Professional Documents
Culture Documents
■ Executive Summary
– Economic Overview
– NY Capital Markets
– NY Office Leasing
– NY Residential
■ Addenda
– Economic Overview
– NY Capital Markets
– NY Office Leasing
– NY Residential
33
Economic Overview - National
Executive Summary
■ 9.5% unemployment rate highest since 1984; projected to reach 10% by year-end
■ TALF and CMBS Public-Private Investment Program underway to help unfreeze commercial
loan market – market impact TBD
■ 2008 real estate investment activity down 82% versus 2007; 2009 running 86% below 2008
10% 9.5%
9.0%
4%
2%
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
$600
$512
$500
$128
$400 $352
$303
$ Billions
$29
$137
$300 $9 $66
$62
$204
$3 $144
$200
$43
$123 $0.2
$102
$79 $23 $232 $256 $247 $34
$100 $22
$15 $158
$100 $110 $13
$63 $79
$0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009YTD*
$300 BN
$250 BN
$200 BN
$150 BN
$100 BN
$50 BN
$0 BN
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CMBS Non-CMBS
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Trepp, Foresight Analytics, UBS Investment Research
77
Economic Overview - National
CMBS Loan Maturities
$ Billions
$160
$140
CMBS Floating Rate
$120 CMBS Fixed-rate Conduit
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
$265 billion matures from 2009 to 2012; $371 billion matures from 2015 to 2017.
2Q09 CMBS in special servicing up 170% from 4Q08; $14.3 billion to $39.9 billion.
Loan Balance
(Millions)
$60,000
24.0%
$50,000 23.6%
$40,000
$30,000
12.2%
$20,000
11.6%
$10,000 8.7%
6.7% 6.9% 7.1%
1.0%
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
16% all CMBS loans issued since 2000, or $153 billion, on watchlist.
Source: Bloomberg
99
Economic Overview - National
Current Implied Public Market Pricing
Nominal Cap Nominal Cap Nominal Cap Nominal Cap Nominal Cap
Rates for NAV Rates for NAV Rates for NAV Rates for NAV Rates for NAV
Peak: 5.2 Peak: 6.2 Peak: 5.4 Peak: 6.1 Peak: 6.2
Current: 9.0 Current: 8.8 Current: 7.6 Current: 8.6 Current: 9.3
’99-’08 Avg: 7.8 ’99-’08 Avg: 7.9 ’99-’08 Avg: 7.4 ’99-’08 Avg: 7.6 ’99-’08 Avg: 8.2
’99-’05 Avg: 8.7 ’99-’05 Avg: 8.6 ’99-’05 Avg: 8.2 ’99-’05 Avg: 8.3 ’99-’05 Avg: 8.8
%
12
10 9.1
8.5 8.5 8.6
8 7.5
5.5 5.8
6 5.2 5.3
4.9
0
Office Industrial Apartment Mall Strip Center
Peak Current
3,900
3,800
3,400
3,300
3,200
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
National Recessions NYC Em ploym ent NYC Employment Projection
135,000
3,700
130,000
3,600
Thousands of Persons
125,000
120,000
3,500
110,000
3,300
105,000
100,000 3,200
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
National Recessions NYC Employment National Employment
18.0%
16.0% Historical
+40,000*
15.0%
+65,000* 14.3%
14.0% +125,000*
13.2%
13.0%
Vacancy Rate
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
60,000 office using jobs lost since the start of the recession,
approximately 50% of NYC total job loss.
