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Company Update, 22 November 2013

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


Oil & Gas - Exploration & Production Market Cap: USD317m

Buy (Maintained)
Target Price: Price:
Macro

SGD1.38 SGD0.54

Market Loses Sight Of Fundamental Value

Risks Growth Value

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS)

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

224 204 184 164 144 124 104 84

0 0 . 3 0 0 RHPs share price fell by almost 20% on news that the Zircon-1 well did . 0 not flow. This is equivalent to a SGD99m loss in market value due to a 0 well costing SGD8m, and whose cost is recoverable. Meanwhile, the 0 stock is trading at a 44% discount to its production assets alone, ascribing zero value to 1,074mmboe of 2C and prospective resources in appraisal, development and exploration assets. Reiterate BUY, with SGD1.38 TP.

2 . 3 0 . 3

Loses SGD99m in market value in relation to recoverable SGD8m well. Fundamentally, apart from having spent SGD8m (recoverable from existing oil & gas production under the PSC terms), little has changed in RH Petrogas (RHP). The entire Zircon prospect is worth only 2.5% of the companys intrinsic value. The rapid loss of market value has given rise to a clear divergence between price and value, with irrational fear overriding reasonable valuation. 44% discount to RHPs production assets value. RHPs enterprise value now stands at USD295m, which is a sharp 44% discount to the USD525m value of its production assets (the producing areas in Basin, Island and near-production Fuyu). Investors are getting the 64.5mmboe of 2C resources and 1.04bn bbls of prospective resources for free. Devon Energy just bought 400mmboe of Eagle Ford oilfields for USD6bn. Yesterday, Devon Energy (DVN US, NR) purchased GeoSouthern Energys 400mmboe of reserves in Eagle Ford for USD6bn in cash, equivalent to USD15 per barrel. Note that Eagle Ford is an unconventional shale field producing light oil, which should have a lower NPV/bbl value compared to RHPs conventional fields. This supports our USD14.6-16.1/bbl NPV valuation for RHPs conventional light-oil assets and our USD10/bbl NPV for the unconventional heavy Fuyu oil. RHPs production assets are worth SGD0.90 per share , based on our conservative assumptions. Panic selling gone too far. The panic selling in the last month has been excessive, and predicated on miscomprehension of the technical terms and operational procedures described in RHPs announcements. We believe that the fundamental value of RHP will be reflected in the share price given wider investor education. Smart money should average down and await the eventual revaluation. Reiterate BUY, with SGD1.38 TP.
Dec-11 89 2.9 2.9 65.0 0.01 67.3 2.7 1.80 6.4 7.7 51.3 Dec-12 86 6.1 6.1 108.2 0.01 36.7 4.2 1.47 11.7 8.2 7.6 Dec-13F 96 (10.8) (10.8) (277.6) (0.02) na (5.3) 1.38 10.3 21.1 net cash 8.4 Dec-14F 124 3.6 3.6 na 0.00 88.0 1.6 1.36 17.6 8.4 2.2 (57.1) Dec-15F 186 15.1 15.1 320.0 0.02 21.0 6.3 1.28 8.9 5.7 9.0 (17.4)

Vol m

May-13

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Jan-13

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) Shareholders (%) Tan Sri Datuk Sir Tiong Hiew King

4.81m/3.86m 172.2 156 0.42 - 0.92 35

64.6

Shariah compliant

Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (USDm) Reported net profit (USDm) Recurring net profit (USDm) Recurring net profit growth (%)

Lee Yue Jer +65 6232 3898


yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com

Core EPS (USD) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (%)

Jason Saw +65 6232 3871


jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

Additional Notes
Valuation models. Our NPV-and-risking model incorporates a longer term view of the companys valuation, which attaches a conservative 10% risking to the companys exploration-stage resources. We also assume that the Fuyu-1 shallow oil field will commence production by early 2014. Figure 2 provides the current valuation of RHPs assets, ie the conservative estimates of the market value of its assets as of today. Note that Fuyu-1s value is halved as its oil is still classified as 2C contingent resources, while zero value is attributed to the prospective resources. RHP should still trade at a minimum of SGD1.03 today on the back of these marketable assets.

