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3rd round of polls shows many more GOP incumbents trailing generic Democrats

3rd round of polls shows many more GOP incumbents trailing generic Democrats

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Published by MoveOn_org
This memo describes the results of the third round of surveys of GOP-held congressional districts that Public Policy Polling (PPP) has conducted since the start of the October 2013 government shutdown. The survey results indicate that enough incumbent Republicans trail generic Democratic challengers to indicate that if Republicans remain as unpopular as they are now, Democrats could win a significant House majority in the November 2014 elections. The 25 additional surveys described in this memo were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action.
This memo describes the results of the third round of surveys of GOP-held congressional districts that Public Policy Polling (PPP) has conducted since the start of the October 2013 government shutdown. The survey results indicate that enough incumbent Republicans trail generic Democratic challengers to indicate that if Republicans remain as unpopular as they are now, Democrats could win a significant House majority in the November 2014 elections. The 25 additional surveys described in this memo were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action.

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Published by: MoveOn_org on Oct 20, 2013
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10/25/2013

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Public Policy Polling2912 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
MEMORANDUM
October 21, 2013TO: Interested PartiesFROM: Jim Williams, Public Policy PollingRE:
25 Additional Polls: Post-Shutdown Wave Could Result in SizableHouse Democratic Majority
A new round of post-shutdown pollingshowsthat Democrats not only have anopportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could wina sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014.Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in an additional 25 GOP-held Housedistricts, which means we have now surveyed a total of 61 such districts since the beginning of the government shutdown. The surveys were commissioned and paid for byMoveOn.org Political Action.Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, giventhat
the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts thatwere not even supposed to be close.
Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means
generic Democrats lead in37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown
. Democratsonly need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House.And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t stop there, because in the minority of the 61districts where Republicans lead in theinitialhead-to-head question, 11 moreRepublicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported thegovernment shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate
Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districtssurveyed.
Of course, important caveats apply. The 2014 elections are more than a year away, andthese surveys were conducted in the midst of a high-profile shutdown debate. Moreover,generic Democratic candidates are not the same as actual candidates. Democrats mustrecruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are tocapitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys, and they must maintain asignificant national advantage over Republicans. But what these surveys make clear is
 
Public Policy Polling2912 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
that the shutdown has produced a plethora of pickup opportunities for Democrats -- andthat if they play their cards right, they can not only take back the House but can establisha significant majority.Our surveys are in line with what other national surveys in the wake of the shutdownhave shown.On average, the 61 districts we polled were lost by 2 points by PresidentObama in 2013, and on average, our surveys show generic Democrat leading in thesedistricts by 1 point -- essentially a 3 point shift in Democrats’ favor since 2012. PresidentObama won the presidency with by a 4 point margin across the country last year, so onecan extrapolate a 7 point national House ballot lead from these polls. Such a lead isconsistent with what Pew and NBC/WSJ generic ballot questions in the last weeks havefound. Of course some districts have swung more than others, which could be due tolocal dynamics as well as statistical noise, so there are some “surprise” districts whereDemocrats are especially strong or Republicans are doing better than you might expect -- but on the whole what these polls show is very much in line with the national pictureindicated by other organizations’ surveys.The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior toany information being provided about the shutdown are:CA-39, CA-49, CO-03, FL-07, FL-15, FL-25, IL-06, MI-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, OH-15,OH-16, PA-16, VA-05, WI-06The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads or ties after votersare told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are:MI-04, NJ-07, NY-22, OH-10, VA-04, WI-08The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are:IL-16, OH-01, PA-15, VA-01These 25 snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday,Thursday, and Friday of last week with sample sizes ranging from 600-1,000 votersClick hereto view a table with results from this most recent round of 25 polls.Click hereto view a table with results from the second round of 12 polls, andhere for anOctober 11 memowith information about those polls.

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