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GOP could lose the House in 2014

GOP could lose the House in 2014

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Published by MoveOn_org
This is a polling memo that provides an overview of 24 surveys conducted in GOP-held House districts in the days after the 2013 government shutdown.
This is a polling memo that provides an overview of 24 surveys conducted in GOP-held House districts in the days after the 2013 government shutdown.

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Categories:Topics
Published by: MoveOn_org on Oct 06, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/25/2014

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Public Policy Polling2912 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
MEMORANDUM
October 6, 2013TO: Interested PartiesFROM: Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling
RE: 24 new polls show GOP in grave danger of losing House in wake of government shutdown
If the 2014 elections were held today, Republicans would be in grave danger of losingcontrol of the House of Representatives, according to a series of 24 surveys conducted byPublic Policy Polling in Republican-held House districts over the past few days. Thesurveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats.The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, showRepublican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests withgeneric Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbentRepublican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that theRepublican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts doRepublican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told theincumbent supported the government shutdown.Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House. These poll results makeclear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach.The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07,MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07
 
Public Policy Polling2912 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads after voters are told theRepublican incumbent supported a shutdown are:CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02The districts where the incumbent Republican leads in both head-to-head ballot tests are:CA-21, NV-03, OH-06Unsurprisingly, majorities of respondents in every poll indicated that they "opposeCongress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop thehealth care law from being put into place."The snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,with sample sizes ranging from 600-700 voters.Click hereto view a snapshot of the results.Full results from each district follow.

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