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THE
XINJIANG
PRO BLEM
Graham E. Fuller
S. Frederick Starr
\u00a9 Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
The Johns Hopkins University
Tel.: 1 202 663 7723
M w alke21@jhu.edu
T he X injiang Problem
3
Table of Contents

Introduction: T he Xinjiang Project............................................. 1 I. W hat is the Problem in Xinjiang?........................................... 4 II. T he Geopolitical Realities: a Primer......................................10 III. W hat Do T he Key Players W ant?.......................................16

Uyghur Grievances.................................................................................. 16 U yghur Goals and A ctions........................................................................22 China\u2019s Grievances..................................................................................26 China\u2019s Goals and A ctions........................................................................30

IV. W hat Is At Stake? W hy The Xinjiang Problem Matters........ 33

Implications for Ethnic M inorities.............................................................. 33 U yghurs and the M uslim W orld................................................................. 34 T errorism.............................................................................................. 40 China and Regional Geopolitics..................................................................43 H uman Rights Issues................................................................................47 Economic Factors......................................................................................47

V. Four Alternative Scenarios. ................................................ 50

A Floundering China................................................................................ 51 A H ostile and Belligerent China.................................................................52 A Successful and T riumphal China.............................................................54 A Successful, Liberalizing, and Restrained China.........................................56

VI. Key External Variables In The Evolution Of The Uyghur
Problem...............................................................................59
T he Pace of S tability, Progress and Ref orm in Greater Central A sia...............59
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