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Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies in Utah:An Economic and Policy Analysis
Prepared for:The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Prepared by:The Utah Department of Natural ResourcesOffice of Energy and Resource Planning
 
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .....................................................ES-1
I. Background ................................................ES-1Table 1. Fossil Fuel GHG Emissions Baseline in Tons CO2, 1990-2010 ......ES-1II. Major Findings ................................................ES-1A. Baseline ................................................ES-1Figure 1. Fossil Fuel GHG Emissions Baseline 1990-2010 ............. ES-2B. Mitigation Strategies............................................ES-2Table 2. GHG Cost and Reduction - Summary by Sector ..............ES-3Table 3. Fossil Fuel Mitigation Strategies Ranked By Feasible $/ton .....ES-3Figure 2. Cost vs. Reduction
S
Feasible ............................ES-4Figure 3. Cost vs. Reduction
S
Potential ...........................ES-5C. Economic Impact ...............................................ES-6Table 4. Estimated Average Annual Changes in Earnings and Employment ES-6
Part One: Introduction ..................................................... 1-1
I. Background ................................................. 1-1II. Scope of Research ................................................. 1-2III. Methodology 1-2IV. Report Structure ................................................. 1-4
Part Two: The Greenhouse Effect and Global Initiatives ......................... 2-1
I. Background and State of the Science ................................... 2-1A.Climate and Weather in Context: A History of Climate Change .......... 2-1Figure 2-1. Northern Hemisphere Temperature 1400 -1995 ............. 2-2Figure 2-2. Northern Hemisphere temperature , 1902 -1995 ............. 2-3B. The Science of the Greenhouse Effect .............................. 2-3II. International Treaties................................................. 2-4A. Framework Convention on Climate Change .......................... 2-4B. Kyoto Protocol ................................................. 2-4III. The International Science Community .................................. 2-6
Part Three: Utah Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Mitigation Strategies .... 3-1
I.Phase I: The Utah Greenhouse Gas Inventory
............................... 3-1A. Carbon Dioxide................................................... 3-1B. Methane ...................................................... 3-2C. Nitrous Oxide.................................................... 3-2D. Utah Forests ..................................................... 3-2
II. Goal of the Utah Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Plan
.......................... 3-3
 
III. Criteria for Selection of Mitigation Strategies
.............................. 3-3
IV. Part Four: Utah Energy Baseline ......................................... 4-1
I.Overview of Utah Total Energy Use and GHG ........................... 4-1A. Utah Energy Use by Fuel and Sector ............................... 4-1Table 4-1. Carbon Content of Fossil Fuels ........................... 4-1B. Methodology 4-1Table 4-2. Utah CO
2
Emissions by Energy Source, Excluding Elec. Exports ($) ............................. 4-2Table 4-3. Utah CO
2
Emissions by Energy Source, Excluding Elec. Exports (%)............................. 4-2Table 4-4. Average Annual Growth Rate in CO
2
Emissions,  by Energy Source ..................................... 4-3Table 4-5. Utah CO
2
Emissions  by Energy Source and End-Use Sector in 1998 .............. 4-3Table 4-6. Utah CO
2
Emissions  by Energy Source and End-Use Sector in 1998 .............. 4-3Table 4-7. Utah Residential Electricity Use .......................... 4-4C.The Matrix of Total Energy Use and CO
2
Emissions...................4-4Utah Population Growth ......................................... 4-4II. The Utah Residential Sector and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ................ 4-5A. Overview of Aggregate Trends....................................4-5Table 4-8. Utah Residential Natural Gas Use......................... 4-5B.Baseline Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the 1990s ..................... 4-6Table 4-9. Utah Residential CO
2
Emissions .......................... 4-6Table 4-10. Utah Residential CO
2
Emissions as a percent ............... 4-6Table 4-11. Annual Growth in Utah Residential CO
2
Emissions .......... 4-6C.The Matrix of Residential Sector Energy by End Use .................. 4-7Table 4-12. Utah Residential CO
2
Emissions in 1998 .................. 4-7Table 4-13. Utah Residential CO
2
Emissions in 1998 as a percent ........ 4-7III. Utah Commercial Sector Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ......... 4-8A.Overview of Aggregate Trends....................................4-8Table 4-14. Utah Commercial Electricity Use ........................4-8Table 4-15. Utah Commercial Natural Gas Use ....................... 4-8Table 4-16. Utah Commercial CO
2
Emissions ........................4-9Table 4-17. Utah Commercial CO
2
Emissions as a percent .............. 4-9B.Baseline Utah Commercial Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the 1990s . 4-9Table 4-18.Annual Growth in Utah CO
2
Emissions ................... 4-9Table 4-19. Utah Commercial CO
2
Emissions in 1998 ................. 4-9Table 4-20. Utah Commercial CO
2
Emissions in 1998 as a percent ...... 4-10The Utah Commercial Sector and Tourism ......................... 4-10
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