\ue004ransnational Institute
De Wittenstraat 25
1052 AK Amsterdam
Netherlands
\ue004el: 31-20-6626608
Fax: 31-20-6757176
tkramer@tni.org
www.tni.org

Te contents o\ue005 this document can be quoted or reproduced as long as the source is mentioned. \ue004NI would appreciate receiving a copy o\ue005 the text in which this document is used or cited. \ue004o receive in\ue005ormation about \ue004NI\u2019s publications and activities, we suggest that you subscribe to our bi-weekly bulletin by sending a request to: tni@tni.org or registering at www.tni.org

The Fall of the CPB
The First Round of Crease-\ue000res
The NDF and the Second Round of Cease-\ue000res
Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO)
Thai Pressure
New Mon State Party (NMSP)
Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP)
Karen National Union (KNU)
Surrender of the Mong Tai Army (MTA)
Contents of the Agreements

Special Regions
Mediators
Break-away Groups
Militias

United Wa State Party (UWSP)
Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO)
Pao National Organisation (PNO)
New Mon State Party (NMSP)
Other Groups
Leadership Style
Governing Capacity
Vision for Socio-Economic Development
Vision for Political Change
Abuses Against the Population

End of Fighting
Reduce Human Rights Violations
Resettlement of Refugees and IDPs
Travel and Communication
Space for Development
Space for Civil Society
Lack of Political Progress
Expansion of the Burma Army
Corruption

Infrastructure
Trade and Investment
Mono-Plantations

Logging
Mining
Drugs Trade

The Role of Neighbouring Countries
The US and Europe
Isolation

Khint Nyunt\u2019s Fall
The 2008 Constitution
The 2008 Referendum
The Elections of 2010
Disarmament or \u2018Border Guard Force\u2019?
The Future: War or Peace?

Conclusion
Notes
Abbreviations
Bibliography

12 12 13 13 14 15 15

16 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 19 19

20 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 23

24 25 25 25 26 27 27

30 31 31

34 35 35 35 36

37 38 40 40