Property Intelligence Report

August 2013

Summary Notes

Home price growth continues and has spread to all reported markets.
Foreclosures continue to decrease.
Sales growth tapered from the previous month, quarter, and year.
We discuss the effect of supply constraints on housing.

July Housing Performance

Housing performance in July saw continued improvements in home prices. These improvements have
now spread across all reported markets for the last month and year. Sales growth tapered from the
previous reporting period. While foreclosures continue to decrease from prior reporting periods in most
reported markets.

Home price growth was positive in all of the 42 reported counties over the last month and year.
Home price growth was positive in 41 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Sales increased in 29 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Sales increased in 37 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Sales increased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
Foreclosures decreased in 31 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Foreclosures decreased in 26 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Foreclosures decreased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.

Housing Outlook
Despite concerns about the continued strength of the recovery and job security, potential tax increases,
and uncertainty about domestic fiscal issues, home price growth rates have increased and continue to
spread across more of the country. The main concern about this situation is that sales volumes remain
low and it is unclear if the sharp home price increases would be happening in the presences of more
normal sales volumes. The moderate underlying fundamental home price drivers and economic
uncertainty will eventually contribute to reductions in demand for housing and dampened home price
growth, although the timing of this is very uncertain.

Factor

Comment

Current Situation

Demand for Housing

The level of economic activity

The July employment report

showed job growth, but a a

Property Intelligence Report

August 2013

Supply of Housing

The supply of housing for sale

on the market

Uncertainty

Housing investors face

heightened uncertainty from

national and international
sources. In the presence of
uncertainty, individuals have a

difficult time valuing real estate,

dampening the activity of both

buyers and sellers.

fairly weak rate.

Employment increased by
162,000 in July.
Strict mortgage credit
requirements continue
Housing starts and permits
increased, but given the
recent low levels of
construction activity, these
increases still leave
construction well below more
normal levels.
Sales of existing homes
remain at reduced levels
Several factors lead to
uncertainty about the
persistence of housing
market improvements.
The rate of job creation has
been unsteady.
Domestic fiscal issues,
including the resolution of
the current budget sequester
and reaching the debt ceiling
again in the near future.
Longer term fiscal uncertainty
remains due to unsustainable
deficit levels.
Euro Zone fiscal issues
continue unresolved.

Property Intelligence Report

August 2013

Focus: Supply Constraints and Home Values

Home price growth had been very strong over the last year and has spread to all 42 reported counties.
Average home price growth over the last year in the reported counties was 13.49 percent.
25 of the 42 reported counties experienced home price growth in excess of 10 percent.
Home price growth ranges from 0.29 percent in Suffolk County, New York to 30.66% in
Sacramento, California.
So, what drives this excellent home price appreciation? For an answer it helps to look at differences that
we are experiencing across markets. The graph below shows home price growth, sales growth, and
foreclosure growth. These are reported by tiers, where the tiers are defined by sales growth. We see
that markets with the highest sales growth and foreclosure growth have experienced the lowest rates of
home price growth.

Home Price, Sales, and Foreclosure Growth

30%

20%

10%

0%
Latest Year Sales Growth: Third of Markets with Latest Year Sales Growth: Middle Third of Markets Latest Year Sales Growth: Third of Markets with
Largest Increases
Smallest Increases

-10%

-20%

-30%
Home Price Growth

Sales Growth

Foreclosure Growth

-40%

The markets with higher sales growth include many areas of Florida that had existing (and unoccupied)
properties available to be put on the market.

Property Intelligence Report

August 2013

In contrast, markets with large sales growth rate decreases experienced the highest rate of average
home price appreciation. These are markets primarily in California and Nevada are without
appreciable new construction. Many homeowners in these markets are prevented from selling by being
in negative equity positions. So, while economic drivers including job growth, low interest rates are
driving increases in demand nationwide, in markets with tight supplies of properties available for sale,
prices have been skyrocketing.

Property Intelligence Report

July 2013
Monthly Detail Report
Selected Counties
Single-Family
State
AZ
AZ
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CO
CT
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
GA
IL
IL
MA
MD
MI
MO
MO
NC
NV
NY
NY
OH
OH
OR
TN
TX
TX
UT
VA
WA

County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING

Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle

Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.

