UNDPClimateChangeCountryProfiles

Vietnam
C.McSweeney1,M.New1,2andG.Lizcano1
1.SchoolofGeographyandEnvironment,UniversityofOxford.
2.TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch

http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

GeneralClimate
Vietnamstraddlesawiderangeoflatitudes(8to23northoftheequator)andtherefore
experiencesarangeofclimates.TheSouthernpartsofthecountrysitclosetotheequator,
experiencingatropicalclimatewhilsttheNorthernregionsofVietnamreachintothehumid
subtropics,wherethereisgreaterseasonalvariation.ThemajorityofrainfallinVietnamiscaused
bymonsooncirculationswhichbringheavyrainsinMaythroughtoOctoberintheNorthandSouth,
andfromSeptembertoJanuaryinthecentralregions.Meanmonthlyrainfallinthewetseasonis
200400mm.ThelongcoastlineofVietnamisalsovulnerabletopacifictropicalcyclonesbetween
JuneandNovember,whichcontributesignificantlytowetseasonrainfalltotals.
Thenorthernregionsexperiencemoredistinctseasonalvariationsinaveragetemperaturethanthe
south.Inthenorthernprovinces,averagetemperaturesdropto1520Cinwinterfromsummer
temperaturesof22.5to27.5C,whilstinthesouthtemperaturedropto2627Cfrom2829C.
InterannualvariationsinclimatearecausedbytheElNioSouthernOscillation.ElNioepisodes
influencethebehaviourofthemonsoonsinthisregion,andgenerallybringwarmeranddrierthan
averagewinterconditionsacrosssoutheastAsia,whilstLaNiaepisodesbringcoolerthanaverage
summers.

RecentClimateTrends
Temperature

Meanannualtemperaturehasincreasedby0.4Csince1960,arateofaround0.09Cper
decade.Therateofincreaseismostrapidinthedryseasons(NDJandFMA)atarateof
0.140.15Cperdecadeandslowerinthewetseasons(MJJandASO)atarate0.080.11C
perdecade.ThiswarminghasbeenmorerapidinthesouthernpartsofVietnamthanthe
centralandnorthernregions.

Vietnam

Thefrequencyofhotdays1andhotnightshasincreasedsignificantlysince1960inevery
season.
o TheaveragenumberofhotdaysperyearinVietnamhasincreasedby29(an
additional7.8%ofdays2)between1960and2003.Therateofincreaseisseenmost
stronglyinSONwhentheaveragenumberofhotSONdayshasincreasedby2.9
dayspermonth(anadditional9.5%ofSONdays)overthisperiod.
o Theaveragenumberofhotnightsperyearincreasedby49(anadditional13.3%of
nights)between1960and2003.TherateofincreaseisseenmoststronglyinJJA
whentheaveragenumberofhotJJAnightshasincreasedby5.1dayspermonth(an
additional16.3%ofJJAnights)overthisperiod.
Thefrequencyofcolddays3andnights,annually,hasdecreasedsignificantlysince1960.
o Theaveragenumberofcolddaysperyearhasdecreasedby11(3.0%ofdays)
between1960and2003.ThisrateofdecreaseismostrapidinDJFwhentheaverage
numberofcoldDJFdayshasdecreasedby1.9dayspermonth(6.0%ofDJFdays)
overthisperiod.
o Theaveragenumberofcoldnightsperyearhasdecreasedby35(9.5%ofdays).
ThisrateofdecreaseismostrapidinDJFwhentheaveragenumberofcoldDJF
nightshasdecreasedby4nightspermonth(12.8%ofDJFnights)overthisperiod.

Precipitation

MeanrainfalloverVietnamdoesnotshowanyconsistentincreaseordecreasesince1960.

Neithertheproportionofrainfallthatoccursinheavy4events,northemagnitudeof
maximum1and5daydayeventshavealteredsignificantlyorconsistentlyoverthe
observedperiod.

GCMProjectionsofFutureClimate
Temperature

Themeanannualtemperatureisprojectedtoincreaseby0.8to2.7Cbythe2060s,and1.4
to4.2degreesbythe2090s.Therangeofprojectionsbythe2090sunderanyoneemissions
scenarioisaround1.52.0C.
TheprojectedrateofwarmingissimilarinallseasonsandregionsofVietnam.

