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THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGEON PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUTS:WHO LEAVES SCHOOL AND WHY, AND HOWCOMMUNITIES ARE RESPONDING
From Portland, Oregon, to Boston and New York, and south to Jacksonville,communities across America are shining the spotlight on those students who drop out, or are at risk of dropping out, of high school. A changing economy coupled with the looming retirements of those in the baby-boomer generation have led community leaders to realize that they cannot afford to let large numbers of high school students – the workers of tomorrow – slip through their fingers.This shift in expectations and thoughtful new research has changed the  perspective on, and understanding of, America’s “dropout crisis.” It also has changed the way some public school systems and communities respond.This brief, the second in a series provided by Quality Education for 
 All
 ,an initiative of The Community Foundation in Jacksonville, looks at the recent research and the ways that some communities are addressing their 
dropout challenges. For communities such as Jacksonville that struggle with low graduation rates and high dropout rates, understanding the current 
 state of knowledge is critical to making wise choices for the future.
INTRODUCTION
Today, it is estimated that there are3 million young people between the
ages of 16 and 24 who are “disconnected”
from school and the workforce – theyare not in school and they are notlooking for a job.
1
Nationwide, 30% of all students fail to finish high school in four years,and in urban school districts, thepercentage jumps to 40% or higher.
2
Some experts argue that the numberand the proportion of non-graduateshave remained virtually unchanged since1980. The world, however, has not.A globally competitive marketplace,a knowledge-based economy and thedemands of advanced technology inalmost every field have raised the“knowledge-quotient” required forcitizens to find jobs that will enablethem to support healthy families. Those
who do not have the necessary education
credentials risk being left behind.
Adding to the challenge is the looming
retirement of millions of baby boomers.By 2010, 64 million American workers– four out of 10 – will be poisedfor retirement,
3
creating potential employee shortages in a host of fields.“The dropout problem hurts all of society, fueling poverty, exacerbatingconflicts in the community, and raisingpublic costs for health care, housing,law enforcement and social services,”write researchers in Boston.
4
In the last five years, these researchers
and others have intensified their focuson that cohort of young people whohave not completed – or are at risk of not completing – high school.As part of its Quality Educationfor
All 
initiative, The CommunityFoundation offers this overview of thecurrent state of knowledge on thedropout crisis, and insight into howsome communities are responding.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Certainly, dropouts are not a recentphenomenon. In the early 1970s, the“status dropout rate” – that is, theproportion of 16- through 24-year-oldsnot enrolled in high school and lackinga high school credential – was well above 30%, more than 10 pointshigher than in 2005.
5
But the economic landscape haschanged dramatically since 1970.Today, a basic high-school educationis, more than ever, a prerequisite forindividual economic success.In the 1970s, individuals withouta high-school education could findemployment in manufacturing andother industries, earning wages, withbenefits, sufficient to support a family.In today’s economy, many of thoselow-skill jobs have migrated offshore.Other jobs that formerly werelow-skill now require a level of skills andknowledge once primarily provided ina college-preparatory curriculum.
WHERE JACKSONVILLESTANDS
The Community Foundation launched its10-year Quality Education for
All 
initiativein 2005, with the goals of improving thegraduation rate, decreasing the dropout rateand improving academic outcomes for all Duval County public school students. Learning toFinish is the component of the initiative thatis focused on dropout and graduation rates.
RESEARCH
Learning to Finish began its work exploringthree high schools – Terry Parker, Englewoodand Forrest – and their feeder middle schools.This preliminary research indicated these schoolswere experiencing a significant loss of studentsbetween 9th and 10th grades, with only 50%of entering 9th graders graduating in four years(Class of 2006).To gain a deeper perspective, the Foundationhas commissioned research on studenttransitions at all Duval County high schoolsover a six-year period. That research isscheduled to be completed in fall 2008 withresults reported by year-end.
ACTIONS
Learning to Finish has worked with one of the three test high schools to develop strategiesaimed at better preparing students for thetransition from 8th to 9th grade. At Terry Parker,incoming 9th graders visit the school in thespring, attend a summer bridge program, and areconnected to either a student or teacher mentor.Preparing new students for the high-school environment and workload, and connectingthem to supportive teachers and older studentswill help them stay on track during 9th grade.
