PTTAR: PTT Aromatics and Refining Plc

PTTAR
Buy Neutral 32.5 24
( DCF DDM)
PTT
synergy

underperform
NGO

(
)

76

(HIA)

Thailand: Company Focus

22 October 2009

Buy (Intend to Downgrade)

Event
Fair price (Bt)
Stock price (Bt)
Upside/Downside (%)
Valuation approach
Market Cap (Btbn)
6M avg. daily value (Btmn)
Free float (%)
Warrant (Dilution %)
Industry
Bloomberg/Reuters
CG Score by IOD (2008)
Pass

Satisfactory

PTTAR

PTTAR
Euro IV
( 221 ) Vapour Removal (72 )
( 10%)
(SK)

EURO IV
Condensate Residue Splitter (CRS) (
175 )
20-60
( 1 ) 20%
2553 PTTAR

70.8
1,219.1
51.3
None
Energy
PTTAR.TB / PTTAR.BK
Good

Very Good

Excellent

Recommendation of local peers

BUY: ESSO, TOP, PTTAR, PTTCH
Neutral: IRPC

YE Dec 31

2008

2009E

2010E

2011E

Company Earnings & Financials

EBITDA (Btmn)

-9,218

20,779

19,601

19,363

Core Profit (Btmn)

-8,525

9,786

8,166

7,331

-2.9

3.3

2.8

2.5

0.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

Core EPS (Bt)

DPS (Bt)
Core EPS gr (%)
ROE (%)

-1.5

2.1

-0.2

-0.1

-14.1

17.6

13.4

11.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.1

Net D/E (x)

Valuation
Core PER (x)

-8.6

7.5

9.0

10.0

Div Yield (%)

2.0

5.6

4.4

4.0

PBV (x)

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

-15.5

7.1

7.8

7.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

PTT

Private visit
32.50
23.90
36.0
DCF

Relative to Consensus [(Company/Consensus)*100)]

Core PER (x)

100

100

118

Div Yield (%)

100

126

95

145
77

PBV (x)

100

105

107

110

ROE (%)

100

42

50

51

Relative to Industry [(Company/Industry)*100]

Core PER (x)

-56

72

105

101

Div Yield (%)

38

118

79

81

PBV (x)

76

69

69

67

ROE (%)

-116

101

66

67

-38

52

80

98

Regional PER (x)

PBV Band
Bt
60

PBV Band - PTTAR

50
2.1x
1.8x
1.5x
1.2x
0.9x
0.6x
0.3x

40
30
20
10
0
2008

2009

Source: KS

Somkij Oranchatchawan
Somkij.o@kasikornsecurities .com; +662 696-0039
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are based upon sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy,
completeness or correctness are not guaranteed. Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the best information
known to us then, and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice.

22 October 2009

www.kasikornsecurities.com

4Q52 ( middle
distillate )
1 ( 2552 1.3
) 4Q52
2 () 1Q53-3Q53

Preview 3Q52: QoQ

hedging

PTTAR 62% QoQ 1.6 3Q52 consensus

() 3.5

3.58 (1.7 )
hedging 1.22 (937 ) 2Q2 PTTAR /
3Q52
middle distillate
() (GIM) QoQ
5

3Q52 (
81% 2Q52 hydro-cracking HCU
7 )
50%
315 3Q52 1.4
2Q52

Figure 1: 3Q09 earnings preview

(Unit: Btmn)
Dubai crude oil (US$/bbl)

3Q09E

% QoQ

% YoY

9M09E

% YoY

% 2009F

68.0

15.5%

-40.2%

57.2

-46.2%

104%

Mkt GIM (US$/bbl)

5.0

-14.5%

39.1%

4.4

-8.4%

123%

Hedging gain

0.0

-100.0%

-100.0%

1.4

-237.4%

194%

Stock Gain/Loss (US$/bbl)

0.0

-100.0%

100.0%

1.8

-26.9%

nm.

Net GRM (US$/bbl)

5.0

-47.2%

158.7%

8.2

28.4%

229%
114%

Paraxylene (US$/MT)

913

-3.7%

-31.9%

872

-32.1%

Benzene (US$/MT)

823

22.7%

-31.6%

635

-45.4%

121%

Px spread (US$/MT)

334

-25.0%

-12.5%

384

-1.2%

152%

Bz spread (US$/MT)

245

45.5%

-0.2%

147

-44.9%

1586%

65,931

29.3%

-14.3%

159,814

-27.8%

47%

Gross Margin

2,897

-39.5%

164.4%

9,035

41.1%

59%

Operating Profit

2,567

-52.4%

158.8%

11,420

205.5%

71%

Core Profit

1,281

-54.9%

139.1%

6,240

221.0%

64%

315

-77.4%

409.0%

1,331

392.0%

nm.

Sales

Fx Gain (Loss)
Net Profit

1,596

-62.3%

147.3%

7,570

241.8%

74.4%

Net EPS (Bt)

0.54

-62.3%

147.3%

2.55

241.8%

74%

Core EPS (Bt)

0.43

-54.9%

139.1%

2.11

221.0%

64%

Source: KS

22 October 2009

PTTAR: PTT Aromatics and Refining Plc