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The weekly briefing, 4 November 2013

The weekly briefing, 4 November 2013

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Published by Open Briefing
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 4 November 2013).
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 4 November 2013).

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Published by: Open Briefing on Nov 04, 2013
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Open Briefing |
The weekly briefing
| 4 November 2013
 Political and security risk update
arnings over risk of genocide in !entral "frican #epublic$
"rgentine midterm elections bring about t%e end of &irc%ner family era$
 Asia and Pacific:
!%ina increases security in 'in(iang region follo)ing incident in *iananmen +,uare$
-ermany and .nited +tates to reac% a /+i yes intelligences%aring agreement
Middle East:
Obstacles emerge before proposed peace talks to end +yrias civil )ar$
Polar regions:
#ussian military buildup in "rctic accelerates$
Warnings over risk of genocide in entral African !epublic
+ectarian conflict in t%e !entral "frican #epublic 5!"#6 is at risk of escalating into genocide as armed groups increasingly incite !%ristian and 7uslim %atred against eac% ot%er )it%in t%e postcoup security vacuum$ 8n a briefing to t%e .N +ecurity !ouncil9 t%e +pecial "dviser on t%e Prevention of -enocide9 "dama :ieng9 %as )arned of killings under t%e guise of religion spiralling out of control in t%e country9 )%ic% %as been in turmoil since t%e nort%ern +eleka rebels ousted President ;ran<ois Bo=i=> in 7arc% 2013$ ;ollo)ing +eleka attacks on !%ristian c%urc%es9 increasing intercommunal violence is stirring up eisting tensions in t%e region$ +eleka attacks9 t%e creation of !%ristian selfdefence militias and increasing retaliations are rendering daily life and economic activities in t%e !"#9 )%ose most significant resources include uranium9 gold and diamonds9 virtually impossible$ Previous spillover of violence from conflicts in neig%bouring countries %ave also contributed to t%e current crisis$ 8ncreasing references to t%e #)andan genocide are putting political pressure on t%e international community to act$ ;renc% diplomats %ave suggested t%at ;rance9 )%ic% maintains a small force securing t%e countrys international airport9 )ould be ready to provide logistical support and increase its presence in t%e !"# to bet)een ?00 and 19200 troops if necessary$ @o)ever9 it seems unlikely t%at Paris )ill commit to anot%er ma(or intervention9 given continuing instability in 7ali$ *%e "frican .nionAs plan to deploy a 3900 strong peacekeeping mission is unlikely to be operationalised before 2014$ *%e +ecurity !ouncil approved a proposal by +ecretary-eneral Ban &i7oon to send an initial force of 2C0 military personnel to t%e capital9 Bangui9 )it% t%e capacity to increase t%e deployment to C0 troops$
Open Briefing |
#ther developments $enyan warplanes targeted a suspected al%&habaab training camp in &omalia's (insoor region)
 in retaliation for t%e attack on NairobiAs estgate 7all in +eptember$ 8t remains unclear %o) many )ere killed in t%e attack on 31 October9 as al+%abaab denies t%e strike$ 8n t%e same )eek9 action against al+%abaab included a &enyan drone strike killing t)o leading members of t%e organisation9 a .+ missile strike against a top operative and +omali government soldiers and "frican .nion troops assaulted an al+%abaab base near &olbiyo in lo)er Dubba province$
*ighting between Mo+ambican armed forces and !enamo has recommenced following the capture of the former rebel group,s main &athund-ira bush camp
 in t%e mountains of central -orongosa on 21 October$ *%is development %as led to t%e collapse of t%e 1EE2 peace agreement and a string of titfortat retaliations$ *%e most recent confrontation occurred on 2E October in t%e to)n of &arama(a Napome9 near t%e city of Nampula$ *%e recent eruption of violence poses anot%er conspicuous t%reat to stability in t%e region$
Two *rench -ournalists have been killed after being kidnapped in northern Mali on " .ovember/
 -%islaine :upont and !laude Ferlon of #adio ;rance 8nternationale )ere reporting from t%e nort%ern to)n of &idal )%en t%ey )ere abducted by gunmen$ *%ey )ere later found dead outside t%e to)n$ "ccording to reports9 ;renc% security forces )ere seen near t%e location of t%e attack9 %eig%tening tensions during t%e latest ;renc% operation in 7ali$