COMMUNITY CAPACITY
While The Community Foundation hasorganized and staffed this work to date, it alsohas led an effort to build a high-capacity local education foundation in Duval County that canassume long-term responsibility for sustainingdropout reform efforts. The Foundation andother local donors have raised $2 million to dateto build the governance structure, executiveleadership and staffing needed to build a stronglocal education fund that will guide educationreform in Jacksonville.
EDUCATIONBRIEFING #2 JULY 2008
 
“A young person today who hopes to becomean automotive mechanic must be prepared todo college level math,” said Lucretia Murphy,director of youth transitions for Jobs for theFuture. “There is no difference between college
prep and work prep in today’s knowledge economy.”
Murphy explains the evolution of attention tothe dropout crisis this way:The high school reform movement of theearly 1990s brought together “school” and“work” in new ways, with the recognition thatthe curriculum needed to be designed not justfor general education purposes but to preparestudents for both jobs
and 
higher education.This push generated questions aboutstandards – if schools are to prepare studentsfor work, what standards does the workplacerequire? What do students need to know to beready for college? Both employers and highereducation weighed in, often criticizing highschools for producing graduates who couldnot write, compute or think critically.It was in this climate that the standardsmovement gained
momentum
, with statesestablishing achievement standards and thefederal government requiring reports of progresstoward meeting those standards. Attentionfocused on how many students were achievingstandards and, inevitably, how many were not.High school reform focused on
raising 
standards. With the spotlight on high schools,researchers also were able to call attention tothe young people not touched by these reforms,because they were leaving high school.This research called the question on thedual agenda for high school reform: raisingstandards
and 
raising the graduation rates.“High school reform traditionally has beenabout those who graduated,” Murphy said. “Notany more. High school reform today is about
graduating
more 
students
and 
ensuring graduates
are prepared for jobs and higher education.”
THE NEW MATH
Not only are communities and statesmore focused on the challenge of graduating students, they are payingmore attention to methods of calculatinggraduation and dropout rates.In 2005, the National GovernorsAssociation highlighted the need forconsistent data collection and reportingmethods and urged states to begincalculating a “standard four-year, adjustedcohort graduation rate.” All 50 statesagreed to the proposal. Consequently,school districts now look at high school as a progression that begins in 9th gradeand concludes, hopefully, four years laterat the end of 12th grade. That requirescalculating graduation and dropout ratesfrom a 9th-grade baseline.It has been the use of this broaderperspective, in many respects, that hasyielded some of the greatest insights intohow and when schools lose students.
THE DROPOUT ‘PATH’
Historically, dropping out was thoughtof as an “event” – a particular point in theindividual’s educational career where she orhe chose to stop attending school.In fact, recent research has showndropping out to be more of a gradual process, where the student struggles,disengages, eventually drops out, and maydrop back in before dropping out again.Moreover, research shows that the factorsthat drive a student down this path beginearly – in middle school or before.Robert Balfanz is a research scientist atthe Center for Social Organization of Schoolsat Johns Hopkins University who has studiedand written extensively on the dropout crisisin America’s schools.“The majority of dropouts in [study] citiesleave high school with few credits becausethey failed the majority of their classes…[Low graduation rates] are driven bystudents who enter high school poorlyprepared for success and rarely or barelymake it out of the 9th grade. Theydisengage from school, attend infrequently,fail too many courses to be promoted to the10th grade, try again with no better results,and ultimately drop out of school. Our datashow that 20-40% of students in thesecities repeat the 9th grade but that only10-15% of repeaters go on to graduate.”
6
This 9th-grade crisis has its roots inearly adolescence, Balfanz reports.“Many students begin to fall off thegraduation track at the start of adolescence.We have been able to identify over half of a major district’s future dropouts as earlyas the 6th grade by looking at just fourvariables commonly measured in schools –attendance, behavior, and course failure inmath and English. Students with any oneof these risk factors had less than a 20%chance ofgraduating within five years of entering 9th grade.“Hence, one reason that the 9th gradefinishes off so many students is that manyof them have already been struggling anddisengaging for three years or more beforeentering high school.”
