HamptonUniversity TheCenterforPublicPolicy VirginiaStatewideLikelyVoterPoll October,2013

EXECUTIVESUMMARY: DemocraticcandidateTerry McAuliffeholdsafive(5)pointleadover th RepublicancandidateKen CuccinelliintheNovember5 GeneralElectionfor VirginiaGovernoraccordingtoaHamptonUniversity CenterforPublicPolicy pollreleasedtoday.ThepollwasconductedonSeptember2526and2829and included804registeredvoterswhosaidtheywerelikelytovoteinthe th November5 contest.

McAuliffeLeadsbyFivePointsNooneisNear50%: Ifthe2013GeneralElectionforGovernorwereheldtoday,42%oflikely votersindicatedtheywouldvoteforDemocraticcandidate,TerryMcAuliffe,while 37%saidtheywouldsupportRepublicancandidateKenCuccinelli.Libertarian candidate,RobertSarvis,received8%support. SarvisisemergingasafactorintheGovernorsraceandisfindingsome tractionwithasmall,butsignificantsegmentoftheelectoratethatisdissatisfied withboth McAuliffeandCuccinelli. Sarvissupportisstillinthesingledigits,butspansvoterswhoidentifywith differentpartiesonthepoliticalspectrum.Fiftyeight(58%)percentofSarvis supportersareIndependents,22percentareDemocratsand21percentare Republicans. Thegubernatorialraceisverycloseandcangoeitherwayatthispoint.In ordertowin,Cuccinellineedsabreakoutmomenttoovercomethesingledigitlead thatMcAuliffehashadforweeks.

RaceandTheGovernorsRace: CHARTI

BothMcAuliffeandCucinelliareinanetnegativepositionwithmorelikely votersholdinganunfavorableviewratherthanafavorableviewtowardsthem. Overall,McAuliffehasafavorableratingof31percentandanunfavorablerating of37percent.Cuccinellihasafavorableratingof33percentandanunfavorable ratingof47percent.

Favorable/UnfavorableRatingsintheVirginiaGovernorsRace: CHARTII

LieutenantGovernorsRace: Historically,theraceforLieutenantGovernorisovershadowedbytherace forVirginiasnumberonespot.However,thisyeartheLieutenantGovernors raceisheatingupamidcontroversialstatementslandingthecandidatesina statisticaltie. With39percentofthevote,RepublicancandidateE.W.Jacksonleads DemocratRalphNorthamwhocaptured38percentofthevotefromrespondents polled.Twentythree(23)percentoflikelyvotersareundecidedontheLieutenant Governorsraceleavingfourweeksforimprovementfrombothcandidates. BothcandidatesforLieutenantGovernorarenotverywellknownbylikely voters.Overall,Jacksonhasafavorableratingof17percentandanunfavorable ratingof18percent.Sixtysevenpercentoflikelyvotersarenotfamiliarenough withJacksontoratehim.NorthamisevenlesswellknownthatJackson.Overall,

hehasafavorableratingof14percentandanunfavorableratingof6percent. EightypercentofthevotersarenotfamiliarenoughwithNorthamtoratehim.

TheAttorneyGeneralsrace: IntheAttorneyGeneralsrace,RepublicanMarkObenshainhas41percent votersupportandDemocratMarkHerringhas37percent.Similartotheballot questionintheraceforLieutenantGovernor,bothcandidatesarenotverywell known. Overall,Obenshainhasafavorableratingof20percentandanunfavorable ratingof9percent.Sixtyonepercentoflikelyvotersarenotfamiliarenoughwith himtoratehim.Herringhasafavorableratingof14percentandanunfavorable ratingof6percent.Therefore,80percentoflikelyvotersarenotfamiliarenough withHerringtoratehim. Twentythree(23)percentoflikelyvotersremainundecidedinracefor AttorneyGeneralofVirginia.

TheRaceandGenderGaps: ThemainfactorsaccountingforMcAuliffesleadatthispointareraceand gender. McAuliffessupportisstrongamongwomenandAfricanAmericans. Thesetwovotersegmentsareprovidinghimwiththelead.Amongwomenvoters, McAuliffehas47percent,Cuccinellihas32percentandSarvishas7percent. Amongwhitewomen,thetwoarestatisticallytied,McAuliffe41percent Cuccinelli 40percentvotersupport. Sarvishas7percent.However,among AfricanAmericanwomen,McAuliffeleadswith71percenttoCuccinellis2 percentvotersupport.Sarvishas7percent. Basedonhistoricaverages,AfricanAmericanswillaccountfor approximately sixteen(16)percentofallvotersonelectionday.McAullifes supportamongthiskeyvotergroupisprovidinghimwiththelead.Among AfricanAmericanvoters,McAuliffehas73percent,andbothCuccinelli and

