Economic growth in emerging East Asia was likely
stronger than expected in the rst half of 2007,
buoyed by strong consumption growth and external
demand, and the rapid 11.5% growth in gross domestic product in the PRC.
Combined gross domestic product (GDP) in the nine largest economies
grew by over 8.1% in the rst quarter of 2007 (Q1), marginally lower than 8.2% in 2006, supported by strong
consumption growth and external demand (Figure 1).
In the rst half of 2007, the People's Republic of China's (PRC) economy grew by 11.5%. In the year to March 2007, GDP growth was 5.6% in the four middle-income countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-4), above 2006 levels. However, the four newly industrialized economies (NIEs)—Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea (Korea); Singapore; and Taipei,China—moderated in Q1, with GDP growth slowing to 4.5%, from 5.4% in 2006.Excluding the PRC, domestic demand in the region weakened
slightly but remained solid in Q1 due to somewhat slower investment, while private consumption was stronger than in
2006, growing by 4.0% (Figure 2). The external sector continued
to contribute strongly to the expansion as resilient consumption
in the United States (US) and a strong recovery in Europe
underpinned export demand.
Early data suggest the region continued robust growth in the second quarter of 2007 (Q2), with industrial production in several economies looking strong (Figure 3). PRC industrial production grew faster in Q2 than the Q1 average, while industry in Korea and
Indonesia maintained last year’s strong momentum. Industrial
growth in Thailand and Malaysia slowed, and the decline in the Philippines slowed in April. Second-quarter retail sales in the region also stayed healthy (Figure 4).
The nine largest emerging economies are People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Taipei,China; and Thailand.
Unless otherwise noted, all growth gures are year-on-year (y-o-y).
Emerging East Asia—A Regional Economic
Economic Performance in the First Half of 2007
126.96.36.199.97.9188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.60246810122003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1Emerging East AsiaChina, People’s Rep. of ASEAN-4NIEs
Regional GDP Growth
Weighted by gross national income (atlas method, current $).
Aggregates do not include Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, or Viet Nam.Source: OREI staff calculations based on national sources.
Contributions to Regional
Regional = ASEAN-4 + NIEs.Source: OREI staff calculations based on CEIC data.
220.127.116.11.0 2.92.3 18.104.22.168 1.00.80.80.61.1-0.5-0.95.44.87.46.24.4-1012345678Statistical DiscrepancyNet ExportsInvestmentConsumptionGDP22.214.171.124.22.2 1.8-0.31.8