Professional Documents
Culture Documents
demanda de chapas
precio unitario chapa
costo de produccion
variacion de la demanda anual
costos fijos anuales
inversion
periodo de depreciacion
valor de deshecho
capital de trabajo inicial
variacion anual de capital
tasa de descuento
tasa impuesto
200,000
2
1.7
10.00%
20000
150000
7
20000
30000
10%
15%
30%
unidades
dolares
dolares
porcentaje
dolares
dolares
aos
dolares
Variables en el tiempo
0
consumo de tapas
capital de trabajo anual
capital de trabajo incremental
depreciacion
1
200,000
30,000
21,429
2
222,000
33,000
3,000
21,429
3
246,420
36,300
3,300
21,429
Flujo de Capital
0
(150,000)
(30,000)
(3,000)
(3,300)
(3,630)
(180,000)
(3,000)
(3,300)
(3,630)
Ingresos
60,000
66,600
73,926
Egresos
* Costo fijo
* Depreciacin
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
Total Egresos
41,429
41,429
41,429
U.A.I.
Impuestos
18,571
5,571
25,171
7,551
32,497
9,749
U. Neta
(+) Depreciacin
13,000
21,429
17,620
21,429
22,748
21,429
Fondos Generados
34,429
39,049
44,177
Capital
Operativo
(180,000)
-
(3,000)
34,429
(3,300)
39,049
(3,630)
44,177
F.C. Econmico
(180,000)
31,429
35,749
40,547
VAN
TIR
S/. 87,120.16
23.91%
Punto de Equilibrio
Analisis de escenarios
esperado
tasa crec. 1 al 3 periodo
tasa crec. 4 al 6 periodo
tasa crec. Desde el 7 periodo
optimista
10%
5%
5%
pesimista
15%
20%
15%
5%
0%
0%
punto muerto
funcion objetivo
Analisis de sensibilidad
Tasa de crecimiento del precio
tasa de crecimiento del costo
tasa de crecimiento de consumo
tasa deCPPC
Columna1
precio
0%
0%
10%
15%
van
tir
S/. 87,120.16
23.91%
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-20%
-10%
costo
S/. 87,120.16
23.91%
-110052.3174 -0.05706487
-72195.89493 0.031990593
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
crecimiento
-45508.75085
-11566.32506
31747.24071
87120.15762
248475.6156
0.082630442
0.134710651
0.187071905
0.239120336
0.341434972
cppc
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
precio
costo
(274,142)
379,343
(97,524)
229,218
(9,215)
154,156
79,093
79,093
167,402
4,031
255,711
(71,032)
432,328
(221,156)
crecimiento
-105539.558
-68834.1876
-43434.3164
-11566.3251
28537.50001
79093.27974
223267.5329
cppc
3224563.037
1147480.937
707557.5939
438371.8332
267478.238
155216.0992
25933.44495
VAN
200,000
100,000
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
(100,000)
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
precio
variaciones
costo
Analisis Bidimensional
costo
S/. 87,120.16
-20%
-10%
-20%
32,530
(122,144)
-10%
214,498
59,825
-5%
305,483
150,809
0%
396,467
241,794
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
(199,481)
(276,817)
(354,154)
(431,491)
(586,164)
(17,512)
73,473
(94,849)analisis
(3,864)
de
(172,185)
(81,201)
(249,522)
(158,538)
(404,195)
(313,211)
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
(200,000)
(400,000)
(600,000)
(800,000)
164,457
87,120
sensibilidad
bid
9,783
(67,553)
(222,227)
VAN
precio
variacion
VAC
10%
Mquina A
Mquina B
CAE A
CAE B
(1.436) (1.000)
(1.173)
(800)
(100)
(150)
(100)
(150)
(100)
(150)
(330)
(472)
S/. 1,173.03
-800
471.6918429
150
150
150
4
272,294
39,930
3,630
21,429
5
300,885
43,923
3,993
21,429
6
332,478
48,315
4,392
21,429
7
367,388
53,147
4,832
21,429
8
405,964
58,462
5,315
9
448,590
64,308
5,846
10
495,692
70,738
6,431
10
(3,993)
(4,392)
(4,832)
(5,315)
(5,846)
(6,431)
70,738
20000
-6000
(3,993)
(4,392)
(4,832)
(5,315)
(5,846)
(6,431)
84,738
81,688
90,265
99,743
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
41,429
41,429
41,429
41,429
20,000
20,000
20,000
40,260
12,078
48,837
14,651
58,315
17,494
68,788
20,636
101,789
30,537
114,577
34,373
128,708
38,612
28,182
21,429
34,186
21,429
40,820
21,429
48,151
21,429
71,252
-
80,204
-
90,095
-
49,610
55,614
62,249
69,580
71,252
80,204
90,095
110,216
121,789
20000
-
134,577
20000
-
148,708
20000
-
(3,993)
49,610
(4,392)
55,614
(4,832)
62,249
(5,315)
69,580
(5,846)
71,252
(6,431)
80,204
84,738
90,095
45,617
51,222
57,417
64,265
65,406
73,773
174,834
unto de Equilibrio
666,667
666,666.67
ncion objetivo
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-20%
-10%
-5%
van
tir
S/. 87,120.16
23.91%
396466.9202 0.46624814
241793.5389 0.36412843
164456.8483 0.30547847
87120.15762 0.23912034
9783.466969 0.16105214
-67553.22369
0.0628016
-222226.605
#NUM!
