Description

1. The Caucasus: a region in conflict 1
Historical and geographical settings and ethnolinguistic
divisions
3
The museum of peoples 4
The crossroads of religion 5
The Caucasus: a security complex? 6
2. The legacy of history: underlying factors in the
Caucasian conflicts
11
The Russian conquest of the Caucasus: the North Caucasus 11
The Chechen-Dagestani rebellions: 1783–1859 12
The Circassian resistance 13
The Soviet era: the last ghazawat and the deportations 14
The Russian conquest of the Caucasus: the South Caucasus 16
The Russian move into the Islamic empires 16
The Georgian and Armenian allies 19
The Armenians: a dispersed nation 20
The Azeris: a divided nation 21
The Soviet legacy: Leninist nationality policy and the
structure of the Soviet Union
24
The Soviet structure 26
The devaluation of autonomy: a cause of conflict and an
impediment to resolution
26
The legacy of Soviet-style ‘federalism’ 27
The refusal of autonomy as a solution 29
A solution to this dilemma: international control and guarantees? 32
The fall of the Soviet Union and conflicting identities 32
Soviet identity and local identity 33
The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the quest for identity 35
Identity and conflict 36
A structural instability? 37
The nature and roots of the Caucasian conflicts 39
The politicization of ethnicity—not of religion 41
Religious rallying or Realpolitik? 42
Conclusions 44
3. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-
Karabakh
47
Early history and conflicting claims 48
The Soviet era and the suppression of the conflict: 1921–87 59
Perestroika and the re-emergence of the conflict: 1987–91 64
February 1988: the explosion 65
Sumgait: the escalation becomes irrevocable 67
The spiral of violence and the militarization of the conflict 71
The mirroring nationalisms 79
Full-scale war: 1992–94 81
The shock of Khojaly 81
The Armenian upper hand 83
Azerbaijan’s disastrous internal distractions 86
The tide of the war 89
The hard road to stability in Azerbaijan 94
The de facto integration of Karabakh into Armenia 95
The search for solutions 95
The role of the CSCE/OSCE 96
The Russian challenge to the CSCE mediation and its
consequences
99
1997–98: a semblance of progress—but a backlash? 102
Direct negotiations: a new stage? 107
The position of the parties and obstacles to a solution 108
Models of solutions 112
A return to the status quo ante 112
A re-negotiated autonomy 115
A territorial swap? 119
Joint sovereignty 121
Other suggestions and models 122
Pillars of a solution 124
Conclusions 125
4. Georgia: from unitary dreams to an asymmetric
federation?
129
The historical background 131
The Georgian national revival 138
The re-emergence of Abkhazian separatism 143
Perestroika and the road to independence 146
The escalation of tension with the minorities 151
Abkhazia: the beginnings, 1989–91 151
The escalation to war in South Ossetia 153
The fall of Gamsakhurdia and the loss of South Ossetia 156
The war in Abkhazia: 1992–93 158
Post-war developments in Abkhazia 162
Potential disturbances in Georgia 163
The question of Ajaria 163
The Javakheti dilemma 166
The Meskhetians or Ahiska 170
The ‘Zviadists’ in Mingrelia 172
Peacekeeping 173
The search for solutions 95
Abkhazia: from bad to worse? 176
South Ossetia: a solution on the horizon? 181
Conclusions 183
5. Russia’s war with Chechnya 185
Prelude: deportation and return 186
The genocidal deportation of 1944 186
Reasons for the deportation 188
The return and rebuilding of the nation 189
The revolution 194
1991–94: de facto independence and Russian subversion 199
The failure of negotiations 207
The tragedy 210
Reasons for the war 210
Disastrous military intervention and steamroller tactics 213
Budennovsk: a narrow escape from defeat 215
The Chechen comeback and victory 217
Why did the Russian army fail to invade Chechnya? 218
Consequences of the war for Russia 220
International rea