40.0
1290 Ave of the Ame - 1,987,328
277 Park Ave - 1,529,945
1633 Broadway - 2,240,000 335 Madison Ave - 1,046,984 Average = 15.0 MSF per decade
1 Penn Plz - 2,072,136 85 Broad St - 1,040,000
1301 Ave of the Ame - 1,764,411
1 Liberty Plz - 2,121,437 101 Barclay St - 1,140,000
59 Maiden Ln - 1,043,007
Inventory reduced 25 MSF due to
30.0
55 Water St - 3,600,000 787 Seventh Ave - 1,429,610
245 Park Ave - 1,611,046
26 Federal Plz - 1,109,969
9 West 57th St - 1,500,000 1 WFC - 1,461,365 World Trade Center (15 MSF) and
140 Broadway - 1,200,000
1114 Ave of the Ame - 1,310,000 3 WFC - 2,300,000
residential conversion (10 MSF)
1185 Ave of the Ame - 1,000,000 4 WFC - 1,600,000
17.6
20.0
909 Third Ave - 1,125,000
1221 Ave of the Ame - 2,200,000 2 WFC - 2,200,000
767 Fifth Ave - 1,637,379
1251 Ave of the Ame - 1,893,652 7 WTC - 1,855,000
1345 Ave of the Ame - 1,640,000
1515 Broadway - 1,417,450 Financial Sqr - 1,000,301
12.5 383 Madison Ave - 1,200,000
745 Seventh Ave - 1,036,741
2 Penn Plz - 1,500,000
825 Eighth Ave - 1,550,212 5 Times Square - 1,062,203
10.0
1 WTC - 3,958,091
1 NY Plz -2,103,750 Columbus Center - 1,016,000
2 WTC - 3,958,091 388 Greenwich St - 1,600,000 1585 Broadway - 1,220,732 300 Madison Ave - 1,200,000
345 Park Ave - 1,600,519
60 Wall St - 1,587,849 4 Times Square - 1,477,631 7 Times Square - 1,000,000
2 NY Plz - 1,345,919
450 West 33rd St - 1,500,000 7 WTC - 1,700,000
1101 Ave of the Ame - 2,100,000
0.0
620 Eighth Ave - 1,500,000
Note: New buildings identified > 1,000,000 SF; total construction SF includes all new office buildings above 100,000 SF.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
14
14
NY Capital Markets
Manhattan Overview
■ 2009 YTD sales volume down 95% from 2007 peak; down 90% from 2004-2008 average
■ Declining fundamentals, lack of financing and increased yield requirements have caused
values to fall as much as 60%+
■ Only two Midtown Class A office transactions closed in 2009, accounting for 38% of sales
volume YTD
– 1540 Broadway – sale price represents a 6% cap on in-place income and an 8% cap on
stabilized income
– World Wide Plaza – $315 PSF price reportedly includes projected leasing costs
■ The sales of the former Macklowe/EOP properties reflect an estimated value decline (from
1/07 prices) of 30% for those properties sold in 2008, and 65% for those properties sold in
2009
$55.0 $1,000
$875
$50.0 $900
$45.0 $749 $800
$40.0 $700
$35.0
$549 $600
$30.0 $475
$421
$443 $434 $500
$25.0
$336 $308
$340
(2) $400
$20.0 $392
$253
$15.0 $300
$10.0 $200
$5.0 $100
$1.8B
$0.0 $0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
# of Deals 128 173 155 111 78 58 83 165 170 259 346 191 28
Total Midtown and Midtown South Downtown Weighted Average Midtown Class A Office Price PSF
4%
10%
REIT REIT
19% 18%
Foreign
Foreign 13%
13%
Private Capital
Private Capital 56%
55%
Private
Capital
Foreign
37%
39%
Private Capital
33% Pension
Fund
33%
Cap Rate
10.00% 10.00%
9.00% 9.00%
7.91%
8.00% 7.58% 8.00%
7.30% 7.34%
7.00% 6.34% 7.00%
6.00%
6.00% 6.00%
4.93%
5.00% 4.64% 4.45% 5.00%
4.04%
4.00% 3.55% 4.00%
3.00% 3.00%
2.00% 2.00%
1.00% 1.00%
0.00% 0.00%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09*
Under Contract Office $110,000,000 AIG, Inc. AIG will vacate in December 2010.
Closed 7/09 Office $605,000,000 Deutsche Bank Price reportedly includes projected
leasing costs; 40% vacant.
Approximately $470 million seller
825 Eighth Avenue 1,919,000 SF $315 PSF George Comfort & Sons,
financing.
