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Future of Ceasefire Agreement

Future of Ceasefire Agreement

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Published by: tjburma on Jul 13, 2009
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TRANSNATIONAL
I N S T I T U T E
NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE
THE FUTURE OF THE CEASE-FIREAGREEMENTS IN BURMA
 
Author
om Kramer
Copy editor
David Aronson
Design
Guido Jelsma
Photo credits
om Kramer
Printing
Drukkerij PrimaveraQuintAmsterdam
Financial Contributions
Ministry o Foreign Aairs(Netherlands)
Contact:
ransnational InstituteDe Wittenstraat 251052 AK AmsterdamNetherlandsel: 31-20-6626608Fax: 31-20-6757176tkramer@tni.orgwww.tni.orgTe contents o this document can be quoted or reproduced as long as the source is mentioned. NI wouldappreciate receiving a copy o the text in which this document is used or cited. o receive inormationabout NI’s publications and activities, we suggest that you subscribe to our bi-weekly bulletin by sending arequest to: tni@tni.org or registering at www.tni.orgAmsterdam, July 2009
   M  a   i   n  a   r   m  e    d  g   r  o  u   p  s   i   n   n  o   t    h  e   r   n   B  u   r   m  a .   A   r  e  a  s  a   r  e  a   p   p   r  o  x   i   m  a   t  e ,  s   t  a   t  u  s  o      s  o   m  e  g   r  o  u   p  s  c    h  a   n  g  e    d
 
 
Introduction
Burma: Ethnic Conict and Military Rule
Conict ActorsIndependence and Civil WarMilitary RuleCold War Alliances
The Democracy Movement 
The Making of the Cease-re Agreements
The Fall of the CPBThe First Round of Crease-resThe NDF and the Second Round of Cease-resKachin Independence Organisation (KIO)Thai PressureNew Mon State Party (NMSP)Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP)Karen National Union (KNU)Surrender of the Mong Tai Army (MTA)Contents of the Agreements
Special Regions MediatorsBreak-away Groups Militias
Goals and Strategies of Cease-re Groups
United Wa State Party (UWSP)Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO)Pao National Organisation (PNO)New Mon State Party (NMSP)Other GroupsLeadership StyleGoverning CapacityVision for Socio-Economic DevelopmentVision for Political ChangeAbuses Against the Population
Impact of the Truces
End of FightingReduce Human Rights ViolationsResettlement of Refugees and IDPsTravel and CommunicationSpace for DevelopmentSpace for Civil SocietyLack of Political ProgressExpansion of the Burma ArmyCorruption
The Cease-re Economy 
InfrastructureTrade and InvestmentMono-PlantationsInvestment from AbroadLoggingMiningDrugs Trade
 
International Responses to the Cease-res
The Role of Neighbouring CountriesThe US and EuropeIsolation
Prospects for the Future
The National Convention
The SPDC’s ‘Seven Step Roadmap’ 
Khint Nyunt’s FallThe 2008 ConstitutionThe 2008 ReferendumThe Elections of 2010Disarmament or ‘Border Guard Force’?The Future: War or Peace?
ConclusionNotes AbbreviationsBibliography 
Contents
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