For several years I have been asked by clients to draw some of my thoughts together and publish a book. I have been reluctant – (some people might say lazy) – to do so, however with the credit crunchcausing business volumes to decline, the time was suddenly made available. It also seemed the righttime to tell this particular story. The credit crunch and the panic that it caused have offered the perfectopportunity to try and get both the public and business leaders worldwide to wake up and force politicians to take some very hard decisions and justify themselves.The exercise has been hard work. Putting my thoughts down on paper is relatively easy, but thenmaking them legible to the outside world has perhaps been more difficult. I hope I have achieved that,and would like to thank my colleague Henry Faire who has applied as much red-ink to my spelling andgrammar as my English teachers used to 30 years earlier.I work at a large investment bank on the broking side. I have been in the business since 1985 where myrole has been to develop macro sales. The way I have interpreted that role is to look at, and try and`understand and question what’s going on politically, economically and at sector level worldwide. Mostanalysts look at single companies, or look at economic data and express opinions on that. By looking atsuch a narrow set of information, they often miss the real story which I believe is the case now. Whyhas Japan for example stagnated for the last 20 years? They end up trading on noise and putting thesystem under greater and greater stress. Politicians reinforce and compound errors rather than enablingcorrect decisions to be made.My clients have both rewarded me well, and more importantly acted as a great sounding board for ideas. They have pushed me to dig deeper and look wider to understand the real issues. There arevarious people I would like to thank who constantly ask questions and inspire different ways anddifferent directions to think, but I’m not sure they would want me to mention them by name. Othershave also offered their in-depth knowledge of the energy market, giving me access to a level of understanding that publicly available research alone cannot give.I would also like to thank British Rail and its modern equivalent for making a 30 mile journey takealmost an hour, giving me ample time to read literally hundreds of books that have given meinspiration and helped me do my job. It was either that or join the competition in the buffet car, which Imust admit did have a certain draw.Finally I want to acknowledge the various web sites that I use where individuals can express their thoughts and research, which perhaps the broader media and distribution channels only treat asminority sport. In particular I would like to thank the organisers and contributors to the web sitewww.theoildrum.comandwww.energybulletin.comwhich carry a lot of well presented research and
information, which most industry analysts either don’t know or simply gloss over.The reason I have decided not published this through a conventional publisher is several fold. Firstlythe time taken to come to market is prohibitive, and I think making this freely available on the web willhopefully get access to more people. Secondly I see it as more of an investment to bring in more clientsrather than a revenue generator per se.