Allprojectionsindicatesubstantialincreasesinthefrequencyofdaysandnightsthatare
consideredhotincurrentclimate.

Hotdayorhotnightisdefinedbythetemperatureexceededon10%ofdaysornightsincurrentclimateofthatregionandseason.
Theincreaseinfrequencyoverthe43yearperiodbetween1960and2003isestimatedbasedonthedecadaltrendquotedinthe
summarytable.
3
Colddaysorcoldnightsaredefinedasthetemperaturebelowwhich10%ofdaysornightsarerecordedincurrentclimateofthat
regionorseason.
4
AHeavyeventisdefinedasadailyrainfalltotalwhichexceedsthethresholdthatisexceededon5%ofrainydaysincurrenttheclimate
ofthatregionandseason.
2

Vietnam

Annually,projectionsindicatethathotdayswilloccuron1741%ofdaysbythe
2060s,and2355%ofdaysbythe2090s.Daysconsideredhotbycurrentclimate
standardsfortheirseasonareprojectedtoincreasefastestinsummer(MJJ),
occurringon2687%ofdaysoftheseasonbythe2090s.
Nightsthatareconsideredhotfortheannualclimateof197099areprojected
increaseatafasterratethanhotdays,occurringon2551%ofnightsbythe2060s
and3468%ofnightsbythe2090s.Nightsthatareconsideredhotforeachseason
areprojectedtoincreasemostrapidlyinsummer(MJJ)occurringon5592%of
nightsineveryseasonbythe2090s.
Allprojectionsindicatedecreasesinthefrequencyofdaysandnightsthatare
consideredcoldincurrentclimate.Theseeventsareexpectedtobecome
exceedinglyrare,occurringon06%ofdaysintheyear,potentiallynotatallunder
thehigheremissionsscenariosbythe2090s.

Precipitation

Projectionsofmeanannualrainfallfromdifferentmodelsintheensemblearebroadly
consistentinindicatingincreasesinrainfallforVietnam.Thisincreaseismainlyduetothe
projectedincreasesinASOrainfall(1to+33%bythe2090s),butispartiallyoffsetby
projecteddecreasesinFMA(62to+23%).

Theproportionoftotalrainfallthatfallsinheavyeventsisprojectedinincreasebyallthe
modelsintheensemble,byanadditional2to14%bythe2090s.Again,theseincreasesarise
mainlyduetoincreasesinheavyeventsinASOandMJJrainfall,andarepartiallyoffsetby
decreasesinNDJandFMA.
Allmodelsintheensembleprojectincreasesinthemagnitudeof1and5dayrainfallsofup
to43mmand52mm,respectively,bythe2090s.

Vietnam

OtherRegionalClimateChangeInformation

TropicalcyclonesarepoorlycapturedbyGCMsandthuspotentialchangesinintensityand
tracksoftropicalcyclonesinthefutureareveryuncertain.Whilstevidenceindicatesthat
tropicalcyclonesarelikelytobecome,onthewhole,moreintenseunderawarmerclimate
asaresultofhigherseasurfacetemperatures,thereisgreatuncertaintyinchangesin
frequency,andchangestostormtracksandtheirinteractionswithotherfeaturesofclimate
variability,suchasENSO,whichintroducesuncertaintyattheregionalscale.The
uncertaintyinpotentialchangesintropicalcyclonesalsocontributestouncertaintiesin
futurewetseasonrainfall(Christensenetal.,2007).
Modelsimulationsshowwidedisagreementsinprojectedchangesintheamplitudeoffuture
ElNioevents.ENSOinfluencesthemonsoonvariabilityinSouthEastAsia,arelationship
whichisalsopoorlyunderstood,contributingtouncertaintyinclimateprojectionsforthis
region.
Vietnamscoastallowlandsarevulnerabletosealevelrise.Sealevelinthisregionis
projectedbyclimatemodelstorisebythefollowinglevels5bythe2090s,relativeto1980
1999sealevel:
o 0.18to0.43munderSRESB1
o 0.21to0.52munderSRESA1B
o 0.23to0.56munderSRESA2

ForfurtherinformationonclimatechangeprojectionsforAsiaseeChristensenetal.(2007)
IPCCWorkingGroupIReport:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,Chapter11(RegionalClimate
projections):Section11.4(Asia).

