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VA-Gov PPP for LCV (Oct. 2013) - Early Voters Only

VA-Gov PPP for LCV (Oct. 2013) - Early Voters Only

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 22, 2013
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10/25/2013

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Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy PollingTo: Interested PartiesSubject: McAuliffe banking large lead in early votingDate: October 22, 2013
A new Public Policy Polling survey o
f early voters in the Virginia Governor’s race finds
Terry McAuliffe
 building up a large early lead. He’s at 57% to 39% for Ken Cuccinelli
and 3% for Robert Sarvis among those who have already cast their ballots.The numbers are a mirror image of the 2009 early voting results. Last time around BobMcDonnell won them by an 18 point margin over Creigh Deeds, 59/41. This time the 18 point lead is on the Democratic side.Key findings from the survey include:-McAuliffe has a wide lead over Cuccinelli among independent voters at 54/37. He alsohas his party more unified around him, getting 87% of Democrats compared to
Cuccinelli’s 84% of Republicans.
 -
McAuliffe’s building a particularly substantial lead with female voters, getting 60% who
have voted so far compared to 36% for Cuccinelli. The early vote numbers also suggestthat McAuliffe is performing far better among white voters than Democrats normally doin Virginia. He has a 55/41 advantage with those who have already voted.-
There’s been a lot of speculation that Libertarian Robert Sarvis will not end up getting as
much suppo
rt at the ballot box as he’s been showing in the polls. His 3% standing amongthose who have already voted confirms that, but McAuliffe’s large overall lead indicatesthat a decline in support for Sarvis doesn’t do much for Cuccinelli’s prospects.
 PPP interviewed 724 early voters on October 19
th
and 20
th
with a margin of error of +/-3.6% on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters.
 
October 19-20, 2013
Survey of 724 early voters
October 19-20, 2013
Survey of 724 early voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Virginia Survey Results
Q1
Have you already voted, either at an earlyvoting site or with an absentee ballot, in thisfall’s election for Governor and other stateoffices?100%
Have
...............................................................
0%
Have not
.........................................................
Q2
In the election for Governor, did you vote for Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat TerryMcAuliffe, or Libertarian Robert Sarvis?39%
Ken Cuccinelli
................................................
57%
Terry McAuliffe
................................................
3%
Robert Sarvis
..................................................
1%
Undecided
.......................................................
Q3
Which of the candidates for Governor do youtrust most to address energy issues?39%
Ken Cuccinelli
................................................
56%
Terry McAuliffe
................................................
2%
Robert Sarvis
..................................................
3%
Not sure
..........................................................
Q4
In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?57%
Barack Obama
................................................
41%
Mitt Romney
....................................................
2%
Someone else/Don't remember 
......................
Q5
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.51%
Woman
...........................................................
49%
Man
.................................................................
Q6
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.44%
Democrat
........................................................
29%
Republican
......................................................
27%
Independent/Other 
..........................................
Q7
If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.5%
Hispanic
..........................................................
78%
White
..............................................................
10%
 African-American
............................................
7%
Other 
...............................................................
Q8
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.10%
18 to 29
...........................................................
8%
30 to 45
...........................................................
39%
46 to 65
...........................................................
43%
Older than 65
..................................................
 
October 19-20, 2013
survey of 724 early voters
October 19-20, 2013
survey of 724 early voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
 
 
Base2012 VoteBarackObamaMittRomneySomeone else/Don'tremember Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/-SarvisKen CuccinelliTerry McAuliffeRobert SarvisUndecided 39%
6% 86% 7%
57%
91% 11% 22%
3%
2% 2% 32%
1%
1% 0% 39%
 Base2012 VoteBarackObamaMittRomneySomeone else/Don'tremember Most Trusted to Address EnergyKen CuccinelliTerry McAuliffeRobert SarvisNot sure 39%
6% 85% 15%
56%
89% 11% 39%
2%
2% 1% 24%
3%
3% 3% 23%
 BaseGender WomanManCuccinelli/McAuliffe/-SarvisKen CuccinelliTerry McAuliffeRobert SarvisUndecided 39%
36% 42%
57%
60% 53%
3%
2% 3%
1%
1% 1%
 BaseGender WomanManMost Trusted to Address EnergyKen CuccinelliTerry McAuliffeRobert SarvisNot sure 39%
35% 43%
56%
61% 50%
2%
2% 2%
3%
2% 5%

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