(World Wide Plaza) Longview Capital and
DRA Advisors
Closed 1Q09 Condo Unit $355,000,000 Deutsche Bank Sale of the office condominium
portion of the property. 78% leased
at time of sale; price represents a
1540 Broadway 905,533 SF $392 PSF CBRE Investors
6% cap on in-place income. Part of
the 2007 EOP/Macklowe portfolio
transaction.
Closed 1Q09 Condo Unit $225,000,000 New York Times New York Times entered into a 10-
year sale-leaseback transaction for
21 floors or 58% of the building. Sale
620 Eighth Avenue 750,000 SF $300 PSF W.P. Carey & Co.
price represents an 11% coupon.
(New York Times Building)
New York Times has an option to
purchase the property at end of
lease at set price.
19
19
NY Office Leasing Market
Overview
Manhattan
■ Leasing statistics through 3Q08 lagged downturn; showing impact 4Q08 - 2Q09
■ Vacancy 10.5% vs. the low of 5.3% in 2Q07; may reach 15% over next year
■ Leasing velocity picking up – more upcoming expirations, and tenants taking advantage of
the market
17.0%
15.0%
13.0%
11.0%
9.0%
Equilibrium 7-9%
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
1) Total Vacancy is defined as available space that is currently vacant or will be vacant within 6 months.
2) Total Availability is defined as available space that is currently vacant or will be vacant within 12 months.
$70.00
$60.00
$/sf
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Asking rents down 21% in Midtown and 14% in Downtown compared to 3Q08.
$95.00
Average Gap (1995-2008): $5.40
Current Gap: $17.68
$85.00
$75.00 $76.99
$65.00
$/SF
$59.31
$55.00
$45.00
$35.00
$25.00
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Midtown Direct Midtown Sublease
Midtown direct and sublease asking rent spread at $17.68 per square foot,
approximately 23% delta, highest since 1996.
$90.00
$92.30
$92.59
$86.40
$80.00
$80.42
$78.75
$79.13
$70.00
$71.58
$/SF
$63.89
$63.32
$60.00
$46.15
$50.00
$40.00
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
$45
$43
$43.29
$42.48
$41.97
$41
$41.35
$41.12
$40.80
$40.58
$40.53
$40.54
$40.51
$40.39
$40.28
$40.06
$39.94
$39
$39.53
$38.11
$37
$37.79
$37.00
$/SF
$35
$33
$33.71
$33.68
$33.37
$32.57
$32.26
$31
$29
$29.79
$27
$25
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05
In 2003-2005 recovery asking rents remained stagnant while net effective rents
grew significantly as concessions declined. Rent spikes followed.
$90 16%
$85
$86.40
14%
$83.40
$80
$75
12%
$70
$71.40
$71.56
$/SF per Year
$67.90
$65
$66.85
$66.25
10%
$60
Vacancy
$55 8%
$50
$45 6%
$40
4%
$35
$30 2%
$25
$20 0%
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Asking Rents Vacancy Rate
sector
$2,000,000 $1,600
$1,800,000
$1,400
$1,600,000
$1,200
$1,400,000
$1,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000 $800
$800,000
$600
$600,000
$400
$400,000
$200
$200,000
$0 $0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average Unit Price Average Price Per Square Foot
Average unit pricing has dropped 16.0% since the prior quarter
and a total of 22.6% since 1Q08 peak.
$1,600,000 $1,400
$1,400,000 $1,200
$1,200,000
$1,000
$1,000,000
$800
$800,000
$600
$600,000
$400
$400,000
$200,000 $200
$0 $0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average Unit Price Average Price Per Square Foot
Average Co-Op unit pricing has dropped 10.4% since the prior
quarter and a total of 23.3% since 1Q08 peak.
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average Unit Price Average Price Per Square Foot
Luxury unit pricing down 39.0% and sales volume down 27.5% since 1Q09.
Note: Luxury market accounts for top 10% of all Condo and Co-op Sales
Source: Miller Samuel, Inc.
30
30
Manhattan Residential Overview
Yearly Volume of Condominium & Co-Op Sales
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q209
Condos Co-ops
Annualized 2009 sales volume of Manhattan condominium and co-op units down 47% since 2008.