TakenfromtheIPCCWorkinggroupI(ThePhysicalScienceBasis):Chapter10(GlobalClimateProjections)(Meehletal.,2007).Regional
sealevelprojectionsareestimatedbyapplyingregionaladjustments(Fig10.32,p813)toprojectedglobalmeansealevelrisefrom14AR4
models.

Vietnam

DataSummary
Observed
Mean
197099

Observed
Trend
19602006

(C)

(changeinC
perdecade)

Annual

23.5

0.09*

NDJ

20.1

0.15*

FMA

22.7

0.14*

MJJ

26.1

0.11*

ASO

24.9

0.08*

(mmper
month)

(changein
mmper
decade)

Annual

143.2

0.6

NDJ

70.3

0.9

FMA

47.2

0.0

MJJ

218.8

0.7

ASO

236.3

2.8

(mmper
month)

(changein%
perdecade)

Annual

143.2

0.4

NDJ

70.3

1.3

FMA

47.2

0.0

MJJ

218.8

0.3

ASO

236.3

1.2

Projectedchangesbythe
2030s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2060s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2090s
Min Median Max

ChangeinC

ChangeinC

Temperature
ChangeinC

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3

0.9
1.1
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9

1.3
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.1

1.5
1.5
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.1
0.6

2.0
2.0
1.4
2.0
1.7
1.4
2.0
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.1
1.3
2.0
2.0
1.4

2.7
2.5
1.9
2.8
2.9
2.0
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.8
2.7
1.9
2.6
2.5
2.0

2.5
2.0
1.4
2.2
1.6
1.3
2.3
2.0
1.3
2.8
2.1
1.3
2.5
2.0
1.3

3.2
2.6
1.7
3.1
2.4
1.8
3.5
2.8
1.7
3.4
2.9
1.7
3.2
2.5
1.7

4.2
3.8
2.4
4.5
3.8
2.7
4.7
4.5
2.8
4.8
4.0
2.8
4.2
3.5
2.3

Precipitation

Changeinmmpermonth
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

10
6
10
10
17
17
16
11
13
19
11
11
9
13
13

3
0
0
4
3
3
5
3
3
1
2
5
0
3
4

12
14
9
6
10
11
8
11
7
26
34
13
23
22
21

Changeinmmpermonth
6
6
1
9
14
12
16
14
10
23
17
4
6
1
6

0
1
2
3
0
3
3
5
2
4
3
6
5
20
9

15
21
13
4
10
16
8
6
9
27
38
32
41
38
28

Changeinmmpermonth
4
3
4
28
13
17
14
16
11
24
16
6
1
4
1

0
3
5
6
3
4
6
6
2
9
8
7
25
17
14

37
24
10
18
13
7
6
9
7
51
46
33
86
38
33

Precipitation(%)

%Change

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

9
5
6
27
39
16
47
32
34
14
8
7
5
6
6

%Change

2
0
0
8
4
3
11
6
7
1
1
2
0
2
2

7
8
7
11
19
21
8
21
19
15
19
7
11
12
9

6
4
1
26
22
32
36
45
45
9
7
2
3
1
4

0
1
1
8
1
4
6
11
2
2
1
2
3
10
5

%Change
12
12
8
8
18
31
19
13
18
15
22
18
20
16
11

4
3
4
38
27
22
62
57
48
13
9
3
1
1
0

0
3
3
10
6
8
17
12
2
4
4
3
12
9
7

21
14
9
35
12
13
11
23
15
30
26
14
33
20
16

Observed
Mean
197099

Observed
Trend
19602006

%
Frequency

Changein
frequency
perdecade

Vietnam

Projectedchangesbythe
2030s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2060s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2090s
Min Median Max

Future%frequency

Future%frequency

FrequencyofHotDays(TX90p)
Annual

11.0

1.83*

NDJ
(DJF)

10.4

(1.51*)

FMA
(MAM)

