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The weekly briefing, 18 November 2013

The weekly briefing, 18 November 2013

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Published by Open Briefing
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 18 November 2013).
Political and security risk update from Open Briefing (United Kingdom, 18 November 2013).

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Published by: Open Briefing on Nov 18, 2013
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Open Briefing |
1
 
The weekly briefing
| 18 November 2013
 Political and security risk updates
Africa:
tate of emergency declared in !ibyan capital as do"ens killed in clas# $it# militia%
 Americas:
&ene"uelan President Nicol's (aduro cracks do$n on private businesses in supposed economic $ar%
 Asia and Pacific:
)ambia severs diplomatic ties $it# *ai$an%
 Europe:
Polis# far+rig#t groups turn violent during national independence day marc#%
 Middle East:
,onfidence in t#e )eneva talks bet$een t#e P-.1 and /ran appears to be fading%
 Polar regions:
 Navy submarine presence in t#e rctic eopardised by budget cuts%
 
frica
State of emergency declared in Libyan capital as doens killed in clash with militia
 8+#our state of emergency $as declared in t#e !ibyan capital on 14 November follo$ing clas#es in $#ic# several do"ens $ere killed and #undreds inured% /n one of t#e $orst outbreaks of fig#ting since t#e overt#ro$ of former dictator (uammar )addafi5 members of a militia from (israta opened fire on around -00 protesters $#o #ad gat#ered outside t#e group6s #ead7uarters demanding t#eir $it#dra$al on 1- November% ig#ting intensified t#roug#out t#e nig#t5 $it# !ibyan security forces trying to seal off streets around t#e incident in t#e )#arg#ur district% On 14 November5 furt#er clas#es occurred bet$een rival gunmen at c#eckpoints in *aoura5 east of *ripoli5 set up to prevent more militia fig#ters from entering t#e city% *#e protests against t#e militia6s presence in *ripoli $ere backed by imams at riday prayers as $ell as by t#e mufti5 t#e country6s #ig#est religious aut#ority% ince t#e previous $eek5 $it# t#e (israta militia entering t#e capital5 street fig#ting #as reac#ed t#e most serious levels since t#e revolution% truggling to contain t#e situation5 t#e !ibyan government #as demanded t#e $it#dra$al of all militias from *ripoli to ensure a minimum of normal economic activity% ollo$ing t#e latest clas#es5 most businesses remained closed% tark divisions in !ibyan society and t#e military6s $eakness in attempts to control t#e local po$er centres t#at #ave remained since t#e uprising #ave meant t#at militias #ave been able to #old key points for mont#s5 blocking oil e9ports5 !ibya6s main source of income%
 
Open Briefing |
!
 ailure to evict militia fig#ters from *ripoli $ould furt#er $eaken t#e position of t#e !ibyan aut#orities under Prime (inister li :eidan% *oget#er $it# t#e precarious economic situation5 t#is seriously t#reatens #opes for t#e country6s transformation% (oreover5 t#ere is increasing concern about a spread of instability to neig#bouring countries due to t#e seemingly unrestrained armed groups and overflo$ of $eapons% ;arlier t#is $eek5 rance announced it $as considering increasing aid and counterterrorism training to !ibya to prevent a spill over of militancy across t#e borders%
"ther de#elopments The $% Security &ouncil has re'ected a resolution
 
proposed by African states( led by )wanda( to suspend the trial of *enyan President $huru *enyatta
 and #is deputy president5 <illiam =uto5 at t#e /nternational ,riminal ,ourt for one year% ;ig#t members abstained from t#e vote on 1- November5 ensuring t#e resolution fell belo$ t#e number needed to pass% >enyatta and =uto are accused of crimes against #umanity follo$ing t#e 200? elections5 $#en violent repression killed more t#an one t#ousand people% (ean$#ile5 a poll released on 1 November found t#at a maority of >enyans $ere in favour of >enyatta standing trial in *#e @ague% *#e trial $ill commence in ebruary 201%
+oko ,aram has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of a -rench priest in northern &ameroon(
 
close to the %igerian border.
 )eorges &andenbeusc# $as sei"ed on 13 November5 only days after t#e  government designated Boko @aram5 as $ell as splinter group nsaru5 as terrorist organisations% Bot# groups #ave been blamed for increasingly violent attacks across Nigeria5 $it# Boko @aram carrying out raids in villages in t#e Borno region in t#e early #ours of 1- November% rance issued a $arning for citi"ens in ,ameroon5 amid concerns t#at &andenbeusc# #as been taken across t#e border to Nigeria%
"n the radar
 
