T GI HI OI

ThS. Nguyn Thu Trang

Ging vin Khoa Ti Chnh Ngn hng
trannhatxu@gmail.com

Chng II: T gi hi oi
2.1. Nhng ni dung c bn v t gi
2.2. Cc l thuyt v hnh thnh t gi
2.3. Cc hc thuyt v t gi
2.4. Cc yu t tc ng n t gi

Nhng ni dung c bn v t gi
Khi nim t gi

Phng php yt t gi
Cch vit t gi
T gi cho
Phn loi t gi

Khi nim
T gi hi oi (foreign exchange rate/exchange rate) l

gi c ca mt ng tin ny tnh bng ng tin khc

hoc s lng mt ng tin c th em ra trao i ly 1
n v ng tin khc.
V d: Bao nhiu vnd c th i c 1 dollar?

20.920 Vnd

=> ngha t gi hi oi?

T gi hi oi cho php nh gi ca hng ha/dch v trong

mt ng tin chung.
nh gi sc mnh ca nn kinh t sn xut ra loi tin o.

T gi hi oi tc ng trc tip n gi tr hng ha khi xut

nhp khu.

Mt gi v ln gi
Di ch t gi th ni, cung cu ng tin trn th

trng to ra nhng thay i trong gi tr ca ng tin,

gi l mt gi hoc ln gi.
ng tin mt gi (depreciation of currency X/exchange

rate depreciation): l s gim v mt gi tr ca mt ng

tin so vi mt ng tin khc.

Mt gi (depreciation)
VND ==== USD

1VND -----> 0.0000478USD

1VND -----> 0.0000476USD

1USD -----> 20.920VND

1USD -----> 21.000VND

VND => VND tng tinh cnh tranh trn thi trng
Gia hang hoa VN re hn (i vi ngi nhp khu My)
Xut khu ca VN

=> Nguyn nhn dn n mt gia?

Ln gi (appreciation)
ng tin ln gi (appreciation of currency X/exchange

rate appreciation): l s tng v mt gi tr ca mt ng

tin so vi mt ng tin khc.

VND === USD

1VND ---> 0.0000478USD
1VND ---> 0.0000488USD

1USD ---> 20.920VND

1USD --->20.500VND

VND (USD) => VND gim tinh cnh tranh trn thi trng
Gia hang hoa VN t hn ( i vi ngi nhp khu My)
XK; NK (Vit Nam)

Nng gi v ph gi
Di ch t gi c nh, nng gi hoc ph gi l

nhng thay i gi tr chnh thc v mt gi tr ca ng

tin mt nc so vi nc khc.
c thc hin bi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch di

p lc th trng.

Ph gi (devaluation)
Ph gi: cp n s thay i (realignment) trong ch

t gi c nh bng cch lm ng tin gim gi tr.

V d: Chinh sch pha gia ng Nhn dn t ca Trung
Quc
Vic ph gi ng Peso ca Argentina ( la ha)
=> nh hng n xut nhp khu nh th no?
(tc ng ca pha gia va nng gia ng tin ln hot ng
xut nhp khu ging nh mt gia va ln gia)
Tai sao chinh phu lai pha gia ni t?
- Pha gia chu ng
- Pha gia b ng

 Anh hng cua vic pha gia ng tin:

- Tng trng kinh t chm.

- Anh hng tm ly
- Nhng t pha gia lin tip
=> Vai tro cua IMF?

Nng gi (revaluation)
Nng gi: cp n s thay i (realignment) trong ch t

gi c nh bng cch lm ng tin tng gi tr.

V d: Trung Quc tin hnh nng gi ng nhn dn t
v chuyn sang ch t gi th ni c qun l.
Ti sao chnh phu li nng gi tin t?
- H nhit nn kinh t qu nng, p lc t cc nc c cn
cn thng mi thm ht
- Trnh tip nhn nhng ng ngoi t b mt gi chy vo nc
mnh
- Xy dng s nh hng ra bn ngoi (u t, XK vn ra
bn ngoi).

nh gi thp/cao gi tr
Mt ng tin b nh gi cao (overvalued) khi gi tr ng tin

trn th trng cao hn gi tr d on trong l thuyt hay

cc m hnh kinh t
nh hng n xut nhp khu ?
=> gim xut khu, tng nhp khu

 Mt ng tin b nh gi thp (undervalued) khi gi tr

ng tin o trn th trng thp hn gi tr d on trong

l thuyt hay cc m hnh kinh t
Phng php xc nh ng tin b nh gia cao/ thp:
PPP (ngang gia sc mua)
Thc t: ng euro, yn, bng Anh c nh gia cao
hn t 2% - 10%.
ng nhn dn t t lu a c nh gia thp
(do chinh sch khuyn khich xut khu ca Trung Quc)

nh gia cao va nh gia thp

E.P*

E($/Vnd))

PPP

Eun

Vung
nh gia
thp

Under
Em
Over

Eov

Vung nh
gia cao

D
0

Q($)

Overvalued exchange rates in the Euro

Phng php yt t gi
Yt gi ngoai t (foreign exchange quotation/quote) l

mt tuyn b sn sng mua hoc bn ti 1 t l nht nh:

