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Property Intelligence Report September 2013

Property Intelligence Report September 2013

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Published by thomascruse
– DataQuick®, a provider of advanced real estate information solutions powered by data, analytics and decisioning has announced in its monthly Property Intelligence Report (PIR) an August decline in the rapid rate of recent housing price growth and an increase in foreclosure activity.
“Housing performance was a mixed bag in August,”...
– DataQuick®, a provider of advanced real estate information solutions powered by data, analytics and decisioning has announced in its monthly Property Intelligence Report (PIR) an August decline in the rapid rate of recent housing price growth and an increase in foreclosure activity.
“Housing performance was a mixed bag in August,”...

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Published by: thomascruse on Oct 01, 2013
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10/18/2013

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Property Intelligence Report
 
Auust 2013
 
Summary Notes
 
Home price growth continues and has spread to all reported markets.
 
Foreclosures continue to decrease.
 
Sales growth tapered from the previous month, quarter, and year.
 
We discuss the effect of supply constraints on housing.
July
Housing Performance
Housing performance in July saw continued improvements in home prices. These improvements havenow spread across all reported markets for the last month and year. Sales growth tapered from theprevious reporting period. While foreclosures continue to decrease from prior reporting periods in mostreported markets.
 
Home price growth was positive in all of the 42 reported counties over the last month and year.
 
Home price growth was positive in 41 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
 
Sales increased in 29 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
 
Sales increased in 37 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
 
Sales increased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
 
Foreclosures decreased in 31 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
 
Foreclosures decreased in 26 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
 
Foreclosures decreased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
Housing Outlook
Despite concerns about the continued strength of the recovery and job security, potential tax increases,and uncertainty about domestic fiscal issues, home price growth rates have increased and continue tospread across more of the country. The main concern about this situation is that sales volumes remainlow and it is unclear if the sharp home price increases would be happening in the presences of morenormal sales volumes. The moderate underlying fundamental home price drivers and economicuncertainty will eventually contribute to reductions in demand for housing and dampened home pricegrowth, although the timing of this is very uncertain.
Factor Comment Current Situation
Demand for Housing The level of economic activity
 
The July employment reportshowed job growth, but a a
 
 
Property Intelligence Report
 
Auust 2013
 
fairly weak rate.
 
Employment increased by162,000 in July.
 
Strict mortgage creditrequirements continueSupply of Housing The supply of housing for saleon the market
 
Housing starts and permitsincreased, but given therecent low levels of construction activity, theseincreases still leaveconstruction well below morenormal levels.
 
Sales of existing homesremain at reduced levelsUncertainty Housing investors faceheightened uncertainty fromnational and internationalsources. In the presence of uncertainty, individuals have adifficult time valuing real estate,dampening the activity of bothbuyers and sellers.
 
Several factors lead touncertainty about thepersistence of housingmarket improvements.
 
The rate of job creation hasbeen unsteady.
 
Domestic fiscal issues,including the resolution of the current budget sequesterand reaching the debt ceilingagain in the near future.
 
Longer term fiscal uncertaintyremains due to unsustainabledeficit levels.
 
Euro Zone fiscal issuescontinue unresolved.
 
 
Property Intelligence Report
 
Auust 2013
 
Focus: Supply Constraints and Home Values
Home price growth had been very strong over the last year and has spread to all 42 reported counties.
 
Average home price growth over the last year in the reported counties was 13.49 percent.
 
25 of the 42 reported counties experienced home price growth in excess of 10 percent.
 
Home price growth ranges from 0.29 percent in Suffolk County, New York to 30.66% inSacramento, California.So, what drives this excellent home price appreciation? For an answer it helps to look at differences thatwe are experiencing across markets. The graph below shows home price growth, sales growth, andforeclosure growth. These are reported by tiers, where the tiers are defined by sales growth. We seethat markets with the highest sales growth and foreclosure growth have experienced the lowest rates of home price growth.
Home Price, Sales, and Foreclosure Growth
The markets with higher sales growth include many areas of Florida that had existing (and unoccupied)properties available to be put on the market.
 
-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Latest Year Sales Growth: Third of Markets withLargest IncreasesLatest Year Sales Growth: Middle Third of MarketsLatest Year Sales Growth: Third of Markets withSmallest IncreasesHome Price GrowthSales GrowthForeclosure Growth

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