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
*Est. 2009
Estimated 2009 issued permits have dropped by 87% from 2008.
421a program influenced peak issuance in 2008.
Government stake*
$45bn Deutsche Bank
July 10, 2009*** Government stake:
July 10, 2009
None
225.3
JP Morgan Chase
Government stake*
$25bn
75.1 67.8 HSBC
170.9 200.5 Government stake:
None
124.8 38.4 96.0
33.6
Goldman Sachs 72.3 UBS
Government stake* 14.4 Swiss government stake:
82
123.9
$10bn 49.4 $5.3bn
.1
96.3
* US government
investments are in
250.4 preference shares and
BNP Paribas
French government stake: are non-comparable to
$3.9bn ordinary shares
Potential value of
hybrid planned ** Total value of
Citigroup outstanding shares
Government stake*
$52bn
*** Market caps at
6pm GMT July 10, 2009
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Atlantic Equities; companies
34
34
Economic Overview - National
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Debt Markets, $3.5 Trillion
REIT's
Commercial/Savings
Finance Companies
Banks
2.1%
50.3%
All Other
4.4%
Govt. Entities
7.5%
REIT's
0.3%
All Other
5.5%
Life Insurance Cos
0.1%
250
$230
$203
200
$169
150
$Billions
100 $93
$78
$67
$52
$47
50
$12
$0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$4.9
$53.2
$208.5
Office
$3.0
$37.4
$101.3
Apartment
$2.6
$20.6
$67.1
Retail
$0.6
$11.8
1 $89.0
Hotel
$1.9
$21.5
$51.1
Industrial
1 As of 1Q09
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Group
38
38
US Top CBD Office Investment Markets
Sales Volume 2005 – MAY 2009
$1.7
1 $13.1
Manhattan $37.5
$0.3
$2.4
Washington DC $6.0
$0.2
$1.4
Chicago $7.9
$0.2
$1.0
San Francisco $10.2
$0.6
$0.9
Boston $7.0
1 As of June 2009
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Group
39
39
US Top CBD Office Investment Markets
Average Capitalization Rate, 2005 – 1Q2009*
2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09
4.7%
Manhattan 4.5%
6.6%
5.8%
Washington DC 5.0%
8.1%
8.0%
Chicago 5.8%
6.5%
6.1%
San Francisco 4.3%
6.9%
5.8%
Boston 4.9%
2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Weighted Average Cap Rate
* Fall off in investment sales activity make quarterly cap rate changes unreliable due to lack of trades.
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Group
40
40
US Top CBD Office Investment Markets
Average Sales Price PSF, 2005 – 1Q2009
$392 *
$787
Manhattan $703
$570
$564
Washington DC $440
$177
$230
Chicago $244
$396
$390
San Francisco $479
$301
$343
Boston $370
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Group
42
42
US Top CBD Office Markets
Average Asking Rents, 1997 – 1Q 2009
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Group
Manhattan Employment And Office Space Demand:
43
43
Conservative
Employment Forecast: 1990 – 2016 and Implied Space Demand
Office Using
1,250
Thousands
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Cumulative Space Demand
Thousands of Square Feet
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Employment and Office Space Demand: Forecasted return to pre-2008 levels after 2016.
Office Using
1,250
Thousands
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
1,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
15 Cumulative Space Demand
Thousands of Square Feet
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Employment and Office Space Demand: Forecasted return to pre-2008 levels in 2015.