S/. 87,120.16
3355265.497
1197133.578
739971.4099
23.91%
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
0%
5%
10%
20%
460259.2936
282721.2332
166135.6709
31974.58002
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
valor en US$
150000
100000
50000
0
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-50000
-100000
-150000
variaciones
5%
487,451
332,778
10%
578,436
423,762
20%
760,404
605,731
Series1
255,441
346,426
528,394
178,104
269,089
451,058
sensibilidad
bidimensional
VAN
100,768
23,431
(131,242)
-5%
0%
191,752
114,415
(40,258)
373,721
296,384
141,711
5% 10% 20%
variacion precio
)
)
(100)
(150)
(100)
(100)
(100)
Datos
demanda de chapas
precio unitario chapa
costo de produccion
variacion de la demanda anual
costos fijos anuales
inversion
periodo de depreciacion
valor de deshecho
capital de trabajo inicial
variacion anual de capital
tasa de descuento
tasa impuesto
200,000
2
1.7
10.00%
20000
150000
7
20000
30000
10%
15%
30%
unidades
dolares
dolares
porcentaje
dolares
dolares
aos
dolares
Variables en el tiempo
consumo de tapas
capital de trabajo anual
capital de trabajo incremental
depreciacion
0
1
1
200,000
30,000
21,429
2
220,000
33,000
3,000
21,429
3
242,000
36,300
3,300
21,429
Flujo de Capital
0
(150,000)
(30,000)
(3,000)
(3,300)
(3,630)
(180,000)
(3,000)
(3,300)
(3,630)
Ingresos
60,000
66,000
72,600
Egresos
* Costo fijo
* Depreciacin
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
Total Egresos
41,429
41,429
41,429
U.A.I.
Impuestos
18,571
5,571
24,571
7,371
31,171
9,351
U. Neta
(+) Depreciacin
13,000
21,429
17,200
21,429
21,820
21,429
Fondos Generados
34,429
38,629
43,249
Capital
Operativo
(180,000)
-
(3,000)
34,429
(3,300)
38,629
(3,630)
43,249
F.C. Econmico
(180,000)
31,429
35,329
39,619
VAN
TIR
S/. 79,093.28
23.22%
S/. 79,093.28
23.22%
Punto de Equilibrio
Analisis de escenarios
esperado
tasa crec. 1 al 3 periodo
tasa crec. 4 al 6 periodo
tasa crec. Desde el 7 periodo
optimista
10%
5%
5%
pesimista
15%
20%
15%
5%
0%
0%
punto muerto
funcion objetivo
Analisis de sensibilidad
Tasa de crecimiento del precio
tasa de crecimiento del costo
tasa de crecimiento de consumo
tasa deCPPC
precio
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-20%
-10%
-20%
-10%
0%
0%
10%
15%
van
S/. 79,093.28
-274141.5842
-97524.15223
-9215.436246
79093.27974
167401.9957
255710.7117
432328.1437
tir
23.22%
#NUM!
0.014857239
0.139221958
0.232201887
0.308973964
0.375756723
0.490568707
S/. 79,093.28
23.22%
-110052.3174 -0.05706487
-72195.89493 0.031990593
costo
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
crecimiento
-45508.75085
-11566.32506
31747.24071
87120.15762
248475.6156
0.082630442
0.134710651
0.187071905
0.239120336
0.341434972
cppc
(274,142)
(97,524)
(9,215)
79,093
167,402
255,711
432,328
costo
379,343
229,218
154,156
79,093
4,031
(71,032)
(221,156)
crecimiento
-105539.558
-68834.1876
-43434.3164
-11566.3251
28537.50001
79093.27974
223267.5329
cppc
3224563.037
1147480.937
707557.5939
438371.8332
267478.238
155216.0992
25933.44495
100,000
-
(100,000)
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
preci
o
variaciones
Analisis Bidimensional
costo
S/. 79,093.28
-20%
-10%
-20%
32,530
(122,144)
-10%
214,498
59,825
-5%
305,483
150,809
0%
396,467
241,794
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
(199,481)
(276,817)
(354,154)
(431,491)
(586,164)
(17,512)
(94,849)
(172,185)
(249,522)
(404,195)
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
(200,000)
(400,000)
(600,000)
(800,000)
73,473
(3,864)
(81,201)
(158,538)
(313,211)
164,457
87,120
9,783
(67,553)
(222,227)
analisis de sensibilidad bi
VAN
precio
variacion
4
266,200
39,930
3,630
21,429
5
292,820
43,923
3,993
21,429
6
322,102
48,315
4,392
21,429
7
354,312
53,147
4,832
21,429
8
389,743
58,462
5,315
9
428,718
64,308
5,846
10
471,590
70,738
6,431
10
(3,993)
(4,392)
(4,832)
(5,315)
(5,846)
(6,431)
70,738
20000
-6000
(3,993)
(4,392)
(4,832)
(5,315)
(5,846)
(6,431)
84,738
79,860
87,846
96,631
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
20000
21,429
41,429
41,429
41,429
41,429
20,000
20,000
20,000
38,431
11,529
46,417
13,925
55,202
16,561
64,865
19,460
96,923
29,077
108,615
32,585
121,477
36,443
26,902
21,429
32,492
21,429
38,641
21,429
45,406
21,429
67,846
-
76,031
-
85,034
-
48,331
53,921
60,070
66,834
67,846
76,031
85,034
106,294
116,923
20000
-
128,615
20000
-
141,477
20000
-
(3,993)
48,331
(4,392)
53,921
(4,832)
60,070
(5,315)
66,834
(5,846)
67,846
(6,431)
76,031
84,738
85,034
44,338
49,528
55,238
61,519
62,000
69,600
169,772
unto de Equilibrio
666,667
666,666.67
ncion objetivo
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-20%
-10%
-5%
van
tir
S/. 79,093.28
23.22%
396466.9202 0.46624814
241793.5389 0.36412843
164456.8483 0.30547847
87120.15762 0.23912034
9783.466969 0.16105214
-67553.22369
0.0628016
-222226.605
#DIV/0!
