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Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

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Published by Reos Partners
Reos Institute Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng
Reos Institute Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

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Published by: Reos Partners on Oct 29, 2013
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This work is licensed under the Creave Commons Aribuon
-
Noncommercial-No Derivave Works 3.0 unported License.To view a copy of this license, visit creavecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
inokeng Scenarios 
 
Collectively constructing asustainable future for South Africa
REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES
 
THE PROJECT AT A GLANCE:
Issue:
Democracy
Geography:
South Africa
Duraton:
2008-2012
Co-Convenors:
Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Mr. Bob Head, Ms. Graça Machel, Dr.Vincent Maphai, and Mr. Rick Menell.
Scenarios:
“Walk Apart, “Walk Behind”, “Walk Together”.
 
 
Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | Dinokeng Scenarios
2
The Context
In 2008, South Africa was experiencing the tumble of seismic polical shis. The previous year at thenaonal conference of the African Naonal Congress(ANC), President Thabo Mbeki had lost the party’sleadership to Jacob Zuma. In 2008, Mbeki and anumber of senior cabinet ministers resigned, withJacob Zuma assuming the country’s presidency aerthe naonal elecons in 2009. The me was markedby uncertainty. Polical leaders were consumed by thestruggle for power and ensuing reshuing within theANC.Meanwhile the world was in the midst of the worsteconomic crisis since the Great Depression. WhileSouth Africa has been buressed by strong nancialregulaons and prudent scal and monetary policies,the global economic downturn sent tremors throughthe local economy in the form of job losses, shrinkingcapital nancing, and decreases in direct foreigninvestment. The South African GDP growth rate sunkfrom 6% in early 2008 to a low of 2,9% in late 2009.Employment fell by 500,000 jobs across the sameperiod.South Africa was also experiencing large-scalemigraon from the neighbouring state of Zimbabweand other countries in the region. Xenophobic aackspersisted across the stressed area. In addion, theeects of climate change and economic crisis placedincreasing pressure on agricultural producon, ruralsustainability, and food security. People remainedexposed to unacceptably high levels of crime.In the 15 years of South Africa’s democracy, therealies of construcng a new naon had revealedthemselves as an enrely grier and more complextask than its people had ancipated.In response to these predicaments, a group of 35 SouthAfricans from a wide spectrum of society came togetherto think deeply about South Africa’s context and to
Dinokeng Scenarios 2008-2012 
Collectively constructing
a sustainable future forSouth Africa
 
Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | Dinokeng Scenarios
3
collecvely construct and consider possible scenarios of the country’s future.
The Convenors
The scenario team comprised leaders from civil societyand government, polical pares, business, publicadministraon, trade unions, religious groups, academia,and the media. Members were brought together by sixconvenors, all of whom were acvely engaged in naonalissues. They were Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, who chairedthe convenor group, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane,Mr. Bob Head, Ms. Graça Machel, Dr. Vincent Maphai,and Mr. Rick Menell.The team was a diverse group of individuals with widelydiering perspecves and experiences. Membersdebated robustly and did not agree on everything. Whatthey shared was a common commitment to theprinciples of South Africa’s Constuon, an appreciaonof the country’s heritage, and a very real concern abouthow they, as cizen-leaders, could contribute to theconstrucon of a sustainable future for South Africa.
The Process
The team implemented two disnct, thoughoverlapping, phases. In the rst, members focused onsensing the South African context and construcngand capturing the scenarios; in the second, theysought the most eecve means of sharing this workwith others.
Phase I (2008-2009): Sensing and Building
The rst phase of the Dinokeng exercise involved anintensive process spanning 10 months, from August2008 to April 2009. It included in-depth interviews byscenario team members with a wide array of leadersfrom all sectors of society. This part of the process wasfollowed by three separate three-day workshops in2008 and a fourth workshop in 2009.Facilitators prepared a synthesis report on theinterviews, which they shared with the team. Severalthemes emerged, including the character of SouthAfrica’s democracy; the government’s capacity todeliver in core areas such as educaon and healthcare; and a model of development and growth.Scenario team members reviewed the quesonsraised in the interviews and, through structuredconversaons, deepened their understanding of SouthAfrica’s key challenges.

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