Climate vulnerability assessment for urban area in the Netherlands

Frans van de Ven, Chris Zevenbergen, Leendert van Bree

Deltares / TU Delft, UNESCO-IHE and Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

18 maart 2013

Climate change and urban areas

Research objectives: How vulnerable are Dutch villages and cities for CC? How to reduce this vulnerability by adaptation measures? When to implement these? Who?

18 januari 2011

Conclusions (1)
9.83% 4.18% 25.82% 28.32%

Vulnerability Most urban areas in NL are vulnerable for flooding, drought and heat stress Vulnerability is not only result of exposure; also damage sensitivity (susceptibility) and adaptability Only relative vulnerability per theme was assessable Vulnerability varies largely per theme, region and town section No relation found between vulnerability and urban typology
31.85% 0 1 2 3 4

Legend
Exposure
Aggregate Themes
0 1

0 510 20 30 40 Kilometers

2 3 4

18 januari 2011

Conclusions (2)
Adaptation Through synergy with urban reconstruction 88 % of our urban areas could be climate resilient by 2060 Many low-cost, low-regret adaptation options. Low-cost climate adaption seems feasible! Adaptation measures depend on local conditions and preferences Effectiveness of measures is location-specific and hard to quantify; research is needed! Climate adaptation is to be part of urban development policy at all levels. Legislation is to be considered

18 januari 2011

CC and urban areas in NL

Climate change leads to more exposure of urban areas Sea level rise More and more heavy rainfall More sever droughts River flood peaks Higher temperatures, more evaporation / water demand Dutch cities are vulnerable because: Site conditions (low, no gradient, soft soil) Build centuries ago, with design criteria used in these days Reconstruction only once per 50 100 year

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CC vulnerability of the urban system

Climate change

Urban climate Hazard Exposure Sensitivity Vulnerability

Mitigation

Urban development

Adaptation measures

Adaptive capacity

Climate Governance

Urban Governance

KvK voorstel Climate Proof Cities, 2009

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Vulnerability
Vulnerability is result of: Exposure - frequency and degree of Damage sensitivity (susceptibility) Adaptability Exposure: Indicative assessment, using data mining Damage sensitivity Poorly known Adaptability Aging of buildings and infrastructure indicative (?)
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Themes investigated
Coastal and fluvial flooding Pluvial and groundwater flooding Drought Heat stress For municipalities > 25.000 inhabitants

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Coastal and fluvial flooding

Hazard Exposure Damage Victims

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Coastal and fluvial flooding

Hazards from: Sea Rivers, lakes, main canals Secundary drainage system Exposure and susceptibility Depth, duration and size of inundations increase 30% of housing areas exposed Most floodprone houses are post WWII; Cultural heritage flood risk free Victims and direct economic damage are assessed; indirect damage hardly known Flood risk Exposure does not increase . . but hazard and damage sensitivity does!

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Pluvial flooding
Amsterdam Rotterdam % flood - affected 's-Gravenhage buildings Utrecht and infrastructure Eindhoven for 77 mm storm Almere Tilburg Groningen Nijmegen Haarlem Arnhem

Predicted runoff distributions for a 54mm precipitation event for the Rotterdam region

Breda Apeldoorn Enschede Amersfoort Zoetermeer Dordrecht Leiden Maastricht Zwolle 0.0% 5.0% 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 % % % % % ratio buildings ratio infra

Flow accumulations for Delft

Pluvial flooding
Hazard from More intensive rain storms Exposure and susceptibility NL is flat; no flash floods and limited inundation depths Low-lying urban areas at risk Mostly small damage incidents (e.g. flooded basement, flooded road) No relation with urban typology, except in center zones. Adaptation options Increase retention and storage capacity, in particular in low areas.

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Groundwater flooding
700 000

600 000

500 000 Amount of buildings

0 1.250 2.500 5.000 m
Present Situation; Vulnerability to groundwater nuisance
drainage dependent intermediate drainage independent

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

19 19

19 39

19 69

19 59

19 89

19 94

19 79

18 99

19 99

be fo re

19 20

19 60

19 40

19 70

19 90

19 80

19 95

19 00

18 00

fro

fro

fro

fro

fro

fro

Building period intermediary drainage dependent drainage independent

age and vulnerability of buildings to groundwater nuisance

1.250 2.500

5.000 m

KNMI'06 W+ scenario; Vulnerability to groundwater nuisance

drainage dependent intermediate drainage independent

Indicative change in drainage dependency of urban areas (above: current situation; below: situation in the W+ scenario)

fro

fro

fro

la

te rt

he n

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

to

20 00

18 00

Groundwater flooding
Hazards from: Increase in rainfall and river discharges Exposure and susceptibility Groundwater flooding occurs across NL (high - low, sand clay peat soils) Lowlands with their high groundwater table and subsurface drainage system and parks are the most vulnerable More urban development in lowlands after WW II Land subsidence aggravates the problem. Adaptation options Plenty no-regret options available.

Vulnerability to groundwater nuisance

vulnerable not vulnerable
0 15.000 30.000 60.000 Meters

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Groundwater flooding

Drought
Hazard from Less rainfall in summer Exposure and susceptibility Low grw level => low soil moisture & enhanced land subsidence Damage to wooden pile foundations 1/3 of pre-60 buildings ! Tree roots adapt to gradual increase of drought Increased impact of salinization and water temperature on water quality Risk Hard to quantify because of lack of data Damage can increase substantially. Adaptation options Water supply required!
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Vulnerability to drought
not substantial strong

15.000 30.000

60.000 Meters

Heat stress
Hazard from Temperature increase + UHI Exposure ans susceptibility Urban Heat Island effects can increase exponentially with urbanisation Urban land use dependent. Industrial zones and business districts perform poorly. Blue and green buffer the UHI effect Elderly are particularly vulnenerable Air conditioning becomes the standard; fossile energy consumption will increase Outdoor activities less attractive Risk Related to density of urban fabric. Susceptibility not yet quantified.

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Vulnerability
9.83% 4.18%

Total risk due to: Coastal and fluvial flooding Pluvial and groundwater flooding Drought Heat stress In- addable Result: Urban areas on higher ground limited effect No relation to urban typology All cities have their hotspots Young cities relatively vulnearable, because of their low adaptability

25.82%

28.32%

31.85%

Legend
Exposure
Aggregate Themes
0 1

0 510 20 30 40 Kilometers

2 3 4

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Vulnerability
Taking adaptability into account:
2010
6% 18% 40%

19%

17%

2020
4% 11% 13%

61% 11%

spatial distribution of the Expected End of Lifespan

0 1 2 3 4

Adaptive capacity
Urban areas transform each 50 100 years, on average 37% of our urban areas is at its end of economical life span; these areas will need redevelopment in the next 10-20 years 88% of our urban areas could be climate resilient by 2060, if synergy with this redevelopment is realised. So: Adaptive capacity is large Start now, not to miss any opportunities!

Adaptation measures
Adaptability Many measures are no-regret or low-regret

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In conclusion

Adaptive capacity is large (2010-2060) Many low-regret/low-cost measures available Adaptation partly by public, partly by private parties So: Costs of adaptation are limited! Well miss opportunities if we dont start now!

For all details see: Van de Ven, F, E van Nieuwkerk, K. Stone et al ( 2010) Building the Netherlands Climate Proof: urban areas. Report 1201082-000VEB-0003 Deltares and Unesco-IHE, Delft/Utrecht