- Yt gi ti Ngn hng (Interbank quotation)
- Yt gi trc tip v gin tip (direct and indirect quotes
hoc price and volume quotation)
- Yt gi mua vo v bn ra (bid and ask quotations)

Yt gi ti ngn hng
M NT

Tn ngoi t

Mua tin mt

Mua chuyn khon

Bn

AUD

AUST.DOLLAR

21,420.02

21,549.32

21,851.17

CAD

CANADIAN DOLLAR

20,070.19

20,252.46

20,536.15

CHF

SWISS FRANCE

21,805.35

21,959.06

22,266.65

DKK

DANISH KRONE

3,584.26

3,649.04

EUR

EURO

26,684.29

26,764.58

27,139.48

GBP

BRITISH POUND

31,219.50

31,439.58

31,816.27

HKD

HONGKONG DOLLAR

2,655.28

2,674.00

2,722.32

INR

INDIAN RUPEE

376.74

392.87

JPY

JAPANESE YEN

216.87

219.06

222.13

KRW

SOUTH KOREAN WON

17.04

20.86

KWD

KUWAITI DINAR

72,753.32

74,365.01

MYR

MALAYSIAN RINGGIT

6,651.28

6,744.45

NOK

NORWEGIAN KRONER

3,554.07

3,618.29

RUB

RUSSIAN RUBLE

613.49

751.25

SEK

SWEDISH KRONA

3,208.86

3,266.85

SGD

SINGAPORE DOLLAR

16,464.56

16,580.62

16,880.27

THB

THAI BAHT

700.71

700.71

730.71

USD

US DOLLAR

20,920.00

20,920.00

20,960.00

Yt gi trc tip v gin tip (direct or

indirect quotations)
Yt gia trc tip (Gia ni t cua 1
n b ngoai t)

Yt gia gian tip (gia ngoai t cua

mt n v ni t)

VND20.920/USD

USD0,0000478/VND

AUD0.9273/USD

USD1,0784/VND

0,7717/$

$1,2950/

Hinh thc yt gia la trc tip hay gin tip phu

thuc vao u la nc yt gia (home country)

Yt gia trc tip va gin tip

Xet t goc Vit Nam (home country)

Yt gia trc tip

VND 20.920/$

ng tin nh gia
(Commodity currency C)
Ngoi t la hang hoa ($)
Ni t la tin t (VND)

Yt gia gin tip

$ 0,0000478/VND

ng tin yt gia
(Term/Base Currency T)
Ni t la hang hoa (VND)
Ngoi t la tin t (USD)

Yt ty gia mua va ty gia bn

Yt ty gia mua (bid) la ty gia ma ti o ngn hang se mua

ngoi hi.
Yt ty gia bn (ask/offer) la ty gia ma ti o ngn hang se
bn ngoi hi.
Ngn hang yt gia (quoting bank) la ngn hang thc
hin nim yt ty gia mua vao bn ra.
Ngn hang hoi gia (asking bank) la ngn hang lin h
vi ngn hang yt gia hoi gia.

 Phn bit Ngn hang yt gia va Ngn hang hoi gia?

Mt ngn hang yt gia ng thi va (mua + bn) 1 triu
USD ti ty gia thi trng VND/USD = 20.920 20.960.
Tinh kt qu kinh doanh ca Ngn hang nay?
Mt Ngn hang hoi gia ng thi va (mua + bn) 1 triu
USD ti ty gia thi trng VND/USD = 20.920 20.960.
Tinh kt qu kinh doanh ca Ngn hang nay?

 i vi Ngn hang yt gia:

Mua 1 triu USD cn: 20.920 x 1tr USD = 20,920 ty VND.

Bn 1 triu USD thu c: 1tr USD x 20.960 = 20,960 ty
VND
Ngn hang lai: 20,960 ty 20,920 ty = 40 tr VND
i vi Ngn hang hoi gia
Mua 1 triu USD cn: 20.960 x 1tr USD = 20,960 T VND
Bn 1 triu USD thu c: 1tr USD x 20.920 = 20,920 T
VND
Ngn hang l: 20,920 ty 20,960 ty = - 40 tr VND

Chnh lch ty gia (bid ask spread)

Bid-ask spread = Ask Bid

Y ngha: s khc bit v mc gia cao nht ma ngi

mua sn sang tra va mc gia thp nht ma ngi bn

sn sang bn.
Chnh lch ty gia trn thi trng ngoi hi la nho nht.
Pip (price interest point): la phn giao ng nho nht ca
gia ca mt ng tin (1/100)
Midpoint price = (ask + bid)/2
Bid-ask spread (%) = (Ask bid)/bid

 Bai tp: $/ = 1,2011 1,2014

Yu cu:

- Tinh spread (pip) ?

- Tinh midpoint price?
- Tinh Bid-ask spread (%)?