Sarvishave5percenteach.Amongwhitevoters, Cuccinellihas45percentvoter support,McAuliffe37percentandSarvis8percent. WhileMcAuliffehasnetnegativeratingsamongwhitevoters,30percent rateMcAuliffefavorablyand40percentunfavorably,hehasnetpositiveratings amongAfricanAmericanvoters.Thirtynine(39)percentofAfricanAmericans rateMcAuliffefavorably and21percentunfavorably. Ken CuccinelliisatadistinctdisadvantageamongAfricanAmericans.Only 10percentratehim asfavorablewhile52percentratehim asunfavorable.Among whitevoters,37percentrateCuccinelli asfavorableand46percentasunfavorable.

RegionalBreakdown: McAuliffedominatesinthefastgrowingWashingtonD.C.suburbswith50 percentvotersupport.Cuccinellihas29percentandSarvishas9percent.The WashingtonD.C.suburbswillaccountfor25percentoftheoverallvoteandis McAuliffeshomebase. IntheNorthernVirginiaexurbs,Cuccinellishomebase,Cuccinellihasa strongleadwith 45percentvotersupport. McAuliffehas33percentandSarvis has8percent. InthegreaterRichmondarea,Cuccinellihas35percent,McAuliffehas43 percentandSarvishas9percent. Theraceistighterin CentralVirginia, McAuliffehas47percent, Cuccinellihas51percentandSarvishas4percent. IntheHamptonRoads/Tidewaterarea,McAuliffehas49percent,Cuccinelli has30percentandSarvishas8percent. InSouthwesternVirginia,Cuccinellihas48percent,McAuliffehas31 percentandSarvishas9percent. Finally,inSoutheasternVirginia,McAuliffehas46percent,Cuccinellihas 37percentandSarvishas8percent.

VoterSupportintheGovernorsRaceByRegion: CHARTIII

Partisanship: DemocratMcAuliffeismaximizingvotersupportamongDemocratswho slightly outnumberRepublicansandIndependentsinVirginia.McAuliffealso receivesmorevotesfrom Republicans,accordingtoourpoll,than Cuccinelli receivesamongDemocrats. TheraceistiedamongIndependents,whotendto solidifytheirdecisionsclosertoelectionday.Thesplitinsupportamong IndependentssharedbyMcAuliffeandCuccinelliisabigpartofwhatiskeeping theraceveryclose. AmongDemocrats,McAuliffehas83percent,Sarvishas5percentand Cuccinellihas4percent. AmongRepublicans,Cuccinellihas78percent,McAuliffehas9percentand Sarvishas5percent.

AmongIndependents,Cuccinellihas33percent,McAuliffehas33percent, andSarvishas15percent. Ifreasonablepredictivemodelsholdtrue,Democratswilllikelyaccountfor 35percentoftheelectorate. Independentswillaccountfor33percentand Republicanswillaccountfor33percent. Ifvoterturnoutreflectsthesenumbers,thentheGovernorsracewillremain exceedinglyclose.

IssuesofImportance,CreatingJobsandImprovingEducation: Votersweregiventheopportunitytoratetheissues[that]shouldbethetop priorityofthenextGovernor,andoverwhelmingly,respondentschoseworking toimprovetheeconomyandcreatejobsastheirnumberonechoiceforthenext GovernorofVirginiatoprioritize.Thirtyseven(37)percentoftherespondents listeditasthemostimportanceissuefacingVirginians. Capturingthesecondspotwasimprovingpubliceducation,which24 percentofthosepolledidentifyingthatasthemostimportantissue.Ten (10) percentofthosepolledsaidthatHealthcare/Obamacareshouldbeapriorityof thenextGovernor. Reducingtaxes,governmentspending,improvingtrafficflowandlessening congestion,and,eliminatingcorruptioningovernmentreceivedmuchlower numbersofsupportfromrespondents,despitesomeofthecurrentbudgetbattles takingplaceinWashington,D.C.