Percent of Jobs
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.8%
4.6%
4.4%
4.2%
4.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
5.0
4.0
3.0 2009 +:
2.0 New Construction (In Process):
1.0 5.5 msf
The Drawing Board:
0.0
30.7 msf
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
NEW CONSTRUCTION (IN PROCESS): POTENTIAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS (cont’d):
2009 World Products Center Extell Development 1,500,000 MT
510 Madison Avenue Macklowe Organization 350,000 MT
8th Avenue & 46th Street Boston Properties/ 1,000,000 MT
11 Times Square SJP Properties 1,100,000 MT Related Companies
450 West 14th Street/HighLine Charles Blaichman 88,300 MTS World Trade Center: Tower 4 Silverstein Properties 1,800,000 DT
Building
20 Times Square/641 Eighth Lawrence Ruben 1,300,000 MT
2010 Avenue Company/ Vornado
Goldman Sachs HQ/200 West Goldman Sachs/ 2,000,000 DT Realty Trust
St./6 WFC Madison Equities World Trade Center: Tower 5 Port Authority of NY & NJ 2,000,000 DT
2013
World Trade Center: Tower 1 Port Authority of NY & NJ 2,000,000 DT 4 Hudson Square Trinity Real Estate 1,310,000 MTS
(Freedom Tower) Brookfield Site: South Tower Brookfield Properties 3,400,000 MT
POTENTIAL FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS: Brookfield Site: North Tower Brookfield Properties 2,300,000 MT
855 Avenue of the Americas Cherit Group 355,279 MT Hotel Pennsylvania Vornado Realty Trust 3,000,000 MT
360 Tenth Avenue Extell Development 140,000 MT One Penn East Vornado Realty Trust 2,000,000 MT
51 Astor Place/Cooper Union Minskoff Properties 325,000 MTS World Trade Center: Tower 3 Silverstein Properties 2,100,000 DT
Tech School World Trade Center: Tower 2 Port Authority of NY & NJ 2,300,000 DT
Extell Diamond Tower/West Extell Development 800,000 MT Madison Square Vornado Realty Trust/ 3,000,000 MT
47th Street Garden/Moynihan Station Related Companies
250 West 55th Street/920 Boston Properties/ 1,000,000 MT 708 First Avenue Sheldon Solow 1,100,000 MT
Eighth Avenue Madison Equities
Midtown
$1.6 Billion – 90%
Midtown South
$176 Million – 10%
Note: No 2009 Downtown transactions have closed. AIG/70 Pine is under contract for $110 Million.
All Other
$520 Milion – 29%
Class A Office
$580 Million – 33%
Retail
$23 Million – 1%
Overall Asking Rents $60.23 -7% $66.82 -9% $49.55 -6% $43.81 -2%
Class A Asking Rents $67.24 -9% $71.58 -10% $53.27 -10% $48.47 -1%
Leasing Activity (SF)* 6,383,685 -45% 4,289,864 -43% 690,908 -56% 1,402,913 -43%
• Leasing activity compares 2Q09 vs. 2Q08 due to the cyclical nature of leasing over a year.
14.0%
12.0%
10.5%
10.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.9%
2.0%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
12.0%
11.5%
10.0%
7.6%
8.0% Equilibrium 7-9%
6.0%
4.0% 3.9%
2.0%
0.0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$80 20%
$ 69. 44
18%
$70 $ 65. 08
$ 60. 23 16%
$60
14%
$ 50. 92 $ 50. 56
$50 $ 46. 69
12%
$ 42. 96
$ 40. 53 $ 39. 55 $ 40. 58
$ 38. 04
$40 $ 35. 31
10%
$ 31. 26
$ 29. 03 $ 28. 79 8%
$30 $ 27. 37 $ 26. 77 $ 26. 90
$ 26. 22 $ 26. 71
6%
$20
4%
$10
2%
$0 0%
2Q09
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Overall Asking Rent al Rates Vacancy Rate
$80.00
$70.00 $71.58