11.2

(1.55*)

MJJ
(JJA)

11.1

(1.43*)

ASO
(SON)

11.1

(2.21*)

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

23
20
17
19
20
16
20
17
16
30
25
22
33
34
26

30
28
20
30
30
22
29
32
24
39
39
28
45
51
42

41
40
35
39
38
33
41
42
34
66
63
56
59
61
53

31
28
23
33
25
22
34
31
21
42
38
26
54
46
34

42
37
27
50
39
30
46
40
27
55
52
35
63
58
46

55
52
41
55
49
39
55
51
40
87
85
64
79
73
60

44
44
34
32
30
22
34
34
27
69
71
56
60
66
48

51
50
41
44
43
39
48
49
39
81
84
68
71
72
61

46
42
34
30
26
21
36
30
21
85
74
55
64
61
50

56
52
41
48
40
28
51
47
33
90
85
67
83
77
54

68
62
48
62
57
43
67
61
45
92
91
80
86
84
69

4
4
4
4
3
4
5
4
5
2
2
3
3
3
3

6
6
8
7
7
9
6
5
7
3
3
4
6
4
5

0
1
3
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1

2
3
4
1
2
3
3
4
3
0
1
2
2
2
2

4
5
6
4
6
6
4
4
6
2
3
3
4
5
5

4
4
4
2
2
3
4
3
4
1
1
2
3
2
3

6
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
3
3
3
4
4
6

0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1

1
2
4
0
1
3
2
2
3
0
1
1
1
2
3

2
4
5
2
3
4
3
3
5
1
2
3
2
3
5

FrequencyofHotNights(TN90p)
Annual

11.4

3.09*

NDJ
(DJF)

12.0

(3.27*)

FMA
(MAM)

12.0

(3.25*)

MJJ
(JJA)

12.3

(3.80*)

ASO
(SON)

11.6

(3.12*)

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

35
32
25
19
19
12
24
20
17
58
48
36
50
49
41

FrequencyofColdDays(TX10p)
Annual

10.0

0.69*

NDJ
(DJF)

9.6

(1.39*)

FMA
(MAM)

10.1

(0.28)

MJJ
(JJA)

9.8

(0.53)

ASO
(SON)

10.0

(0.74*)

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

3
2
4
2
1
2
3
3
3
0
0
2
0
0
2

FrequencyofColdNights(TN10p)

Annual

8.4

2.20*

NDJ
(DJF)

8.2

(2.97*)

FMA
(MAM)

8.1

(2.39*)

MJJ
(JJA)

8.1

(2.34*)

ASO
(SON)

8.7

(1.51*)

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

3
2
3
1
0
2
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
1
1

Observed
Mean
197099

Observed
Trend
19602006

Changein%
perdecade

Annual

22.8

0.8

NDJ
(DJF)

****

****

FMA
(MAM)

****

****

MJJ
(JJA)

****

****

ASO
(SON)

****

****

mm

Changein
mmper
decade

Annual

113.4

2.41

NDJ
(DJF)

10.6

(0.73)

FMA
(MAM)

34.4

(0.85)

MJJ
(JJA)

67.7

(0.24)

ASO
(SON)

40.6

(0.98)

mm

Changein
mmper
decade

Annual

186.8

0.27

NDJ
(DJF)

16.1

(0.64)

FMA
(MAM)

55.5

(2.05)

MJJ
(JJA)

118.1

(1.43)

ASO
(SON)

76.6

(0.95)

Vietnam

Projectedchangesbythe
2030s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2060s
Min Median Max

Projectedchangesbythe
2090s
Min Median Max

%totalrainfallfallinginHeavyEvents(R95pct)
Changein%

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

0
0
0
9
6
13
11
7
5
0
0
0
0
1
0

3
2
1
3
1
0
1
1
0
3
3
2
3
3
1

Changein%
6
8
5
2
6
12
6
5
9
8
8
6
8
7
4

2
2
1
15
8
9
11
16
7
1
1
1
2
2
0

5
4
3
4
1
1
2
1
0
5
4
3
7
7
3

14
12
9
1
7
6
6
7
6
12
10
8
16
13
9

Maximum1dayrainfall(RX1day)