Latest Month
1.57%
1.06%
2.00%
1.88%
1.46%
1.33%
1.59%
2.01%
1.46%
1.52%
1.64%
0.96%
0.69%
1.16%
0.96%
1.41%
1.71%
1.25%
0.99%
1.47%
0.58%
0.48%
0.48%
0.37%
0.90%
0.51%
0.83%
0.53%
0.53%
0.40%
2.00%
0.16%
0.04%
0.42%
0.15%
0.96%
0.66%
0.37%
0.37%
0.93%
0.72%
1.15%

Home Price Growth Rate

Latest Quarter
5.14%
3.23%
7.38%
6.59%
5.21%
4.49%
6.17%
7.27%
5.01%
5.45%
5.95%
3.99%
2.62%
4.02%
2.25%
4.23%
5.60%
3.93%
3.45%
4.87%
3.60%
3.07%
2.08%
1.56%
3.68%
1.50%
2.57%
8.04%
8.04%
7.09%
6.74%
0.70%
-0.03%
2.07%
1.29%
3.60%
2.48%
5.70%
5.70%
7.48%
2.37%
4.37%

Latest Year
23.41%
12.97%
29.36%
25.38%
18.73%
16.94%
23.82%
30.66%
18.84%
19.70%
22.77%
14.74%
5.71%
16.03%
9.38%
15.24%
22.35%
14.63%
14.24%
18.61%
13.27%
5.74%
6.50%
5.82%
12.54%
5.76%
12.07%
6.58%
6.58%
5.20%
27.54%
2.20%
0.29%
4.22%
7.35%
16.44%
6.31%
4.84%
4.84%
12.31%
9.68%
17.17%

Latest Month
-26.20%
11.86%
-50.85%
-7.69%
-19.27%
-13.38%
-4.46%
-20.33%
-24.05%
-11.54%
-13.95%
-33.59%
10.34%
-17.74%
-5.75%
32.02%
77.59%
22.39%
-0.72%
-13.39%
-8.31%
30.91%
-20.79%
-29.80%
-49.02%
-7.41%
-16.55%
-29.12%
-18.40%
-26.69%
5.91%
-17.65%
-32.14%
7.22%
-19.61%
5.88%
0.00%
-2.51%
-16.78%
6.00%
-3.45%
-12.93%

Foreclosure Growth Rate

Latest Quarter
-29.38%
16.81%
-37.63%
-41.46%
-14.12%
-7.52%
-12.50%
-35.53%
-35.25%
-34.29%
-22.92%
-36.57%
-15.79%
-6.84%
4.79%
16.67%
33.75%
13.63%
-0.48%
-16.38%
6.19%
-18.55%
22.32%
24.71%
-29.73%
8.70%
-12.10%
-25.46%
19.05%
7.85%
-0.65%
27.27%
-5.00%
19.54%
-1.80%
38.46%
9.76%
-21.27%
-22.10%
29.27%
-20.00%
-21.95%

Latest Year
-55.68%
-26.46%
-63.06%
-61.60%
-46.99%
-43.06%
-53.52%
-57.11%
-62.84%
-55.19%
-56.47%
-55.50%
-38.46%
-7.66%
45.71%
53.57%
46.08%
68.01%
29.65%
-35.48%
8.04%
5.57%
14.60%
45.21%
100.00%
-59.02%
-40.91%
-39.16%
-28.39%
10.13%
-30.08%
55.56%
-17.39%
17.85%
-8.89%
-43.75%
-13.30%
-40.31%
-38.43%
-25.87%
-33.33%
45.45%

Latest Month
-12.65%
14.33%
6.85%
2.39%
8.26%
5.46%
-9.90%
-9.90%
-13.97%
-7.56%
-7.32%
0.88%
21.52%
-3.17%
9.88%
1.08%
11.24%
11.37%
-1.70%
14.01%
-2.03%
39.50%
4.94%
4.48%
23.08%
28.06%
-11.06%
-13.58%
16.10%
4.10%
2.50%
43.61%
6.78%
31.37%
10.34%
0.19%
4.06%
1.61%
5.06%
-4.40%
29.50%
-4.74%

Sales Growth Rate

Latest Quarter
-1.14%
43.75%
50.59%
4.90%
40.31%
51.09%
-0.66%
2.42%
-4.91%
6.00%
15.94%
32.48%
91.09%
17.96%
20.63%
11.49%
44.49%
51.29%
41.15%
17.59%
52.60%
54.37%
44.96%
77.03%
111.69%
86.39%
-22.39%
1.50%
34.21%
37.72%
19.27%
14.03%
-21.46%
2.87%
72.13%
28.04%
55.41%
63.44%
65.06%
40.56%
69.41%
27.00%

Latest Year
-15.14%
2.37%
-12.63%
-16.15%
1.30%
10.91%
-17.37%
-15.60%
-17.53%
-1.83%
-11.95%
8.52%
4.16%
9.07%
23.36%
21.66%
1.66%
32.85%
9.74%
17.20%
16.90%
40.11%
13.26%
20.86%
-4.04%
2.40%
12.68%
-9.23%
18.60%
30.63%
-17.49%
10.72%
17.64%
8.77%
29.17%
8.44%
-2.45%
-0.34%
5.85%
-10.57%
3.45%
9.02%

Property Intelligence Report

July 2013
Monthly Detail Report
Selected Counties
Single-Family
State
AZ
AZ
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CO
CT
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
GA
IL
IL
MA
MD
MI
MO
MO
NC
NV
NY
NY
OH
OH
OR
TN
TX
TX
UT
VA
WA

County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING

Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle

Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.