S/. 79,093.28
3355265.497
1197133.578
739971.4099
23.22%
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
0%
5%
10%
20%
460259.2936
282721.2332
166135.6709
31974.58002
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
0.23912034
100000
50000
0
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
-50000
-100000
-150000
variaciones
5%
487,451
332,778
10%
578,436
423,762
20%
760,404
605,731
Seri
255,441
178,104
100,768
23,431
(131,242)
346,426
269,089
191,752
114,415
(40,258)
528,394
451,058
373,721
296,384
141,711
-5%
0%
5% 10% 20%
variacion precio
nsional VAN
Resumen de escenario
Valores actuales:
Celdas cambiantes:
$J$9
7%
7%
7%
7%
$K$9
2%
2%
2%
2%
$L$9
15%
15%
15%
15%
Celdas de resultado:
$G$23
S/. 38,303.57
S/. 38,303.57
S/. 38,303.57
S/. 38,303.57
$G$24
26%
26%
26%
26%
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.
Anlisis de Sensibilidad
Volumen Prod
Precio
costo
6240
80
60
50000
0
Ingresos
Egresos
variables
fijos
inversion
saldo
tasa
-150000
-150000
6240
80
60
50000
2
499200
3
499200
-374400
-50000
-374400
-50000
-374400
-50000
74800
74800
74800
12%
VAN
TIR
Variacin en el volumen
VAN
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
0%
0%
0%
TIR
S/. 29,656.98
23%
S/. -30,292.73 -0.00160085
S/. -317.88 0.11876638
S/. 14,669.55 0.17611826
S/. 29,656.98 0.23198339
S/. 44,644.41
0.2865798
S/. 59,631.83 0.34008127
S/. 89,606.69 0.44433807
precio
6240
80
60
50000
1
499200
S/. 29,656.98
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
costo
-20%
-10%
-5%
-30292.72959 -120217.292 -165179.574
89606.68732 -317.875364 -45280.1567
149556.3958 59631.8331 14669.5517
209506.1042 119581.542 74619.2602
269455.8127
179531.25 134568.969
329405.5211 239480.958 194518.677
449304.938 359380.375 314418.094
Puntos criticos
VAN =0
Anlisis de Escenarios
esperado
pesimista
4%
optimista
2%
15%
S/. 29,656.98
23%
Variacin en Precio
VAN
TR
S/. 29,656.98
23%
-20%
-210141.855
#NUM!
-10% -90242.43805 -0.28171922
-5% -30292.72959 -0.00160085
0%
29656.97886 0.23198339
5%
89606.68732 0.44433807
10%
149556.3958
0.6445137
20%
269455.8127 1.02380963
0%
-210141.855
-90242.43805
-30292.72959
29656.97886
89606.68732
149556.3958
269455.8127
5%
-255104.1363
-135204.7194
-75255.01093
-15305.30248
44644.40598
104594.1144
224493.5313
10%
-300066.418
-180167.001
-120217.292
-60267.5838
-317.875364
59631.8331
179531.25
20%
-389990.98
-270091.563
-210141.855
-150192.147
-90242.438
-30292.7296
89606.6873
Costo
191060.04
104594.114
61361.1516
18128.1888
-25104.7741
-68337.7369
-154803.663
300000
200000
100000
Precio
0
-20%
-100000
-200000
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
Costo
-200000
-300000
#####
VAN
3953
308
-3337
Prob
672.5
672.5
672.5
0.2
0.7
0.1
3280.5
-364.5
-4009.5
10,761,680.3
132,860.3
16,076,090.3
Varianza
Desviacin Estndar
(VAN - E(VAN)^2*Prob
2,152,336.1
93,002.2
1,607,609.0
3,852,947.3
1,962.9