The flow of foreign capital was also partially re-start, so that the rupiah exchange rate is alsomore stable at Rp10.500 – 11.000 per U.S. dollar.In the past 2008 years, it is known that the development of the national manufacturing industry,especially steel production has reached 4 million tons, but the achievement of this difficult toachieve in the year 2009, because almost all sectors, including property development andinfrastructure affected by joining the global crisis (Data Department of Industries RI, 2008).Besides, the manufacturing industry has also cut the amount of production in 2009, because theglobal financial crisis was the most industrial sectors of steel and a reduction in the amount of labor, told by Erwin Aksa, Chairman of the General Association of Young Indonesian, andnational steel industry to cut production estimate in 2009 of 30% to 40%. Director General of Industrial Metal, Machinery, Textiles and the Ministry of Industry Aneka said that steel production is estimated to Indonesia in 2009 reached 30 percent down to 40 percent, while thenumber of steel production in 2009 is estimated at only 2.4 million to 2.8 million tons. There arethree factors cause producers to reduce the amount of their production.
, the upstream anddownstream producers still have a stock pile of materials that they buy at high prices;
,the weakening of rupiah exchange rate against U.S. dollars;
, the high dependency of thedomestic industry against imports of steel products. Still can not be processed or accumulate rawmaterials of steel, because at the end of the year 2008, some steel producers to import steeldominated the steel form the raw material iron ore, billet, steel and rough (scrap). This is evidentfrom the import of steel during the period January-October 2008 jumped to 124%, compared tothe same period in 2007, from U.S. $ 4.52 billion to U.S. $ 10.15 billion. But with declining prices of steel products such as steel grind so hot (hot coils rolled), the import of raw materialsand increasing the potential can not be processed or accumulate in the warehouse. Thedownstream product prices at this time tended to decrease, while prices of raw materials tend to be stagnant product. The weakening of the export market it was estimated became the mainobstacle for the manufacture industry during 2009. Estimated during 2010, the export market began to be again restored, so as in 2009 will become the most difficult and defiant year for thesector of the national manufacture industry.
The policy of the fiscal Stimulus in 2009
The decreasing level of national inflation second quarter fiscal year 2009, and the BI policy toencourage a decrease in interest rates, is not immediately followed by economic growth that isstill hampered by lack of liquidity in the national banking sector, because it is still hamperedloans between banks. Currently, liquidity in the banking sector still accumulates the major banks,especially state-owned bank. Still worsen concerns the economy and rising bad debts, resulted ina national bank is very careful in lending, including to the other bank. Ultimately, small bankshave liquidity problems and are forced to increase interest rates in order to collect deposits of public funds. Thus, the interest rate the loan can not go down, even though BI has been lower interest rates gradually tribe. To expedite liquidity bank needed fiscal stimulus from thegovernment to help increase liquidity in the financial sector.In December 2008, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said the government stimulus packageto prepare the budget of the national budget in 2009 drawn from the remaining part of the budgetyear 2008. Minister of Finance explains the determination of industry and commodity, one basedon the creation of field labor. Menkeu says the government has prepared a fiscal incentive budgetof Rp 12.5 trillion in APBN 2009. Government sectors to set as many as thirty one stimuli will