Ethiopia will repatriate nationals from Saudi Arabia
 follo$ing clas#es $it# security forces and allegations of torture%
 
The semi/autonomous Somali region of Puntland
 
is waiting for international aid
 after cyclone kills #undreds%
 
0uinean opposition parties ha#e called for protests
 after t#e country6s upreme ,ourt reected complaints against election results%
 
The campaign for parliamentary elections in Mauritania( boycotted by opposition parties( enters final week
before first round of elections%
 
Morocco hopes to attract foreign in#estors at )abat summit
from 1A November%
mericas
eneuelan President %icol2s Maduro cracks down on pri#ate businesses in supposed economic war
/n a public speec# on 1- November5 &ene"uelan President Nicol's (aduro revealed t#e imprisonment of over 100 businessmen since last $eekend% (entioned for t#e first time a mont# ago5 in #is economic $arC (aduro blames t#e private sector for t#e countryCs economic ills% @e argues t#at t#e price of basic goods #as been artificially inflated by t#ose taking advantage of t#e difference bet$een t#e official and black market values of t#e dollar compared to t#e &ene"uelan bolivar% Dear+on+year inflation is at -E in &ene"uela5 $it# a 20E s#ortage of basic goods5 according to figures from t#e ,entral Bank of &ene"uela%
 
Open Briefing |
3
 (aduroCs economic $ar pledges to set legal limits on businessesC profit margins% !ast $eekend5 aut#orities enforced a -0+40E discount on appliances in stores of t#e capital5 ,aracas% *#e enforced measures led to instances of riots and looting in some s#ops% ut#orities #ave t#reatened t#at regular inspections $ill take place and arrests $ill be made of s#op o$ners t#at do not comply $it# t#e governmentCs price controls% Price controls are e9pected to be e9panded to all consumer goods% )oods in #ig# demand5 suc# as s#oes5 clot#ing and car parts5 $ill be privileged targets% Beyond t#e tec#nical implications of t#e economic $ar5 t#e presidentCs stance demonstrates t#e victory of radicals over moderate $it#in (aduroCs nited ocialist Party of &ene"uela FP&G% s suc#5 t#e radicalisation of t#e Bolivarian socialist model $it# its associated distorted economic policies is likely to prevail in t#e near future%
"ther de#elopments The &olombian go#ernment ha#e unco#ered a )e#olutionary Armed -orces of &olombia 4-A)&5 plot to assassinate former president Al#aro $ribe.
*#e revelation came about a $eek after a landmark agreement $as reac#ed bet$een =, and t#e ,olombian government% ribe $as president from 2002 to 2010 and took a #ardline approac# to t#e =, issue% @e is t#e principal opponent of t#e current peace talks%
"n 16 %o#ember( an armed ci#ilian militia group seied Tancitaro city hall in the State of Michoacan( Me7ico.
*#e event occurred after a confrontation $it# t#e >nig#ts *emplar F,aballeros *emplariosG cartel left t#ree dead and t$o ot#ers inured% *#e region #as been infested by t#e operations of drug trafficking cartels in recent mont#s%
+rail8s Supreme &ourt has ordered the arrest of 1! people con#icted in the country8s biggest corruption trial to date.
=eferred as t#e (ensalao trial5 t#e case involves politicians5 businessmen and bankers accused of diverting public funds to buy political support during !ui" /n'cio !ula da ilvaCs government bet$een 2002 and 200-%
"n the radar
 
&olombian President 9uan Manuel Santos to declare himself o#er his probable candidature
for t#e (ay 201 presidential election%
 
orkers affiliated to the &TA union plan to hold nationwide protests across Argentina
on 20 November%
 
Localised unrest likely ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections in ,onduras
on 2 November%
 
-urther disrupti#e protests are possible across &hile
as an indefinite strike by municipal $orkers continues%
 
Planned anti/go#ernment demonstrations in Port/au/Prince( ,aiti(
on 18 November%
 

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