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Global Economic Outlook, Q4 2013: The impact of Fed tapering on emerging economies: Struggling with the ebb

Global Economic Outlook, Q4 2013: The impact of Fed tapering on emerging economies: Struggling with the ebb

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Published by: Deloitte University Press on Oct 24, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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4th Quarter 2013
By Dr. Patricia Buckley
Te US labor market is experiencing only moderate improvement, but a rebound in residential con-struction might be the spark that ignites stronger growth in 2014. However, the potential impact o congressional ailure to provide a stable scal policy could pose a threat to the US economy.
By Navya Kumar and Akrur Barua
Many emerging economies have experienced a sharp all in currency and capital markets because o theUS Federal Reserve’s plans to taper quantitative easing. Dierences between the current situation andthe Asian nancial crisis o the 1990s suggest that policymakers in emerging markets may have an op-portunity to ocus on reorms aimed at enhancing competitiveness and removing structural bottlenecks.
By Dr. Alexander Börsch
A long recession may be coming to a close in the Eurozone, but growth remains less than spectacular.A slowdown in emerging markets, continuing troubles in Europe’s credit markets, and persistently highunemployment still pose risks to economic growth in the Eurozone.
By Dr. Ira Kalish
Japan’s perormance in the wake o the new economic policy has actually been quite good. Growth hasbeen strong, and various economic indicators—increased equity prices, a lower yen, increased ination,and strengthening exports—look promising. However, risks stemming rom the impending increase inthe national sales tax persist.
By Dr. Ira Kalish
Strong industrial production, improving exports, and a rebound o credit creation suggest a stabilizationo Chinese growth aer a period o deceleration. On the other hand, the risk o credit expansion, thetools that the government might use to improve bank saety, and a property price bubble suggest thatbanking reorm remains critical.
4th Quarter 2013
Global Economic Outlook
By Ian Stewart
Tings have changed in recent months, and the British economy appears to be on the mend. Tere isnow concern that the housing market is exhibiting signs o a bubble. Positive external actors, includingan easing o economic stress in Europe and a recovery in the United States, have played a role.
By Dr. Rumki Majumdar
Declining economic growth, high ination, declining scal discipline, a widening external decit, anddiminishing business condence are hampering India’s economic outlook. Moreover, a new central bank governor is ocusing on ination and nancial stability rather than growth, so the best path orward orIndia involves structural reorms that have yet to be implemented.
By Navya Kumar
Despite a rebound in growth in the second quarter, the outlook remains troubling because o slow growth in the third quarter, excessive ination, and a deteriorating external balance. Te central bank has tightened monetary policy in order to stabilize the currency and ght ination, and the governmentis tightening scal policy in order to maintain scal probity. Te primary hope or better perormancemay rest with prospects or reer trade, especially with the EU.
By Akrur Barua
Slowing growth, weakening investments, and poorly perorming exports are weighing on Russia’seconomy. Moreover, excessive reliance on hydrocarbons means that alling energy prices are harmulto growth. With ination running relatively high, the central bank is not likely to signicantly loosenpolicy. Furthermore, oreign direct investment has dried up, and unds are owing out o the country.
GDP growth rates, ination rates, major currencies versus the US dollar, yield curves, composite medianGDP orecasts, composite median currency orecasts, OECD composite leading indicators
4th Quarter 2013

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