Figure 1: Our NPV-and-risking model


Equity % 60% 33% 49% 2P mmboe 9.0 2.0 11.0 Development / Re-activation / Appraisal Drilling Stage Indonesia Basin - Klalin Indonesia Basin - SE Walio Indonesia Island - TBC Indonesia Island - Koi Indonesia Island - North Sele Indonesia Island - Zircon Indonesia Basin - Klagalo China Fuyu-1 Deep Gas Exploration Stage Indonesia Malaysia Indonesia Indonesia 60% 60% 60% 33% 33% 33% 60% 49% 0.0 West Belida SK331 Basin - Wario & Arar Island - Koi & Sele Strait Total: 94% 80% 60% 33% 0.0 11.0 Value (USDm) 524.5 185.4 97.1 78.0 -77.7 807.3 731.3 0.0 64.5 35.0 35.0 9.5 2.3 7.0 5.0 5.7 14.0 32.4 27.0 73.4 5.0 180.0 399.6 386.0 970.6 1,044.0 0.0 50% 50% 50% 30% 30% 20% 20% 30% 2C mmboe Prospective Resources mmboe Risking % 100% 100% 100% Risked mmboe 9.0 2.0 35.0 46.0 4.8 1.2 3.5 1.5 1.7 2.8 6.5 8.1 30.0 0.5 18.0 40.0 38.6 97.1 173.1 NPV USDm 144.7 29.3 350.6 524.5 38.2 9.4 25.6 11.0 12.5 20.5 52.1 16.2 185.4 0.5 18.0 40.0 38.6 97.1 807.0 NPV USD/boe 16.1 14.6 10.0 11.4 8.0 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.0 2.0 6.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.7

Country Field Production / Near-production Stage Indonesia Basin Indonesia Island China Fuyu-1 Shallow Oil

29.5

10% 10% 10% 10%

Producing / near-production Development / appraisal Exploration Adjust for Group gross cash USDm) Adjust for Group gross debt (USDm) Target equity value (USDm) Shares (m) Forex rate

Per share 0.72 0.25 0.13 0.11 Adjusted for placement. -0.11 Adjusted for expected capex till 3Q14. 1.10 1.25

Equity value per share (SGD/share)


Source: OSK-DMG estimates

1.38

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

Figure 2: Market valuation of reserves and resources as of 21 Nov 2013


Equity Country Field Production / Near-production Indonesia Basin Indonesia Island China Fuyu-1 - Shallow Oil Development / Re-activation / Appraisal Drilling Stage Indonesia Basin - Klalin Indonesia Basin - SE Walio Indonesia Island - TBC Indonesia Island - Koi Indonesia Island - North Sele Indonesia Island - Zircon Indonesia Basin - Klagalo China Fuyu-1 - Deep Gas Exploration Stage Indonesia Malaysia Indonesia Indonesia Total % 60% 33% 49% 2P mmboe 9.0 2.0 11.0 60% 60% 33% 33% 33% 33% 60% 49% 0.0 West Belida SK331 Basin - Walio / Arar Island - Koi & Sele Strait 94% 80% 60% 33% 0.0 11.0 0.0 64.5 35.0 35.0 9.5 2.3 7.0 5.0 5.7 14.0 32.4 27.0 73.4 5.0 180.0 399.6 386.0 970.6 1,044.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 173.9 0.0 399.9 224.6 2C mmboe Prospective Resources mmboe 2P Value USDm/ mmboe 16.1 14.6 5.0 173.9 2C Value USDm/ mmboe PR Value USDm/ mmboe 2P Value USDm 144.7 29.3 175.3 175.3 76.4 18.8 51.2 36.6 41.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2C Value USDm PR Value USDm

29.5

2P 2C Resources Add cash Less debt Equity value Shares (m) Forex rate

Equity value (SGD)


Source: OSK-DMG estimates

Value (USDm) Per Share 173.9 0.24 399.9 0.55 0.0 0.00 78.0 0.11 Adjusted for placement. -49.2 -0.07 Debt as of 3Q13. No adjustment for future capex as this is liquidation valuation. 602.7 0.82 731.3 1.25 USD/boe 1.03 Implicit EV/(2P+2C) Valuation 8.0

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (USDm) Total turnover Cost of sales Gross profit Gen & admin expenses Other operating costs Operating profit Operating EBITDA Depreciation of fixed assets Operating EBIT Other recurring income Interest expense Pre-tax profit Taxation Profit after tax & minorities Reported net profit Recurring net profit
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Dec-11 89 (57) 33 (5) (7) 20 33 (13) 20 1 (2) 19 (16) 3 3 3

Dec-12 86 (54) 32 (5) (8) 18 29 (10) 18 0 (2) 16 (10) 6 6 6

Dec-13F 96 (62) 35 (7) (26) 1 12 (11) 1 1 (3) (1) (10) (11) (11) (11)

