Reos Partners Scenarios Case Study Series 2013 | Dinokeng Scenarios
collecvely construct and consider possible scenarios of the country’s future.
The scenario team comprised leaders from civil societyand government, polical pares, business, publicadministraon, trade unions, religious groups, academia,and the media. Members were brought together by sixconvenors, all of whom were acvely engaged in naonalissues. They were Dr. Mamphela Ramphele, who chairedthe convenor group, Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane,Mr. Bob Head, Ms. Graça Machel, Dr. Vincent Maphai,and Mr. Rick Menell.The team was a diverse group of individuals with widelydiering perspecves and experiences. Membersdebated robustly and did not agree on everything. Whatthey shared was a common commitment to theprinciples of South Africa’s Constuon, an appreciaonof the country’s heritage, and a very real concern abouthow they, as cizen-leaders, could contribute to theconstrucon of a sustainable future for South Africa.
The team implemented two disnct, thoughoverlapping, phases. In the rst, members focused onsensing the South African context and construcngand capturing the scenarios; in the second, theysought the most eecve means of sharing this workwith others.
Phase I (2008-2009): Sensing and Building
The rst phase of the Dinokeng exercise involved anintensive process spanning 10 months, from August2008 to April 2009. It included in-depth interviews byscenario team members with a wide array of leadersfrom all sectors of society. This part of the process wasfollowed by three separate three-day workshops in2008 and a fourth workshop in 2009.Facilitators prepared a synthesis report on theinterviews, which they shared with the team. Severalthemes emerged, including the character of SouthAfrica’s democracy; the government’s capacity todeliver in core areas such as educaon and healthcare; and a model of development and growth.Scenario team members reviewed the quesonsraised in the interviews and, through structuredconversaons, deepened their understanding of SouthAfrica’s key challenges.