#n the radar
The 0. is warning of a severe food crisis in rural imbabwe)
 )it% more t%an t)o million likely to need food assistance$
*rench President *rancois 2ollande and &outh African President 3acob uma are to meet ne4t week
 for energy discussions9 including t%e development of +out% "frican nuclear po)er$
Tunisian President Mustapha 5en 3aafar has announced intentions to convene the 5ureau of the .ational onstituent Assembly ne4t week
in order to complete t%e democratic construction process$
Argentine midterm elections bring about the coming end of $irchner family era
Gast )eek9 "rgentines voted to elect ne) representatives for %alf of t%e parliament and a t%ird of t%e senate seats$ *%e results did not profoundly c%ange t%e political landscape and President !ristina ;ernande= de &irc%ners ;ront for Fictory 5;PF6 party consolidated its ma(ority in bot% c%ambers$ @o)ever9 it fared particularly badly in its traditional strong%olds$ *%is )as especially so in t%e Buenos "ires province 5)%ere 3?H of t%e countryAs voters live69 )%ere +ergio 7assas #ene)al ;ront easily defeated t%e ;PF candidate$ "s a result9 7assa appears as a potential leader of t%e Peronist opposition and is no) among t%e favourites to become president in 201C$
Open Briefing |
 *%e election results mean t%at ;ernande= no) %as no c%ance of presenting %erself for a t%ird presidential mandate$ *%is )ould %ave re,uired a t)o t%irds ma(ority in congress in order to ratify t%e necessary constitutional reform to lift t%e t)oterm limit$ "s suc%9 t%e 201C elections )ill put an end to 12 years of &irc%ner family rule$ :aniel +cioli9 president of t%e Dusticialist Party9 is likely to be c%osen by ;ernande= as t%e net leader of t%e &irc%nerist movement$ *%e ;PF ma(ority in bot% c%ambers )ill enable t%e ;ernande= administration to sustain its economic model$ 8n t%at sense9 little c%ange is epected in t%e net t)o years and %ig% inflation is likely to remain$ *%e upcoming t%reat for t%e ;PF )ill not9 t%erefore9 so muc% stem from t%e opposition itself but from potential dissidents )it%in t%e ;PF t%an mig%t seek to create ne) alliances a%ead of ;ernande=s departure$
#ther developments
7uito has reported that the olombian drug trafficking organisation 8os !astro-os is e4panding its activity in Ecuador,s northern region/
*%e group eperienced rapid gro)t% until 20129 )%en t%ree of its leaders surrendered or )ere captured$ +ince t%en it %as %ad no clear leaders%ip9 %as been dogged by internal divisions and %as lost about a fift% of its members$ @o)ever9 it is believed to use cuador as a drug trafficking transit country and t%ey %ave a strong presence in smeraldas on cuadors nort%ern coast$
riminal gangs in Me4ico attacked power plants and petrol stations in Michoacan &tate) leaving over 9") people without electricity/
8t is suspected t%at
t%e &nig%ts *emplar
drug cartel carried out t%e attacks in response to t%e recent organisation of selfdefence groups$ On 2 November9 t%ese civil militias marc%ed on "pat=ingIn9 a &nig%ts *emplar
strong%old9 but )ere attacked by unkno)n gunmen and snipers$
#n the radar
Protests are likely to accompany a general strike on ;%< .ovember in the southwestern department of Potos=) 5olivia/
&tudent protests are e4pected in ma-or cities across olombia on > .ovember/
*urther demonstrations e4pected in !io de 3aneiro) 5ra+il)
over various social grievances including t%e alleged ecessive use of force by t%e police during protests$
"sia and Pacific
hina increases security in ?in-iang region following incident in Tiananmen &@uare
+ecurity levels in 'in(iang autonomous region %ave been raised after police say t%e recent incident in *iananmen +,uare in central Bei(ing )as /carefully planned9 organised and premeditated$ On 2J October9 a car cras% and eplosion in t%e s,uare killed t)o bystanders and all t%ree passengersK t%e alleged attacker9 .smen @asan9 %is )ife and mot%er$ *%e attacker is t%oug%t to be an .ig%ur9 a 7uslim et%nic minority from t%e far )estern region of 'in(iang$ ;ive suspects9 also from 'in(iang )ere arrested soon after t%e incident$

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