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Thursday, August 06, 2009
 
DailyTradingStance
 
Theme Comment
US ADP showing a considerable improvement, but still horrible. ISM Non-Manufacturing out at 46.4 vs. 48 expected
 –
 still showing contraction in 8 out of 10 sectors = still recession.E-Z Retail Sales showing YoY out at -2.4%. Watch out for German Factory Orders today.S&P500 came back strongly after a sell-off intraday caused by the weak ISM figure. 1014 still important resistancelikely to be tested this week.EURUSD important resistance at 1.4447. A break could lead to 1.46 in a fairly short time, which would be supportivefor gold, silver and oil.
Economic Data Releases
Country Time (GMT) Name Expectation Prior CommentGE 10:00 Factory Orders MoM (JUN) 0.6% 4.4%UK/EC 11:00/11:45 BOE / ECB Announces Rates 0.5%/1.0% 0.5%/1.0%US 12:30 Initial / Continuing Jobless Claims 580K/6250K 584K/9197KFX Daily stance CommentEURUSD 0/+ Buy at the break of 1.4447 and target 1.4560. Stop below 1.44.EURJPY 0 Likely ranging 136.0-137.50.USDJPY 0/+Still prefer buying dips though can retrace as low as 94.50-65. Target 95.80-90.GBPUSD 0 Ranging around 1.70. Barrier res reported at 1.7050, n/term suppt 1.6955.AUDUSD 0 Look to trade a 0.8385-0.8475 range.FX-Options Comment
EURUSD
Vols bid throughout the curve and risk reversals are bid along with it. Market all looking tobuy EUR calls 1w out to 3mth. Expect a push higher in spot.
EURCHF
Options were paid with strong interests to buy EUR calls yesterday. With a busy weekahead, gamma remains bid. Expect spot to move towards 1.54
USDJPY
Seeing good demand for 1m 100 strikes with single buyer paying 1 yard yesterday. Riskreversals are also softer signaling consensus that spot should trade firmer.Equities Daily stance Comment
DAX
0/- Sell at the break of 5330 targeting 5280. S/L above 5365.
FTSE
0/- Sell at the break of 4637 targeting 4595. S/L above 4655.
S&P500
0/- Sell at the break of 1000 targeting 985. S/L above 1007.
Nasdaq
0/- Range bound. Sell at the break of 1600 targeting 1585. S/L above 1610.
Dow Jones
0/- Sell at the break of 9200 targeting 9100. S/L above 9250.Commodities Daily Stance CommentGold 0/+ Buy on dips towards 960 and target 970. Stop below 956.Silver 0/+ Buy at the bread of 14.63 and target 14.90. Stop below 14.50.Oil 0/+ Buy at the break of 72.20 and target 73.80. Stop below 71.50.
Earnings Releases
CountryTime (GMT)Name EPS exp. EPS prior CommentDE 09:00 Novo Nordisk4.1243.995GB 14:30 Thomson Reuters 0.430 0.450
 
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-0,500,511,522,5327-mar27-maj27-jul27-sep27-nov27-jan27-mar27-maj27-jul
#N/A Requesting Data...
#N/ARequesting Data...
 
40608010012014007-08-2008 07-10-2008 07-12-2008 07-02-2009 07-04-2009 07-06-2009
Top 100 Global Stocks CDS Index
Saxo CDS Index
 
05101520253035 jul-07sep-07nov-07jan-08mar-08maj-08jul-08sep-08nov-08jan-09mar-09maj-09jul-09
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1WEUR-USD OPT VOL 1MEUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y
 
01234567dec-07mar-08jun-08sep-08dec-08mar-09jun-09
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
Moody BAA -US GenericGovt 30 Year YieldMoody AAA -US GenericGovt30Year Yield
 
024681012okt-08 nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads
GDMAHungarian-German CzechRepublic -German Poland-German
 
0102030405060 jan-09feb-09mar-09apr-09maj-09jun-09jul-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
CBOE SPXVOLATILITY INDX
 
DailyTradingStance
 
Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the perceiveddefault risk in a company.
Now at 54.
 Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still
showing tight corporate debtmarkets.
 The VIX Index is
edging lower again, now below 25.
 USD breakeven 10 Year
 –
an expression for measuring inflationexpectations.
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