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Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts Be Anticipated?

Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts Be Anticipated?

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Published by Terminal X
TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT (SMA) MULTI-AGENCY/MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPERS IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD
TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT (SMA) MULTI-AGENCY/MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPERS IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD

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Published by: Terminal X on Nov 06, 2013
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TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT (SMA) MULTI-AGENCY/MULTI-DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPERS IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD
Anticipating Rare Events: Can Acts of Terror, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction or Other High Profile Acts Be Anticipated?
 A Scientific Perspective on Problems, Pitfalls  and Prospective Solutions
November 2008
The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official  policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated.
Contributing Authors:
Gary Ackerman (U MD START), Renee Agress (Detica), Beth Ahern (MITRE), Fred Ambrose (USG), Victor Asal (SUNY, Albany), Elisa Bienenstock (NSI), Alan Brothers (PNNL), Hriar Cabayan (RRTO), Bradley Clark (TAS), Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI), Sarah Beebe (PAL), Eric Bonabeau (Icosystem), Sarah Canna (NSI), Jeffrey Cares (Alidade), Alan Christianson (Detica), Frank Connors (DTRA), Lee Cronk (Rutgers), Laurie Fenstermacher (AFRL), Daniel Flynn (ODNI), Nic Grauer (AFRL), Bud Hay (ret), Carl Hunt (DTI), Gary Jackson (SAIC), Kathleen Kiernan (RRTO), Lawrence Kuznar (NSI), Kenneth Long (IPFW), Elizabeth Manak (PAL), Donna Mayo (PA Consulting), Brian Nichols (Detica), Sue Numrich (IDA), Jennifer O’Connor (DHS), John Patterson (Detica), Krishna Pattipati (U Conn), Stacy Lovell Pfautz (NSI), Randolph Pherson (PAL), Terry Pierce (DHS/USAFA), CAPT Brett Pierson (Joint Staff J8), Bob Popp (NSI), David C. Porter (Detica), Karl Rethemeyer (SUNY, Albany), Tom Rieger (Gallup Consulting), Maj Joseph Rupp (Joint Staff J3), David Schum (GMU), Alan Schwartz (PAL), Ritu Sharma (PA Consulting), Steven Shellman (William and Mary, SAE), Sandy Thompson (PNNL), Pam Toman (NSI), David Vona (NSI), Paul Whitney (PNNL), and Katherine Wolf (PNNL) Coordinated and edited by: Nancy Chesser (DTI) – Nancy.Chesser@js.pentagon.mil
 
White Paper: Anticipating “Rare Events”
Table of Contents
Preface ................................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary (Hriar Cabayan)..............................................................................................1 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................11 1.1. WMD Terrorism and the Perils of Prediction (Gary Ackerman)................................11 2. Perspectives on Rare Events..................................................................................................17 2.1. Anthropological Perspectives On Rare Event Prediction (Larry Kuznar)...................17 2.2. Philosophical and Epistemological Considerations (Ken Long).................................24 2.3. Law Enforcement (Carl Hunt, Kathleen Kiernan).......................................................31 2.4. Evolutionary Theory and the Prediction of Rare Events (Lee Cronk).........................37 2.5. Military Perspective (Joseph Rupp).............................................................................43 3. Limitations and Common Pitfalls..........................................................................................50 3.1. Cognitive Pitfalls (Sarah Beebe, Randy Pherson).......................................................50 3.2. Data Sharing: Lessons Learned from Two Previous Studies (Sue Numrich).............55 3.3. Black Swans (Carl Hunt).............................................................................................60 4. Remedies and Strategies........................................................................................................65 4.1. Overview of Front End and Visualization Solution Space (Laurie Fenstermacher,  Nic Grauer)..................................................................................................................65 4.2. Overview of Back End Solution Space (Bob Popp, Sarah Canna)..............................70 4.3. Quantitative Social Science Models (Bob Popp, Stacy Lovell-Pfautz).......................76 4.4. An Integrated Statistical Modeling Approach for Predicting Rare Events: Statistical Analysis of WMD Terrorism (Larry Kuznar, Victor Asal, Karl Rethemeyer, Krishna Pattipati, Robert Popp, Steven Shellman).................................81 4.5. Stability and Different Types of Radicalism (Tom Rieger).........................................88 4.6. The Accurate Anticipation of Rare Human-Driven Events: An ABA/SME Hybrid (Gary Jackson).............................................................................................................92 4.7. Bayesian Assessments of Likelihood, Consequence and Risk for Comparing Scenarios (Sandy Thompson, Paul Whitney, Katherine Wolf, Alan Brothers)...........99 4.8. Bounding a Known Unknown: The Role of Decision Theory in Rare Events Analysis (Allison Astorino-Courtois, David Vona)..................................................105 4.9. Social Network Analysis for Detecting the Web of Rare Event Planning and Preparation (Elisa Bienenstock, Pam Toman)...........................................................110 4.10. System Dynamics and Systems Thinking: Anticipation versus Preparation (Ritu Sharma, Donna Mayo and CAPT Brett Pierson)..............................................116 4.11. Complexity-Based Reasoning (Carl Hunt, David Schum)........................................122 i
 
White Paper: Anticipating “Rare Events” 4.12. Augmented Paranoia (Eric Bonabeau).......................................................................129 4.13. Unconventional Red Teaming (Fred Ambrose, Beth Ahern)....................................136 4.14. Strategic Analytic Gaming (Dan Flynn)....................................................................140 4.15. Co-evolutionary Gaming for Uncertain Futures (Jeff Cares)....................................145 4.16. Gaming from An Operational Perspective (Bud Hay)...............................................152 4.17. Knowledge Extraction (Sue Numrich).......................................................................156 4.18. Open Source Methods to Anticipate WMD Activities (Frank Connors, Brad Clark).................................................................................................................161 4.19. The Role of ACH and Other Structured Analytic Techniques (Randy Pherson, Alan Schwartz, Elizabeth Manak).............................................................................165 4.20. The Case for Use of a Multi-Method Scientific Approach for Anticipating a Rare Event (Renee Agress, Alan Christianson, Brian Nichols, John Patterson, David Porter)..............................................................................................................171 4.21. Instantiating Federated Strategies: Command and Control through the Nexus Federated Collaboration Environment and the Flexible Distributed Control Mission Fabric (Carl Hunt, Terry Pierce)..................................................................178 4.22. Epilogue (Jennifer O’Connor)...................................................................................189 Appendix A. Tabletop Exercise (TTX) on Bio-Terrorism........................................................193 Appendix B. Pearl Harbor Estimate (Harold Ford)...................................................................197 Appendix C. Acronyms.............................................................................................................198 ii

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