Cch vit ty gia

Nu xet quan h gia VND va USD:
y u:
1USD = 20.920 VND
Gn hn: VND 20.920/$
VND/USD = 20.920
VND/USD = 20.920 20.960
VND/USD = 20.920/960
Chuyn nghip: VND = 20.920
VND = 20.920/960
VND = 920/960
Trn thi trng ngoi hi: 1USD = 20.920 VND
VND/USD = 20.920
VND/USD = 20.920/960
VND = 20.920

T gia cheo
T gia cheo gia 2 ng tin la ty gia c xc nh

thng qua mi quan h vi ng tin c trao i rng

rai th ba.
Cng thc chung (khng co chi phi giao dch)
S(i/j): gia tr 1 n v ng tin j tinh bng ng tin i.
S(i/j) = S(i/$)/S(j/$)
= S($/j)/S($/i)
= S(i/$)xS($/j)
= (1/S($/i))/(1/S(j/$))

 Bai tp: Nha nhp khu Singapore cn Yn Nht thanh

ton cho l hang nhp khu t Tokyo. T gia c yt

nh sau: 98,5/$ ; SGD1,48/$
Tinh /SGD?
/SGD = (/$)/(SGD/$) = 98,5/1,48 = 66,5541
=> 66,5541/SGD

Cch tinh ty gia cheo phc hp

Tinh ty gia cheo trong trng hp co chi phi giao dch (co

chnh lch gia gia mua va gia bn).

T gia S(i/j)ask la s lng i phi tra cho ngn hang khi
mua 1j. y cung chinh la ty gia chao bn (offer/ask rate)
ca ngn hang i vi ng tin j.
T gia S(i/j)bid la s lng i nhn c t ngn hang khi
bn 1j. y chinh la ty gia chao mua (bid rate) ca ngn
hang i vi ng tin j.

Quy tc
S(i/j)ask = 1/S(j/i)bid

S(i/j)bid = 1/S(j/i)ask

T gia cheo (co chi phi giao dch)

$/ = 0.0104 0.0108

$/Pound = 1.5670 1.5675

(/Pound) = ( ) x(

$
)

= ($ ) x (
)

= 145.0926


(
)

1
$
=(
)
$

= 150.7211

= . .

Cc loi ty gia
T gia mua vao bn ra

T gia giao ngay ty gia ky hn

T gia ong ca ty gia m ca
T gia tin mt ty gia chuyn khon
T gia chinh thc ty gia ch en
T gia danh ngha ty gia thc
T gia song phng ty gia a phng

Sc cnh tranh thng mi quc t

Trang thai tinh (tai mt thi im):

- XK nhiu hn nc khac => quc gia co vi th canh tranh

thng mai quc t (CTTMQT) cao hn.
- XK it hn nc khac => quc gia co vi th CTTMQT thp hn.
Trang thai ng (t thi im nay sang thi im khac):

- XK tng nhanh hn NK => CTTMQT cai thin

- XK giam manh hn NK => CTTMQT xoi mon
(Chi cp n khi lng xut nhp khu, khng lin quan n
gia tri xut nhp khu)

T gia danh ngha

T gia danh ngha NER (nominal exchange rate) la ty l

trao i gia 2 ng tin cha cp n tng quan

sc mua hang hoa va dch v gia chung.
Thay i ty gia danh ngha
1
% =
1
Nu: %C>0 => C ln gia
%C<0 => C gim gia
Nu chi cn c vao s thay i ty gia danh ngha thi cha
th bit c hng tc ng ca ty gia ln TMQT.

T gia Thc
Ty gia thc RER (real exchange rate) la mi quan h gia gia ca

nc ngoai va gia ca trong nc. Qua o gia ca nc ngoai

(tinh bng USD) se c chuyn i thanh gia ca tinh bng tin
t trong nc (tinh bng VND) thng qua ty gia danh nghia.
[ ] =

()

()

[ ] =

()
()

 Trng thi tnh:

- RER = 1 => 2 ng tin ngang gia sc mua (PPP)

- RER > 1 => VND: nh gia thc thp (real undervalued)
=> nng cao v th CTTMQT
- RER > 1 => VND: nh gia thc cao (real undervalued)
=> h thp v th CTTMQT

 Trng thi ng:

0 = 0 .
0 . 100%

- RER => 0 >1 => 0 . 0 > 0 => sc mua

i ngoi ca VND gim tng i so vi USD => VND
gim gia thc (real depreciation) => tng sc CTTMQT
- RER => VND ln gia thc (real appreciation) => xoi
mon sc CTTMQT

T s danh ngha a phng

T gi a phng hay t gi hiu qu binh qun (effective

exchange rate) phn nh mi qun h binh qun gia t

gi song phng ca 1 ng tin vi 1 ng tin khc.
T gi danh ngha a phng NEER (nominal effective
exchange rate) o lng gi tr i ngoi (sc mua i
ngoi) ca mt ng tin vi mt ng tin khc ca cc
nc i tc.
T s danh ngha a phng v bn cht khng phi la ty
gia ma chi la chi s.

T gi thc a phng
T gi thc a phng REER (real effective exchange

rate) bng t gi danh ngha a phng a c iu

chinh bi t l lm pht, do o no phn nh tng quan
sc mua i ngoi ca ng ni t so vi cc ng tin
con li.