$60.00
$/sf
$53.27
$50.00
$48.47
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Occupancy Costs
Rank
2008 2007
1 1 United Kingdom London West End $311
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research Office Space Across the World 2008
59
59
Manhattan Office Market
New Leasing Activity
40
35
33.4 33.1
30 31.2 31.5
29.5
25 27.1
25.5
Millions SF
23.6
20
20.8 20.1
18.9 19.1
15
2Q08
10
11.5
5 6.4
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Manhattan Total
2,000,000
Square Feet
-2,000,000
-4,000,000
-6,000,000
-8,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Financial Services
33.1%
Other
21.3%
Legal Services
12.3%
Apparel
3.8% Business Services
8.2%
Communications
4.1%
Advertising Gov't/Education/Soc
Printing &
4.3% Svcs
Publishing
7.8% 7.2%
80.0
70.0
60.0
(in million SF)
50.0
58.5 62.9
40.0 53.7
61.0
58.1
51.6 30.1
30.0 35.7
45.4
33.3 29.8
21.6
32.9
20.0 27.3 26.3 23.6
22.2 20.4
18.7
10.0
12.1 16.3
14.3 12.2 12.3 12.9
11.1 9.6 11.4
8.4 6.8 6.8 6.4 8.2
5.4 5.2 5.7 4.1 5.7 3.5
2.7
0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Sublease Direct
80
Period # of Blocks Available SF
75
2Q09: 154 24,641,230
70
4Q08: 126 22,663,000
65
3Q08: 129 23,425,000
60
55 4Q07: 104 16,808,000
50
Number of Blocks
45
40
35 55 73
30 59 59
25 52
51
20 42
15 30
26 25
10 22
19
5
0
4Q07 3Q08 3Q08 2Q09 4Q07 3Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q07 3Q08 4Q08 2Q09
60
50
50
40 44
42
Number of Leases
30 32
30 30
27
25
20 22 21
14 15
10 12
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Midtown
-4.5%
-8.9% -7.9% -8.2% -8.5%
-11.7% -12.4% -11.6%
-14.9% -14.0%
-16.1% -17.4%
-20.4% -20.1%
-25.2%
-32.0% -32.6%
Total Murray Grand East Park Madison Sixth West Times
MT Hill Central Side Avenue / Fifth Rock Ctr. Side Sq. South
0.7% 1.3%
Midtown South
-2.4%
-5.6% -6.9% -6.9% -5.8%
-9.2% -9.0%-10.1%
-12.4% -12.8%
Downtown
-0.3% -1.5%
-1.7% -2.2%
-3.6% -3.7%
-5.9%
-12.2% -11.3%
-13.7% -13.0%
-16.7%
14.0%
12.0%
11.7%
10.0%
6.0%
4.0%
3.4%
2.0%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$90 22%
18%
$70 $66.82
16%
$58.92
$60 $56.56
$52.83 14%
$48.15 $47.41
$50 $45.37$45.98
12%
$43.03
$40.36
$40 10%
$34.19
$30.40 $33.23
$31.56
$28.97 $28.86 $30.56 8%
$30 $28.52
6%
$20
4%
$10
2%
$0 0%
2Q09
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Overall A sking Rental Rates Vacancy Rate
40
Number of Blocks
35 3 2
2
30 6
7 10
25 6
46 4
20
7
15
25
10 22 5 2
2
13
5 5
8
3
0
2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09
6.9%
42.7%
10.8%
15.1%
1-9,999 sf
10,000-24,999 sf
25,000-49,999 sf
50,000-99,999 sf
24.4% 100,000 + sf
200
171 167
180
160
42
47
140
120
100
51
100 43
16
80
27
25
60 39
35
23 23 23
40 1
10
4 52 1
7
20 34
43 7
9 3
3 21
7 12
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF
Deals Deals Deals Deals Deals
1 2,500 2,500 16 633,784 39,612 42 810,939 19,308 47 866,129 18,428 1 8,000 8,000
10 135,132 13,513 27 729,918 27,034 51 1,864,720 36,563 43 1,701,187 39,562 7 56,471 8,067
7 162,104 23,158 23 684,491 29,760 35 1,025,601 29,303 25 442,848 17,714 3 160,419 53,473
21 329,429 15,687 34 1,655,633 48,695 43 2,151,873 50,044 52 1,507,959 28,999 12 272,022 22,669
39 629,165 16,132 100 3,703,826 37,038 171 5,853,133 34,229 167 4,518,123 27,055 23 496,912 21,605