VotersMixedon ConfidenceintheCandidates: AttorneyGeneralKen Cuccinellisvotersupportishamperedbyhigh unfavorableratings,buthefareswell againstTerry McAuliffeinaseriesof questionsaboutconfidenceinthegubernatorialcandidates. WhenaskedwhichofthetwomaincandidatesforGovernorwouldbebetter athavingtherightkindofexperienceinstateGovernmenttobeGovernor, 42

percenthavemoreconfidenceinCuccinelli.Only 35percentofrespondents believeMcAuliffehastherightkindofexperiencetobeGovernor. Likelyvoterspolledwerealsoasked,whichofthetwomaincandidatesfor Governorwouldbebetteratlookingoutforworkingandmiddleclassfamilies? Fortytwo(42)percentofrespondentsindicatedMcAuliffe,while36percent indicatedCuccinelli. Fortyseven(47)percentofrespondentschoseCuccinelliasthecandidate forGovernorwhowouldbebetteratcuttingtaxes. Only26percentchose McAuliffe. WhenaskedwhichofthetwomaincandidatesforGovernorwouldbebetter atprotectingVirginiasfinancesandmaintainingthebudgetsurplus,41 percent indicatedCuccinelliisthebetterchoice. Only 34percentbelieveMcAuliffetobe thebestchoiceinhandlingfinances. Finally,Virginiavoterslikelytoparticipateintheupcomingelectionfor Governoraresplitonthebestcandidatetocreatejobsandstrengthenthebusiness climateintheCommonwealth.Forty(40)percentindicatedMcAuliffewasthebest choice.Thirtyeight(38)percentsaidthatCuccinelliwouldbethebestchoicein thisregard.
CandidateAttributesintheVirginiaGovernorsRace: CHARTIV

VotersShowOptimism: TheoverallmoodofthevotersinVirginiaisgood. Whenaskedwhether thingsinVirginiaaregenerallygoingintherightdirection,50percentoflikely votersagreethatthingsaregoingintherightdirection.Only 33percentindicated thingsareonthewrongtrack. Surveyrespondentsareevenmoreoptimisticabouttheregioninwhich theylive.Sixtytwo(62)percentsaidclosertohomethingsaregoingintheright directionandonly29percentsaidlocallythingsareonthewrongtrack. ThismaybethereasonthatGovernorBobMcDonnellsapprovalratings remainsohigh.DespitethenegativepublicitysurroundingGovernorMcDonnell lately,55percentapproveofthejobBobMcDonnellisdoingasGovernor. Thirty(30%)percentofrespondentsdisapprove,fifteen(15%)percentoflikely voterswerenotsure. VirginiaVotersWantTermLimits

MembersoftheGeneralAssemblyof Virginiamaybeshockedtolearnthat thepeopletheyrepresentoverwhelminglysupporttermlimits.Ofthelikely voters,80percentsaymembersoftheGeneralAssemblyinRichmond[should] havetermlimits.Only13percentsaidtheydonotsupporttermlimits.Seven(7) percentwereundecided. Fortysevenpercent(47percent)ofsurveyrespondentsagreedthatifterm limitsformembersoftheGeneralAssemblyweretobeinstituted,thelimitshould befortwoterms.Twentythree(23)percentsaidthattermsshouldbelimitedto threeterms. PresidentBarackObama: DespitehavingwontwostatewideelectionsinVirginia,PresidentBarack ObamasapprovalratinghasfallenintheCommonwealth.Amongsurvey respondents,PresidentObamareceiveda47percentapprovalratingwith50 percentdisapprovingofthejobhehasdoneoverall.Three(3)percentwerenot sure.WhenaskedhowBarackObamaisdoinginhandlingtheeconomy,45% approved,51%disapproved,and4%notsure.AsitrelatestoPresidentObamas handlingforeignpolicy,44%approved,50%disapproved,and6%wereunsure.

Methodology: Thestatewidesurveywasconductedbyaprofessionalcallcenterforthe CenterforPublicPolicyofHamptonUniversity underthegeneraldirection of KellyHarveyGill,JD. Liveinterviewswereconductedviatelephone(20%cell phoneand80%landline)fromSeptember2526and2829,2013.Interviewswere stratifiedbycountiesandcitiestoreflecthistoricvotertrends.Thissurveywas conductedusingalistedsamplepurchasedfromSSI,Inc,(SurveySampling International).Weightingtechniqueswereusedtoachieverepresentativeage groupings.Theoverallmarginoferrorfortheentiresampleof800likelyvotersis

+/2.9%ata95percentconfidenceinterval.Themarginoferrorforsubgroups likegeographicregionsishigher. Thepartyandgeographicbreakdownofthesurveyisasfollows: 36% Democrat31%Independentand33%Republican. Geographicbreakdownsbyregionareasfollows: 25%WashingtonD.C. suburbs10%NorthernVirginiaexurbs18%Richmondarea6%Central Virginia17%HamptonRoads/Tidewater5%Southeast and19%Southwest. RonaldLesterofLesterandAssociates(Democraticpollster)andKellyanne Conwayof thePollingCompany(RepublicanPollster)servedastechnical consultantsinthedesignandanalysisofthesurvey.