7
This reseach, which has been validatedby others in multiple communities, issignificant in the way it changes theconversation for educators and communities.Previously, the “profile” of a dropout wasdefined by race, ethnicity, poverty or familycircumstances – factors over which educatorshave no influence. By identifying indicatorsthat educators can influence – literacy,attendance, discipline – educators havenew opportunities for intervention.
 
WHO DROPS OUT 
While academic and behavioral indicatorsmay predict a student’s likelihood of droppingout, the common characteristics of thosewho drop out add a revealing dimension tothe picture and highlight the disparities ineducational opportunity. Understanding thesedisparities can help educators and communitiesidentify where to focus resources.According to many researchers, poverty isclosely associated with low graduation ratesand high dropout rates.“There is a near perfect linear relationshipbetween a high school’s poverty level and itstendency to lose large numbers of studentsbetween 9th and 12th grades,” reports Balfanz.
8
In Boston, 55% of young dropouts weremembers of families earning 200% or lessof the federal poverty level.
9
Jobs for the Future reports that“socioeconomic status – which is based onparents’ income and education – rather thanrace is the key indicator for dropping out.Black and Hispanic youth are no more likely todrop out of high school than their white peersof similar family income and education.”
10
However, researchers note that minorityyouth are over-represented in low-incomeschools and, consequently, in the populationof students who have dropped out.Related to this is the finding that studentsin large urban school districts are significantlyless likely to graduate than those attendingsuburban community school districts.Christopher B. Swanson, director of theEditorial Projects in Education Research Center,examined the graduation rates of the 50 largestmetropolitan areas in the nation, looking bothat the urban school districts and the suburbanschool districts in each metro area. He foundgraduation rates of 58% in the urban
school districts, compared with 75% in thenearby
suburban communities.
11
There also are gender disparities amongdropouts. Research by Boston’s YouthTransitions Task Force shows that malestend to drop out more than females.In 2000, there were 111 males for every100 females in Boston Public Schools’ 9thgrades. In that same cohort of studentsfour years later, the ratio had dropped to79 males for every 100 females.
12
That trend held across racial and ethnicgroups, with black, Latino, white and Asianmales all dropping out at rates higher thantheir female counterparts.The Boston reseachers also found thatstudents facing unusual challenges – juvenile offenders, those requiring special education, pregnant or parenting women,or children in foster care, for example –were at greater risk of dropping out.
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COMMUNITY RESPONSES
More than a dozen cities across thecountry are involved in major initiatives to
address the dropout crisis in their communities.
They range from metropolitan areas, suchas Boston, New York and Philadelphia, tosmaller cities, such as Gary, Indiana, Mobile,Alabama and Des Moines, Iowa. (Duval County Public Schools, with 130,000students, is smaller than systems in NewYork and Philadelphia but larger than thosein Boston, Portland and smaller cities.)Most of these community initiatives arenew, driven by research that has beenconducted in the past three to five years.Consequently, outcomes, where they areavailable, tend to be preliminary.Nonetheless, there are lessons emergingabout what helps reforms gain traction in acommunity, according to Lucretia Murphy.
»
It is important that communities havea neutral convener – a high-capacityorganization with a history of movingan agenda, that can connect multipleconstituencies and play the role of catalyst.
»
School systems must be fully engaged;reform cannot be driven solely fromoutside the system.
»
That said, ownership of reform mustextend beyond the school district andthe superintendent; the communitymust share ownership.
THE COST OF DROPOUTS
Dropping out of high school has multiple consequences for young people,their families and the communities in which they live. Northeastern University’sCenter for Labor Market Studies looked at Massachusetts and found that dropouts:
»
Are less likely to work and, when they work, earn less than graduates.
»
Report poorer health and have shorter life expectancy.
»
Are less likely to have health insurance and more likely to rely onMedicaid or Medicare.
»
Are more likely to depend on public assistance, both cash and in-kind.
»
Are more likely to be incarcerated.
»
Are less likely to marry and more likely to become single parents.
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