DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ONTRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHERIMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
U.S.Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.05 August 2009Americas/United States
Equity Research
Homebuilding / MARKET WEIGHT
Monthly Survey of Real EstateAgents
CHANNEL CHECK
Further Stabilization in Hard-Hit Markets, LowPrice Points
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Traffic steady; strongest in beaten-down markets.
Our Monthly Survey ofReal Estate Agents pointed to steady and healthy traffic in July with buyerscontinuing to aggressively seek out foreclosures. Our buyer traffic index wassteady at 43.4 in July from 43.1 in June. The foreclosure heavy markets sawthe greatest amount of traffic, as investors seek out foreclosure bargains.
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Strength in Arizona, California, Florida, and Washington, D.C.
The“foreclosure four” of Ft Myers, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Riverside-SanBernardino (Inland Empire)
all saw strong traffic with as significant investordemand supports foreclosure sales activity (agents indicate that as much as50% of sales are to investors in these areas). In these markets our trafficindex ranged from a low of 58 in Phoenix to a high of 70 in Ft Myers, and allof these markets have seen high levels of traffic through Spring and Summeras investors seek foreclosure bargains. In Washington, D.C. (NVR and TOL),our traffic slipped to 60 from 63, but has been above agents expectations(readings above 50) for each month since March.
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Weakness in Atlanta, Chicago, and Texas markets.
Agents notedweakness in Atlanta with traffic dropping down to a low level of 22 aftershowing improvement over the past two months. Chicago remained constantat 29, continuing the weak trends seen in that market. Traffic in the Texasmarkets was again below expectations – Austin offered the best trends withtraffic up slightly to 34 in July from 28 in June, but we saw weakness inDallas (traffic dropped to 38 from 41 in June), Houston (traffic remainedweak at 23, consistent with 22 in June), and San Antonio saw a tough month(traffic fell to 10 from 33).
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Pricing nearing a bottom in many markets on low-end homes.
Our priceindex increased another 2.7 points in July to 33.6, the highest level we haveseen in several years. Agents indicated rising prices over the past 30 days inFt. Myers, Phoenix, and Riverside-San Bernardino with several othermarkets showing near-stable prices. Agents saw the weakest pricing trendsin Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Jacksonville, and New York.
Research AnalystsDaniel Oppenheim, CFA
212 325 5726dan.oppenheim@credit-suisse.com
Michael Dahl
212 325 5882michael.dahl@credit-suisse.com
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