TRANSNATIONAL

I N S T I T U T E

NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE

THE FUTURE OF THE CEASE-FIREAGREEMENTS IN BURMA

Author

om Kramer

Copy editor

David Aronson

Design

Guido Jelsma

Photo credits

om Kramer

Printing

Drukkerij PrimaveraQuintAmsterdam

Financial Contributions

Ministry o Foreign Aairs(Netherlands)

Contact:

ransnational InstituteDe Wittenstraat 251052 AK AmsterdamNetherlandsel: 31-20-6626608Fax: 31-20-6757176tkramer@tni.orgwww.tni.orgTe contents o this document can be quoted or reproduced as long as the source is mentioned. NI wouldappreciate receiving a copy o the text in which this document is used or cited. o receive inormationabout NI’s publications and activities, we suggest that you subscribe to our bi-weekly bulletin by sending arequest to: tni@tni.org or registering at www.tni.orgAmsterdam, July 2009

M a i n a r m e d g r o u p s i n n o t h e r n B u r m a . A r e a s a r e a p p r o x i m a t e , s t a t u s o  s o m e g r o u p s c h a n g e d

Introduction

Burma: Ethnic Conict and Military Rule

Conict ActorsIndependence and Civil WarMilitary RuleCold War Alliances

The Democracy Movement

The Making of the Cease-re Agreements

The Fall of the CPBThe First Round of Crease-resThe NDF and the Second Round of Cease-resKachin Independence Organisation (KIO)Thai PressureNew Mon State Party (NMSP)Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP)Karen National Union (KNU)Surrender of the Mong Tai Army (MTA)Contents of the Agreements

Special Regions MediatorsBreak-away Groups Militias

Goals and Strategies of Cease-re Groups

United Wa State Party (UWSP)Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO)Pao National Organisation (PNO)New Mon State Party (NMSP)Other GroupsLeadership StyleGoverning CapacityVision for Socio-Economic DevelopmentVision for Political ChangeAbuses Against the Population

Impact of the Truces

End of FightingReduce Human Rights ViolationsResettlement of Refugees and IDPsTravel and CommunicationSpace for DevelopmentSpace for Civil SocietyLack of Political ProgressExpansion of the Burma ArmyCorruption

The Cease-re Economy

InfrastructureTrade and InvestmentMono-PlantationsInvestment from AbroadLoggingMiningDrugs Trade

International Responses to the Cease-res

The Role of Neighbouring CountriesThe US and EuropeIsolation

Prospects for the Future

The National Convention

The SPDC’s ‘Seven Step Roadmap’

Khint Nyunt’s FallThe 2008 ConstitutionThe 2008 ReferendumThe Elections of 2010Disarmament or ‘Border Guard Force’?The Future: War or Peace?

ConclusionNotes AbbreviationsBibliography

Contents

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