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Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

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Published by Reos Partners
Reos Institute Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng
Reos Institute Scenarios Case Study - Dinokeng

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Published by: Reos Partners on Oct 29, 2013
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This work is licensed under the Creave Commons Aribuon
Noncommercial-No Derivave Works 3.0 unported License.To view a copy of this license, visit creavecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
inokeng Scenarios 
Collectively constructing asustainable future for South Africa
South Africa
Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, Mr. Bob Head, Ms. Graça Machel, Dr.Vincent Maphai, and Mr. Rick Menell.
“Walk Apart, “Walk Behind”, “Walk Together”.
Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | Dinokeng Scenarios
The Context
In 2008, South Africa was experiencing the tumble of seismic polical shis. The previous year at thenaonal conference of the African Naonal Congress(ANC), President Thabo Mbeki had lost the party’sleadership to Jacob Zuma. In 2008, Mbeki and anumber of senior cabinet ministers resigned, withJacob Zuma assuming the country’s presidency aerthe naonal elecons in 2009. The me was markedby uncertainty. Polical leaders were consumed by thestruggle for power and ensuing reshuing within theANC.Meanwhile the world was in the midst of the worsteconomic crisis since the Great Depression. WhileSouth Africa has been buressed by strong nancialregulaons and prudent scal and monetary policies,the global economic downturn sent tremors throughthe local economy in the form of job losses, shrinkingcapital nancing, and decreases in direct foreigninvestment. The South African GDP growth rate sunkfrom 6% in early 2008 to a low of 2,9% in late 2009.Employment fell by 500,000 jobs across the sameperiod.South Africa was also experiencing large-scalemigraon from the neighbouring state of Zimbabweand other countries in the region. Xenophobic aackspersisted across the stressed area. In addion, theeects of climate change and economic crisis placedincreasing pressure on agricultural producon, ruralsustainability, and food security. People remainedexposed to unacceptably high levels of crime.In the 15 years of South Africa’s democracy, therealies of construcng a new naon had revealedthemselves as an enrely grier and more complextask than its people had ancipated.In response to these predicaments, a group of 35 SouthAfricans from a wide spectrum of society came togetherto think deeply about South Africa’s context and to
Dinokeng Scenarios 2008-2012 
Collectively constructing
a sustainable future forSouth Africa
Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | Dinokeng Scenarios
collecvely construct and consider possible scenarios of the country’s future.
The Convenors
The scenario team comprised leaders from civil societyand government, polical pares, business, publicadministraon, trade unions, religious groups, academia,and the media. Members were brought together by sixconvenors, all of whom were acvely engaged in naonalissues. They were Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, who chairedthe convenor group, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane,Mr. Bob Head, Ms. Graça Machel, Dr. Vincent Maphai,and Mr. Rick Menell.The team was a diverse group of individuals with widelydiering perspecves and experiences. Membersdebated robustly and did not agree on everything. Whatthey shared was a common commitment to theprinciples of South Africa’s Constuon, an appreciaonof the country’s heritage, and a very real concern abouthow they, as cizen-leaders, could contribute to theconstrucon of a sustainable future for South Africa.
The Process
The team implemented two disnct, thoughoverlapping, phases. In the rst, members focused onsensing the South African context and construcngand capturing the scenarios; in the second, theysought the most eecve means of sharing this workwith others.
Phase I (2008-2009): Sensing and Building
The rst phase of the Dinokeng exercise involved anintensive process spanning 10 months, from August2008 to April 2009. It included in-depth interviews byscenario team members with a wide array of leadersfrom all sectors of society. This part of the process wasfollowed by three separate three-day workshops in2008 and a fourth workshop in 2009.Facilitators prepared a synthesis report on theinterviews, which they shared with the team. Severalthemes emerged, including the character of SouthAfrica’s democracy; the government’s capacity todeliver in core areas such as educaon and healthcare; and a model of development and growth.Scenario team members reviewed the quesonsraised in the interviews and, through structuredconversaons, deepened their understanding of SouthAfrica’s key challenges.

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