Changeinmm

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

0
0
0
6
3
9
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0

3
6
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
1
2
4
2

Changeinmm
21
23
15
8
8
11
2
1
5
9
15
8
15
14
12

0
1
0
6
3
5
5
5
4
0
0
0
1
1
0

9
10
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
6
5
4
7
9
3

43
39
24
11
16
12
4
2
2
20
15
7
30
28
18

Maximum5dayRainfall(RX5day)

Changeinmm

A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****
****

0
1
2
11
6
14
7
8
7
0
1
0
0
2
0

10
13
7
2
0
0
2
2
1
6
6
4
8
10
3

Changeinmm
23
28
17
11
14
16
4
5
10
20
19
12
17
22
17

3
3
0
12
12
13
10
12
8
2
2
1
2
3
0

*indicatestrendisstatisticallysignificantat95%confidence
****indicatesdataarenotavailable
Bracketedtrendvaluesforextremesindicesindicatevaluesfortheclosestseasonsthatdataisavailable.Seedocumentation.

18
18
11
3
1
0
1
0
0
9
10
6
15
16
7

48
52
26
14
19
18
8
6
3
33
24
16
51
48
22

Vietnam

Figure 1: Trends in annual and seasonal mean temperature for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean
climate. Black curves show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, Brown curves show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of model simulations of
recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Coloured lines from 2006 onwards show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of the ensemble projections of
climate under three emissions scenarios. Coloured bars on the right-hand side of the projections summarise the range of mean 2090-2100 climates simulated by the
15 models for each emissions scenario.

Vietnam

Figure 2: Spatial patterns of projected change in mean annual and seasonal temperature for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are
anomalies relative to the mean climate of 1970-1999. In each grid box, the central value gives the ensemble median and the values in the upper and lower corners
give the ensemble maximum and minimum.

Vietnam

Figure 3: Trends in monthly precipitation for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean climate. See
Figure 1 for details.

10

Vietnam

Figure 4: Spatial patterns of projected change in monthly precipitation for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative
to the mean climate of 1970-1999.See Figure 2 for details.

11

Vietnam

Figure 5: Trends in monthly precipitation for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are percentage anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean climate.
See Figure 1 for details.

12

Vietnam

Figure 6: Spatial patterns of projected change in monthly precipitation for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are percentage
anomalies relative to the mean climate of 1970-1999.See Figure 2 for details.

13

Vietnam

Figure 7: Trends in Hot-day frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details.

14

Vietnam

Figure 8: Spatial patterns of projected change in Hot-day frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details.

15

Vietnam

Figure 9: Trends in hot-night frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details.

16

Vietnam

Figure 10: Spatial patterns of projected change in hot-night frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details.

17

Vietnam

Figure 11: Trends in cold-day frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details.

18

Vietnam

Figure 12: Spatial patterns of projected change in cold-day frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details.

19

Vietnam

Figure 13: Trends in cold-night frequency for the recent past and projected future. See Figure 1 for details.

20

Vietnam

Figure 14: Spatial patterns of projected change in cold-night frequency for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. See Figure 2 for details.

21

Vietnam

Figure 15: Trends in the proportion of precipitation falling in heavy events for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the
1970-1999 mean climate. See Figure 1 for details.

22

Vietnam

Figure 16: Spatial patterns of projected change in the proportion of precipitation falling in heavy events for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario.
All values are anomalies relative to the mean climate of 1970-1999. See Figure 2 for details.

23

Vietnam

Figure 17: Trends in maximum 1-day rainfall for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean climate. See
Figure 1 for details.

24

Vietnam

Figure 18: Spatial patterns of maximum 1-day rainfall for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies relative to the mean
climate of 1970-1999. See Figure 2 for details.

25

Vietnam

Figure 19: Trends in maximum 5-day rainfall for the recent past and projected future. All values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean climate. See
Figure 1 for details.

26

Vietnam

Figure 20: Spatial patterns of projected change in maximum 5-day rainfall for 10-year periods in the future under the SRES A2 scenario. All values are anomalies
relative to the mean climate of 1970-1999. See Figure 2 for details.

27