Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Preview 3Q52:
6.01 3Q52 13.9% QoQ
0.9% YoY 9M52 2.24 78%
-34% YoY
QoQ
non-voice
( 2G )
DTAC TRUE
Overweight
(Maintain)
140
900
120
800
100
700
ADVANC:
600
80
500
60
400
300
40
200
20
100
0
2005
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: KS
DTAC: conservative
Kusumaporn Sookmongkol
Kusumaporn.s@kasikornsecurities .com; Tel: +662 696-0053
TRUE:
TRUE 102
QoQ True Move, True Vision
3Q52 Neutral
TRUE
TRUE
3G
3G
(.)
TOT
CAT 3G .
.
Code
REC
Price
Fair price
+/-
Mkt cap
PER (x)
ROE (%)
(Bt)
(Bt)
(%)
(Btmn)
2009E
2010E
2009E
2010E
2009E
2010E
2009E
2010E
Outperform
93.75
101.00
7.7
277,719
17,477
17,918
-7.1
2.5
15.9
15.5
24.2
25.1
DTAC
Neutral
42.00
32.00
-23.8
99,448
6,230
6,365
-17.5
2.2
16.0
15.6
10.2
10.0
TRUE
Neutral
3.34
2.20
-34.1
23,635
-1,315
-1,787
-381.3
35.9
n.a
n.a
n.a
n.a
ADVANC
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy,
completeness or correctness are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the best information
known to us then, and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice.
8 October 2009
www.kasikornsecurities.com
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
%YoY
%QoQ
%YTD2009E
2009E
58,987
39,899
21,015
11,056
5,953
5,140
2.22
57,594
39,588
19,684
9,275
5,872
466
2.03
58,116
38,841
21,664
11,991
6,276
5,906
2.19
56,147
37,359
21,274
10,852
5,275
6,784
1.95
58,547
38,777
22,364
11,407
6,010
6,350
2.14
-0.7%
-2.8%
6.4%
3.2%
0.9%
23.5%
-3.7%
4.3%
3.8%
5.1%
5.1%
13.9%
-6.4%
9.8%
73%
72%
76%
80%
78%
80%
75%
236,690
159,841
85,770
42,959
22,392
23,747
8.35
2.72
-0.52
-1.50
-0.55
-3.35
2.03
-1.97
-2.73
-0.70
4.30
Avg YTD
2009E
32.4%
34.1%
17.0%
18.4%
31.3%
32.5%
14.9%
8.7%
33.2%
35.8%
19.3%
12.3%
33.5%
36.6%
18.0%
11.5%
33.8%
36.9%
18.2%
12.4%
33.5%
36.4%
18.5%
12.1%
32.5%
34.7%
16.6%
8.9%
Change
1.4%
2.8%
1.2%
-6.0%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.9%
Source: KS
5.85
4.3% QoQ 0.7% YoY -
QoQ
2Q ()
TRUE QoQ (+6%)
iPhone 3Gs
Blackberry ADVANC QoQ
(+1.8%) DTAC
Blackberry DTAC
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
982
877
810
536
272
320
500
25,087
25,965
26,775
27,310
27,582
27,902
28,402
884
777
780
469
263
255
200
16,656
17,433
18,213
18,682
18,945
19,200
19,400
49
507
720
1,081
247
243
250
12,448
12,956
13,675
14,757
15,004
15,247
15,497
ADVANC
Total net additions
Total subs
DTAC
Total net additions
Total subs
TRUE
Total net additions
Total subs
Source: KS
8 October 2009
ICT
IR
voice
(International Roaming: IR)
(International Direct Dialing: IDD) 7-9%
( IC) IR
85% 1Q48-2Q52 (.)
.. 52
IR TRUE
IR IR IDD TRUE
IR ID 10-20% QoQ 3Q52
Vodafone DTAC
Figure 2: Improving GDP guides increasing service revenue
Million
5000
Btmn
1.2
24,000
4500
1.1
22,000
4000
20,000
3500
2500
16,000
500
Source: BOT, KS
3Q09
2Q09
1Q09
4Q08
3Q08
2Q08
1Q08
4Q07
3Q07
2Q07
1Q07
4Q06
1Q05
1Q10E
1Q09
3Q09E
3Q08
1Q08
3Q07
1Q07
3Q06
1Q06
3Q05
1Q05
500
3Q04
1000
10,000
1Q04
12,000
0.4
3Q03
0.5
1Q03
1500
3Q02
14,000
1Q02
1000
2000
0.6
3Q06
0.7
1500
3000
18,000
0.8
2Q06
0.9
Btmn
2500
IR (RHS)
2000
1Q06
1.0
4Q05
3Q05
GDP (LHS)
2Q05
Bttn
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
ADVANC
41.7%
41.8%
44.4%
44.4%
44.8%
AVERAGE
34.1%
32.5%
35.8%
36.6%
36.9%
DTAC
31.4%
25.9%
29.6%
30.0%
30.1%
TRUE
29.1%
29.8%
33.3%
35.2%
35.9%
Source: KS
8 October 2009
ICT
2G
3G
DTAC
28 .. ..