MT Hill Central Side Avenue / Fifth Rock Ctr. Side Sq. South
2nd QTR 2009 $66.82 $50.42 $60.74 $62.61 $75.88 $96.87 $71.05 $65.25 $46.40
1st QTR 2009 $73.31 $51.47 $65.96 $74.64 $89.18 $105.58 $80.33 $71.30 $48.57
2nd QTR 2008 $83.96 $57.08 $69.30 $83.65 $111.65 $117.34 $105.39 $81.71 $53.98
$ Change
($6.49) ($1.05) ($5.22) ($12.03) ($13.30) ($8.71) ($9.28) ($6.05) ($2.17)
over Prior QTR
$ Change
($17.14) ($6.66) ($8.56) ($21.04) ($35.77) ($20.47) ($34.34) ($16.46) ($7.58)
Year-over-Year
-2.0%
-4.5%
-8.9% -7.9% -8.2% -8.5%
-11.7% -12.4% -11.6%
-14.9% -14.0%
-16.1% -17.4%
-20.4% -20.1%
-25.2%
-32.0% -32.6%
Total Murray Grand East Park Madison Sixth West Times
MT Hill Central Side Avenue / Fifth Rock Ctr. Side Sq. South
Total Leased
1,600
SF in Thousands
1,400
1,200 1,148.0
1,012.2
1,000 948.9
866.0
600 512.8
477.0 509.0
425.0 437.2
400 357.0
211.0
178.0
200
0
Murray Hill Grand Central East Side Park Avenue Madison/Fifth Sixth/Rock Ctr. Westside Times Sq.
South
2Q08 2Q09
Midtown Total
2,500,000
2Q09: (6,029,623)
2Q08: (537,141)
2,000,000 1,912,590
1,500,000
1,000,000
Square Footage
500,000
86,575
0
(38,624)
(209,132) (210,437)
(241,511)
-500,000 (409,409)
(411,570) (476,811)
(540,305) (600,653)
(704,941)(767,399)(696,641)
-1,000,000
(1,274,881)
-1,500,000
(1,627,208)
-2,000,000
Grand Central East Side Park Avenue Madison/ Fifth 6 Ave/ Rock Westside Penn Station Times Sq South
Cntr
2Q08 2Q09
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.5 1.4 1.4
1.4 1.4
1.3 1.3
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
1.2 1.2
1.3 1.2
1.1 1.1
MSF Leased
1.0
1.0 0.9
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.6
0.5 0.5
0.5 0.4
0.3
0.0
July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.7%
8.0% Equilibrium 7-9%
6.7%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0% 2.0%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$60 22%
$54.09
20%
$49.55
$50 $46.89 18%
$45.65
$40.55 16%
$38.74
$40
$33.23 14%
$33.63
$31.34
$29.37 $30.37 12%
$30
$25.73
10%
$20.23 $19.54
$19.10 8%
$20 $17.40 $17.08 $16.99
$16.65 $14.73
6%
$10 4%
2%
$0 0%
2Q09
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Overall Asking Rent al Rat es Vacancy Rat e
10
Period # of Blocks Available SF
1 2Q08: 19 2,810,397
2Q09: 20 3,459,353
1
Number of Blocks
2
9
5
1
7
7 1
1 1
4
1
2
1
0
2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09
52.09%
0.00%
7.98%
1-9,999 sf
10,000-24,999 sf
25,000-49,999 sf
50,000-99,999 sf
39.93% 100,000 + sf
$ Change
($2.93) ($3.73) $0.36 ($3.30) ($1.16) ($4.55)
over Prior QTR
$ Change
($3.67) ($7.13) ($5.67) ($7.88) $0.59 ($5.16)
Year-over-Year
0.7% 1.3%
-2.4%
-5.6%-6.9% -5.8%
-6.9%
-9.0%-10.1%
-12.4% -12.8%
Total Leased
2Q09: 690.9
2Q08: 1,567.7
400
SF in Thousands
285.2
237.5
200
154.3 162.1
132.4
109.7
27.2
10.0
0
SoHo Greenwich/NoHo Madison/Union Sq. Hudson Sq./W. Village Chelsea
2Q08 2Q09
2Q08: (307,421)
129,391
0
Square Footage
(37,304)
-100,000
(114,856)
-200,000
(204,101)
(260,131)
-300,000
(349,602)
(367,638)
-400,000
SoHo Greenwich/Noho Madison/Union Hudson Sq./W. Chelsea
Square Village
2Q08 2Q09
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.7%
8.0% Equilibrium 7-9%
6.0% 6.4%
