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October 21, 2013TO: Interested PartiesFROM: Jim Williams, Public Policy PollingRE:
25 Additional Polls: Post-Shutdown Wave Could Result in SizableHouse Democratic Majority
A new round of post-shutdown pollingshowsthat Democrats not only have anopportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could wina sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014.Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in an additional 25 GOP-held Housedistricts, which means we have now surveyed a total of 61 such districts since the beginning of the government shutdown. The surveys were commissioned and paid for byMoveOn.org Political Action.Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, giventhat
the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts thatwere not even supposed to be close.
Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means
generic Democrats lead in37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown
. Democratsonly need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House.And the bad news for Republicans doesn’t stop there, because in the minority of the 61districts where Republicans lead in theinitialhead-to-head question, 11 moreRepublicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported thegovernment shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate
Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districtssurveyed.
Of course, important caveats apply. The 2014 elections are more than a year away, andthese surveys were conducted in the midst of a high-profile shutdown debate. Moreover,generic Democratic candidates are not the same as actual candidates. Democrats mustrecruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are tocapitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys, and they must maintain asignificant national advantage over Republicans. But what these surveys make clear is