( )
ADVANC ( 101
) top pick 3G
Figure 5: PER and earnings growth
PE(X)
60
ROE(%)
30
TRUE
50
25
40
20
30
ADVANC
SETICT
15
ICTregional
20
SETICT
ADVANC
DTAC
10
SET
SET
ICTregional
10
DTAC
5
Earning
growth(%)
TRUE
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Source: KS
8 October 2009
PBV(X)
0
Source: KS
ICT
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
%YoY
%QoQ
%YTD2009E
2009E
27,528
11,488
6,908
4,555
4,533
1.54
26,270
10,980
5,666
3,933
420
1.33
26,300
11,672
7,016
4,546
4,567
1.54
25,198
11,191
6,462
4,155
4,196
1.40
25,977
11,641
6,702
4,397
4,447
1.48
-6%
1%
-3%
-3%
-2%
-4%
3%
4%
4%
6%
6%
6%
0.71
0.74
0.75
0.75
0.76
0.75
108,479
8.3
-1.9
209
0.5
-2.1
347
-4.1
1.6
274
-5.4
-3.0
319
-3.5
0.0
321
34.4%
41.7%
25.1%
27.9%
36.7%
41.8%
21.6%
22.0%
35.2%
44.4%
26.7%
24.4%
34.6%
44.4%
25.6%
23.7%
36.3%
44.8%
25.8%
24.5%
53%
Change
2.0%
3.1%
0.7%
-3.3%
Avg YTD
2.3
n.a
441
2009E
35.4%
44.5%
26.0%
24.2%
36.5%
42.8%
24.8%
17.7%
1%
1.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.9%
46,414
26,892
17,477
17,477
5.90
Source: KS
8 October 2009
ICT
EV (Btmn.)
500,000
160
450,000
9x
400,000
140
8x
350,000
7x
120
300,000
6x
100
250,000
5x
80
200,000
4x
150,000
3x
100,000
2x
5.5x
5x
4.5x
4x
3.5x
3x
2.5x
60
40
20
50,000
-
8 October 2009
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
Source: KS
May-04
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jan-00
Source: KS
ICT
DTAC
92,000
3Q52 DTAC
Blackberry iPhone-3Gs TRUE
DTAC DTAC
Blackberry
DTAC
IR Vodafone DTAC Vodafone
Vodafone
DTAC Vodafone
300 IR
DTAC 3%
9M52 4.36 46% YoY 70% 2552
(6.23 )
DTAC 3Q52 28
29
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
%YoY
%QoQ
%YTD2009E
2009E
16,415
5,146
2,780
1,838
1,836
0.78
16,125
4,172
1,991
1,340
1,239
0.57
16,247
4,809
2,380
1,482
1,470
0.63
15,823
4,752
2,161
1,360
1,364
0.57
16,535
4,973
2,323
1,511
1,531
0.64
1%
-3%
-16%
-18%
-17%
-18%
4%
5%
8%
11%
12%
11%
0.75
0.71
0.68
0.70
0.70
0.70
65,122
20,564
10,036
6,230
6,230
2.63
2.6
0.3
-8
-0.7
-0.5
-203
-3.6
2.1
-272
-0.6
-2.4
-320
-0.9
0.0
-161
33.3%
31.4%
16.9%
13.7%
30.1%
25.9%
12.3%
10.4%
32.5%
29.6%
14.6%
12.3%
32.5%
30.0%
13.7%
11.6%
32.1%
30.1%
14.0%
12.5%
1832%
-50%
Change
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
0.0
-0.0
0.0
-0.0
0.0
Avg YTD
32.4%
29.9%
14.1%
12.1%
-3
n.a
-873
2009E
32%
32%
15%
8%
Source: KS
8 October 2009
ICT
250,000
150,000
100,000
2.4x
60
11x
10x
9x
8x
7x
6x
5x
4x
200,000
70
2.1x
50
1.8x
40
1.5x
30
1.2x
0.9x
20
0.6x
50,000
10
Source: KS
8 October 2009
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Source: KS
ICT
TRUE 372
102 ADVANC DTAC QoQ
IR IDD
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09E
%YoY
%QoQ %YTD09E
2009E
Financials
Sales (Btmn)
15,044
15,198
15,569
15,127
16,035
6.6%
6.0%
74%
63,089
EBITDA (Btmn)
4,381
4,532
5,183
5,331
5,749
31.2%
7.8%
87%
18,792
1,367
1,618
2,595
2,229
2,382
74.3%
6.8%
119%
6,032
-440
599
248
-240
102
n.a
n.a
n.a
-1,315
-1,228
-1,193
-131
1,224
372
n.a
n.a
3687%
-0.10
0.13
0.03
-0.03
0.01
n.a
n.a
-7%
-2.8%
-4.4%
-2.3%
0.3%
6.6%
1.8%
-0.3%
1.0%
2.4%
-2.8%
6.0%
1,355
Net IC (Btmn)
-209
-162
-28
-20
-117
40
-0.19
Performance Drivers
Ratios
n.a
Change
n.a
Avg YTD
-218
2009E
29.4%
27.1%
31.8%
33.3%
32.9%
3.5%
-0.4%
32.6%
29.1%
29.1%
29.8%
33.3%
35.2%
35.9%
6.7%
0.6%
34.8%
29.8%
9.1%
10.6%
16.7%
14.7%
14.9%
5.8%
0.1%
15.4%
9.6%
13.7%
-6.1%
0.3%
-0.9%
0.1%
-13.6%
1.0%
-0.2%
0.6%
8 October 2009
ICT
TRUE
TRUE
True Vision
3G TRUE PBV 2 ()
2.20 Neutral TRUE
TRUE
3G
Figure 14: TRUE EV/EBITDA BAND
EV(Btmn.)
250,000
Bt
16
14
11x
10x
9x
8x
7x
6x
5x
4x
200,000
150,000
100,000
12
6.5x
10
5.5x
8
4.5x
6
3.5x
50,000
2.5x
1.5x
0.5x
Source: KS
8 October 2009
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
May-04
Jan-04
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jan-00
Source: KS
10
ICT