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Abq Cc7 Nov Race 2013

Abq Cc7 Nov Race 2013

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Published by: jmonahan8289 on Nov 07, 2013
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05/18/2015

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BWD GLOBAL
NOV. 6, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: NOV. 6
TH
 ABQ CC7 SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS
METHODOLOGY
Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 528 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from the 7
th
 City Council District in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that
responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other
established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.2% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey.
TOP LINE:
Question: In the race for City Councillor in your area, who would you support between Diane Gibson and  Janice Arnold-Jones?
 
GIBSON 47.7%
 
ARNOLD-JONES 42.0%
 
UNDEC 10.4% Margin of Error: 10.4% 528 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque
Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Mo
nahan’ 
s political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor
Berry’s public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berry’s win and t 
he upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in  Albuquerque City Counil District 5. This is the 2
nd 
 survey Donisthorpe has conducted in this district this Fall.
 
ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
 
THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
: Democratic Challenger Diane Gibson vaulted into the lead in the 7
th
 District race based upon the strong support of DEM voters throughout the district. Gibson definitely benefits from the District
’s opposition to the proposed ballot referendum
on abortion, which trails by almost 20 points in the district. Gibson is pulling almost 75% of DEM voters, which provide an edge in registration and turnout in this election. Incumbent Councillor Janice Arnold-Jones, the Republican leads among REP (77-14) and INDP (52-34) voters, but that is not enough to put her into the lead on this survey. Councillor Arnold-Jones has lost considerable DEM support since our September survey, moving from 29% to 15% in the current survey. Arnold-Jones had a name-identification advantage in the last election that has been neutralized somewhat by the Gibson campaign forces, who secured the support of Matthew Biggs (who came in 3
rd
 on Oct. 8
th
) and the endorsement of Senators Udall and Heinrich and Congresswoman Lujan-Grisham. Almost 10% of the voters remain undecided and Arnold-Jones faces an uphill battle to victory needing to expand the pool of Republican and Independent voters to win on election day.
 

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