Current Month
135.8
119.8
139.7
136.0
171.7
162.7
135.5
122.6
146.8
144.0
158.8
137.4
122.4
134.7
117.9
126.9
129.6
144.4
120.3
134.0
126.9
132.8
101.4
114.4
132.0
151.3
84.7
98.6
98.6
116.6
104.9
134.5
132.5
92.8
98.2
155.9
96.1
125.9
125.9
120.0
167.0
144.4

Home Price Indices (Feb 2002 = 100)

Previous Month
Prior Quarter
133.7
129.1
118.6
116.1
136.9
130.1
133.5
127.6
169.2
163.2
160.5
155.7
133.4
127.7
120.2
114.3
144.7
139.8
141.8
136.5
156.3
149.9
136.1
132.1
121.5
119.2
133.1
129.5
116.8
115.3
125.1
121.8
127.4
122.7
142.6
138.9
119.2
116.3
132.1
127.8
126.2
122.5
132.2
128.9
101.0
99.4
114.0
112.7
130.8
127.3
150.5
149.1
84.0
82.6
98.0
91.2
98.0
91.2
116.1
108.9
102.9
98.3
134.3
133.6
132.5
132.6
92.4
90.9
98.0
96.9
154.5
150.5
95.5
93.8
125.5
119.2
125.5
119.2
118.9
111.6
165.8
163.1
142.8
138.4

Prior Year
110.0
106.1
108.0
108.5
144.6
139.1
109.5
93.8
123.5
120.3
129.4
119.7
115.8
116.1
107.8
110.1
105.9
125.9
105.3
113.0
112.1
125.6
95.3
108.1
117.3
143.1
75.6
92.5
92.5
110.8
82.3
131.6
132.1
89.0
91.4
133.9
90.4
120.1
120.1
106.8
152.3
123.3

Current Month
769
264
58
96
511
123
343
196
259
138
37
85
32
422
459
602
428
667
411
291
309
360
926
212
26
25
247
202
275
261
609
14
38
416
328
54
326
311
511
106
28
256

Foreclosures
Previous Month
1042
236
118
104
633
142
359
246
341
156
43
128
29
513
487
456
241
545
414
336
337
275
1169
302
51
27
296
285
337
356
575
17
56
388
408
51
326
319
614
100
29
294

Prior Quarter
1089
226
93
164
595
133
392
304
400
210
48
134
38
453
438
516
320
587
413
348
291
442
757
170
37
23
281
271
231
242
613
11
40
348
334
39
297
395
656
82
35
328

Prior Year
1735
359
157
250
964
216
738
457
697
308
85
191
52
457
315
392
293
397
317
451
286
341
808
146
13
61
418
332
384
237
871
9
46
353
360
96
376
521
830
143
42
176

Current Month
6924
1380
1155
1199
5754
2490
2850
1774
2150
2579
1164
1032
751
2200
1146
1775
1653
1929
1499
1758
1349
1289
2802
979
688
1109
1102
541
1377
1676
3572
382
787
1005
1377
1041
1077
2079
3907
804
720
2394

Sales
Previous Month
7927
1207
1081
1171
5315
2361
3163
1969
2499
2790
1256
1023
618
2272
1043
1756
1486
1732
1525
1542
1377
924
2670
937
559
866
1239
626
1186
1610
3485
266
737
765
1248
1039
1035
2046
3719
841
556
2513

Prior Quarter
7004
960
767
1143
4101
1648
2869
1732
2261
2433
1004
779
393
1865
950
1592
1144
1275
1062
1495
884
835
1933
553
325
595
1420
533
1026
1217
2995
335
1002
977
800
813
693
1272
2367
572
425
1885

Prior Year
8159
1348
1322
1430
5680
2245
3449
2102
2607
2627
1322
951
721
2017
929
1459
1626
1452
1366
1500
1154
920
2474
810
717
1083
978
596
1161
1283
4329
345
669
924
1066
960
1104
2086
3691
899
696
2196