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PERAMALANData historis bulanan unutk 3 tahun sbb
Bulan
2004 2005 2006 SA
∇
MA
∇
I i 2006 Ŷ (SAASI)
∇
Ii 2004 Ii 2005
Januari 
241 250 253 245.5 56.25 250.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 1.16 0.996 0.998
Februari 
231 252 236 241.5 30.25 252.5 272.25 0.990 250.38 247.82 139.66 0.953 1.012
Maret 
238 248 245 243 4 244.5 0.25 0.996 250.38 249.36 18.98 1.008 0.988
 April 
246 241 250 243.5 42.25 240.5 90.25 0.998 250.38 249.87 0.02 1.049 0.964
Mei 
242 247 260 244.5 240.25 247.5 156.25 1.002 250.38 250.90 82.88 1.000 1.010
Juni 
248 244 253 246 49 255 4 1.008 250.38 252.44 0.32 1.016 1.000
Juli 
237 244 249 240.5 72.25 256.5 56.25 0.986 250.38 246.79 4.88 0.967 0.994
 Agustus
236 249 242 242.5 0.25 251 81 0.994 250.38 248.84 46.84 0.973 1.020
September 
240 251 248 245.5 6.25 245.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 15.39 1.015 1.018
Oktober 
231 238 244 234.5 90.25 245 1 0.961 250.38 240.63 11.32 0.971 0.952
November 
253 249 247 251 16 246 1 1.029 250.38 257.57 111.65 1.074 1.018
Desember 
248 252 257 250 49 245.5 132.25 1.025 250.38 256.54 0.21 1.025 1.035
Jumlah
2891 2965 2984 656 807 433.31MSESA = 656/12 =
54.67
MSE (saasi) = 433.31MA = 807/12 =
67.25
12MSE (saasi) =
36.11
Persamaan ramalan tren linier (least squares)Tahun Y X X^2 X.Y2002 2750 -2 4 -55002003 2800 -1 1 -28002004 2891 0 0 02005 2965 1 1 29652006 2984 2 4 5968Jumlah 14390 10 633a = 14390 b = 633 Y = a + bx5 10a = 2878 b = 63.3y perbula 250.38
Ŷ
(2006)/bln
Ŷ
(2006) = 2878 + 63,3 (2) = 3004,6
of 00

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