Time of issue: 1030 hours IST Dated: 11-10-2013Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/22 (Orange Message)Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, PHAILIN over East central Bay of Bengal:Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.
The very severe cyclonic storm,
over east central Bay of Bengal remainedstationery and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 11
October 2013 near latitude 16.0
N andlongitude 88.5
E, about 520 km south-southeast of Paradip, 530km southeast of Gopalpur, and530km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would move northwestwards and cross north AndhraPradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) byevening of 12
October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained windspeed of 210-220 kmph.Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated trackand intensity of the system are given in the Table below:Date/Time(IST)Position(Lat.
E)Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)Category11-10-2013/083016.0/88.5
gusting to 225Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/113016.4/88.0205-215 gusting to 230Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/173017.0/87.2210-220 gusting to
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm11-10-2013/233017.4/86.5210-220 gusting to
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/053017.9/85.8210-220 gusting to
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm12-10-2013/173019.2/85.0210-220 gusting to
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/053020.2/84.590-100
gusting to 11
0Cyclonic Storm13-10-2013/173021.2/84.280-90 gusting to 100Deep Depression14-10-2013/053022.2/83.840-50 gusting to 60 Depression
(A)Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to veryheavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastalOdisha commencing from 11
October 2013 night. It would continue and extend to interiorOdisha from 12
night. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would alsooccur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh commencing from 11
Oct. night. Isolated heavy tovery heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 12
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail alongand off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hrs. It would increase in intensitythereafter with gale wind speed reaching 210-220 kmph along and off coastal districts of northcoastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and offOdisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough and will become graduallyphenomenal on 12
October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coastduring the above period.
(iii)Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of around 2.5-3.0 m above astronomicaltide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha andSrikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensivedamage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power andcommunication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat fromflying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.