S
CORECARD
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION REPORT
— July 13, 2009 Edited by the Research Team of
The Manual of Ideas
Performance of Past Monthly Picks versus S&P 500
*
On this page, we provide a quick update on past recommendations and let you know if it’s time to sell.
Recommended Latest Price Price S&P 500Price Date as of 7/13/09 Change ChangeGreenlight Capital Re / GLRE
HOLD
Valuation gap has narrowed, but we continue to like David Einhorn's investment strategy and portfolio.
$10.85 12/5/08 $17.30
+59.4%
+2.5%
EchoStar / SATS
HOLD
Tivo ruling increases downside risk, but company remains cheap.
$14.84 1/16/09 $15.64
+5.4%
+5.9%
Microsoft / MSFT
BUY
Trades at discount to sum-of-parts valuation of business units.
$19.71 1/16/09 $23.23
+17.9%
+5.9%
Capital Southwest / CSWC
BUY
Trades at wide discount to fair value of investment portfolio.
$87.69 2/9/09 $73.63
-16.0%
+3.6%
K-Swiss / KSWS
BUY
Trades close to tangible book value, despite good normalized economics and excellent management.
$7.80 3/20/09 $9.66
+23.8%
+17.5%
Sierra Wireless / SWIR
HOLD
Gap to fair value has narrowed. While the upside remains large, the downside risk has increased.
$2.89 3/20/09 $5.55
+92.0%
+17.5%
Harvest Natural Resources / HNR
BUY
Shares trade at steep discount to estimated fair value.
$3.51 4/14/09 $4.36
+24.2%
+6.8%
Gravity Co. / GRVY
BUY
Shares trade below net cash despite major profitability inflection point.
$0.95 4/14/09 $1.45
+52.6%
+6.8%
MI Developments / MIM
BUY
Shares trade at steep discount to fair value of real estate holdings.
$8.64 5/21/09 $8.62
-0.2%
+1.0%
WellCare Health Plans / WCG
BUY
Shares trade below net cash despite profitable operations.
$19.04 5/21/09 $17.29
-9.2%
+1.0%
Kenneth Cole Productions / KCP
BUY
Shares trade at discount to estimated fair value.
$7.00 6/26/09 $6.60
-5.7%
-1.9%
KHD Humboldt Wedag / KHD
BUY
Shares trade in line with adjusted net cash; business value is “free.”
$8.28 6/26/09 $8.30
+0.2%
-1.9%
Closed Out Positions:Recommended Closed Out Price Change S&P 500 ChangePrice Date Price Date Absolute Annualized Abs. Ann.Crawford (CRD-A, CRD-B)
(pair trade)
$2.89** 2/9/09 $1.02** 6/28/09 65% 271% 6% 15%
* We measure the performance of the S&P 500 Index by the price changes of the S&P Depositary Receipts (SPY), which is an investable vehicle for the S&P 500.** Represents spread rather than market price. Percentage return represents percentage narrowing of arbitrage spread.
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