4.0%
2.0% 2.3%
0.0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$60 22%
20%
$50 $47.47 $47.86 18%
$43.41 $43.81
16%
$39.45 $39.17
$38.62
$40 $36.92
14%
$34.40
$31.13 $31.55 $30.89 12%
$29.45
$30 $28.01 $28.00
$26.45 $25.97
$24.80 $25.27 $25.81 10%
8%
$20
6%
$10 4%
2%
$0 0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2Q09
Overall Asking Rental Rat es Vacancy Rat e
20
Period # of Blocks Available SF
2Q09: 33 6,944,360
5
2Q08: 41 9,173,647
15
Number of Blocks
3
2
1 1 1
10
14 2 4
1
10
5 10
3
8
6
1
2
0
2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09 2Q08 2Q09
1-9,999 sf 35.44%
10,000-24,999 sf
25,000-49,999 sf
50,000-99,999 sf
100,000 + sf
16.77%
22.59%
5.12%
20.08%
60
60
6
50 7
44
40
17
30
5 47
20
12
9
10 2 22
3 2
1
2 10
6
0
0 0 1
Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF Total SF Avg. SF
Deals Deals Deals Deals Deals
2 135,789 67,895 2 219,734 109,867 5 217,087 43,417 7 96,373 13,768 1 22,000 22,000
1 35,023 35,023 12 499,247 41,604 22 810,756 36,853 47 629,934 13,403 6 59,430 9,905
3 170,812 56,937 14 718,981 51,356 44 1,913,609 43,491 60 999,414 16,657 9 280,041 31,116
$ Change
($0.77) ($0.14) ($0.79) ($1.49) ($0.96) ($1.49)
over Prior QTR
$ Change
($6.93) ($6.50) ($10.21) ($2.50) ($5.82) ($4.91)
Year-over-Year
-0.3% -1.5%
-1.7% -2.2%
-3.6% -3.7%
-5.9%
-12.2% -11.3%
-13.7% -13.0%
-16.7%
Total Leased
1,000 992.6
2Q09: 1,402.9 939.5
2Q08: 2,476.7
800
SF in Thousands
646.8
600
470.5
400
343.1
200 179.4
93.5 110.3
81.8
22.2
0
City Hall World Financial Financial West Financial East Insurance
2Q08 2Q09
M itchell-Lama
1.10%
8,417 Units
Stabilized
51.66%
299,469 Units
P ublic-Ho using
10.53%
61,017 Units
Rental
76.02% M itchell-Lama
579,657 Units 2.52%
14,605 Units
Rental/Owned ratio inverse of US. Free market 32% of rental inventory; 52% stabilized.
5% 3.9%
3.5%
4%
2.6%
3% 1.9%
1.1% 1.4%
2% 0.9%
0.6%
1%
0%
1996 1999 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
$6,000
$5,148
$5,000
$4,000 $3,610
$3,320
$3,000 $2,617
$2,347
$1,996
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Studio One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom
Doorman Non-Doorman
$0
Studio One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom
June-08 June-09
$3,786
$4,000 $3,320
$2,642
$2,347
$2,000
$0
Studio One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom
M arch-08 M arch-09
Source: The Real Estate Group New York
97
97
Manhattan Residential Overview
Yearly Volume of Luxury Condominium and Co-Op Sales
(1998 – 2Q09)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2Q09
Annualized 2009 sales volume of luxury units down 47% since 2008.
Note: Luxury market accounts for top 10% of all Condo and Co-Op Sales
Source: Miller Samuel, Inc.
98
98
Manhattan Residential Overview
Residential Unit Permits Issued by Borough
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
*Est. 2009
Manhattan Total Units Brooklyn Total Units Queens Total Units Bronx Total Units Staten Island Total Units
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if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to
errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. ©2009 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights
reserved.