Global Entertainment And Media Outlook 2009–2013PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP |
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Overview
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Overall spending on entertainment and media in Latin America will rise from $57 billion in 2008 to $73 billion in 2013, makingit the fastest-growing region with a compound annual increase of 5.1 percent.
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Latin America was the fastest-growing region in 2008 with a 10.1 percent increase. We expect the recession to lead to a 1percent decline in 2009, but this will be followed by accelerating increases and a return to double-digit growth in 2013.
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Over the five-year period, there will be double-digit compound annual growth in Internet advertising and Internet accessspending, and a 9.2 percent compound annual gain in video games. TV subscriptions will expand at a 6.5 percentcompound annual rate, and filmed entertainment will grow by 4.5 percent compounded annually.
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The remaining segments will average less than 2 percent annually, and recorded music will be lower in 2013 than in 2008.
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Overall advertising will grow by 1.9 percent compounded annually to $23 billion in 2013 from $21 billion in 2008, partlyfuelled by compound annual growth of 17.4 percent in Internet advertising.
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Total consumer/end-user spending will rise to $32 billion in 2013 from $27 billion in 2008, a 3.9 percent compound annualincrease.
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Brazil and Mexico will remain the dominant countries throughout the forecast period, with at Brazil increasing at a CAGR of4.6 percent to $32.9 billion, and Mexico by 4.3 percent compounded annually to $17.4 billion. In combination, they willaccount for 69 percent of total E&M spending in Latin America in 2013.
Internet Access: Wired and Mobile
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Over the next five years Latin America will be the fastest-growing region for Internet access spending
albeit from arelatively low base with a 14.3 percent compound annual increase to $17.4 billion in 2013 from $8.9 billion in 2008.
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Spending rose at double-digit annual rates during the past five years, but will dip to single-digit gains during the next twoyears as the economic environment weakens.
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However, spending will then return to double-digit annual growth during 2011–13 as the economy recovers.
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Infrastructure upgrades, penetration into rural areas, and triple-play packages will drive broadband spending.
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With wired dial-up access spending continuing to decline at a 14.1 percent compound annual rate, wired Internet accessspending will rise at 11 percent compounded annually, growing to $14.2 billion in 2013 from $8.4 billion in 2008.
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The introduction of high-speed mobile wireless networks will stimulate demand for mobile access.
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As a result mobile access will be the fastest-growing component from a small base, expanding from $518 million in 2008 to$3.2 billion in 2013, a 44 percent compound annual increase.
Internet Advertising: Wired and Mobile
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Latin America will remain the smallest region for Internet advertising but the fastest-growing, expanding at a 17.4 percentCAGR to $1.5 billion in 2013 from $660 million in 2008.
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Broadband growth and infrastructure upgrades will expand the platform for wired Internet advertising, which will continue togrow throughout the forecast period, albeit slowing to single digits in 2009 and 2010.
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An emerging mobile Internet access market and the launch of a mobile TV market will expand a developing mobileadvertising market, which will continue to grow at double-digit rates throughout the forecast period from a low base.
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Wired Internet advertising will increase to $1.3 billion in 2013 from $631 million in 2008, a 15.4 percent compound annualincrease.
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Mobile advertising will rise to an estimated $185 million in 2013, up 44.9 percent on a compound annual basis from $29million in 2008.
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Brazil is the largest market in the region, and will also be the fastest-growing, with its overall wired Internet and mobileadvertising market rising at a CAGR of 19.1 percent to break through the $1 billion barrier in 2013.
Television Subscriptions and License Fees
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Television Subscriptions and License Fees in Latin America will grow by 6.5 percent compounded annually to reach $13billion in 2013 from $9.5 billion in 2008.
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