Dec-14F 124 (81) 42 (8) (10) 25 38 (13) 25 (3) 22 (19) 4 4 4

Dec-15F 186 (125) 61 (8) (10) 43 60 (17) 43 (3) 40 (25) 15 15 15

Cash flow (USDm) Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital Other operating cash flow Operating cash flow Interest received Interest paid Tax paid Cash flow from operations Capex Other investing cash flow Cash flow from investing activities Proceeds from issue of shares Increase in debt Other financing cash flow Cash flow from financing activities Cash at beginning of period Total cash generated Forex effects Implied cash at end of period
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Dec-11 20 13 7 3 43 0 (1) (11) 31 (28) (1) (29) 31 (14) 17 6 19 (1) 24

Dec-12 18 10 (6) 5 29 0 (2) (8) 19 (28) (1) (29) 16 (2) 14 24 4 0 28

Dec-13F 1 11 3 25 40 0 (3) (10) 27 (41) (1) (42) 58 6 64 29 49 78

Dec-14F 25 13 1 39 (3) (19) 18 (52) (52) 10 10 77 (24) 53

Dec-15F 43 17 4 63 (3) (25) 36 (53) (53) 10 10 53 (7) 46

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (USDm) Total cash and equivalents Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Total current assets Tangible fixed assets Intangible assets Total other assets Total non-current assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Total long-term debt Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained earnings reserve Shareholders' equity Total equity Total liabilities & equity
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Dec-11 24 5 6 1 35 65 140 55 259 294 1 49 6 56 79 50 128 184 138 (28) 110 110 294

Dec-12 29 6 9 1 44 68 140 67 275 319 5 49 3 58 37 43 80 138 200 (19) 181 181 319

Dec-13F 77 2 12 1 91 79 140 62 281 372 11 51 4 65 37 41 78 143 258 (29) 229 229 372

Dec-14F 53 2 15 1 71 118 140 62 320 391 21 56 4 80 37 41 78 158 258 (26) 233 233 391

Dec-15F 46 3 23 1 73 154 140 62 356 429 31 68 4 103 37 41 78 181 258 (11) 248 248 429

Key Ratios (USD) Revenue growth (%) Operating profit growth (%) Net profit growth (%) EPS growth (%) Bv per share growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Recurrent cash flow per share
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Dec-11 76.2 214.2 65.0 64.8 0.5 22.4 3.3 1.0 2.7 51.3 0.07

Dec-12 (3.4) (8.0) 108.2 83.5 22.6 21.3 7.1 2.0 4.2 7.6 0.04

Dec-13F 11.5 (92.7) (277.6) (242.6) 6.0 1.4 (11.3) (3.1) (5.3) (12.8) 0.04

Dec-14F 28.4 1761.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 20.1 2.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 0.02

Dec-15F 50.6 71.8 320.0 320.0 6.5 23.0 8.1 3.7 6.3 9.0 0.05

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

SWOT Analysis
A higher probability of discoveries in its oilfields that have existing production Strong pipeline of drilling plans to move resources to reserves Senior management has over 35 years of relevant experience Rising oil prices would make future acquisitions more expensive, while increasing the value of its existing assets. Falling oil prices have the opposite impact.

Has a network within the industry to expand further into Myanmar and other Asean countries

Exploration plans could be delayed by political events in regional countries

P/E (x) vs EPS growth


200
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

P/BV (x) vs ROAE


5,000%
4,400% 3,800% 3,200% 2,600% 2,000% 1,400% 800% 200% -400% -1,000%

2.0
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

8%
7% 5% 4% 2% 1% 0% -2% -3% -5% -6%

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

P/E (x) (lhs)

EPS growth (rhs)

P/B (x) (lhs)

Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates

Company Profile
RH Petrogas is an exploration & production company with oil & gas concessions in Indonesia, Malaysia and China. It has two producing fields in Indonesia and is currently developing the Chinese concession for production. Exploration and appraisal wells are planned for concessions in Malaysia and Indonesia.

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Jan-15

RH Petrogas (RHP SP)


22 November 2013

Recommendation Chart
Price Close
1.1 1.0
Recommendations & Target Price

0.9
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
Buy 0.3 Nov-08 Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit

Not Rated

Mar-10

Jun-11

Sep-12

Source: OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg


Date 2013-11-18 2013-11-11 2013-10-31 2013-10-03 2013-10-01 Recommendation Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Target Price Price 1.38 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.47 0.58 0.69 0.67 0.90 0.71

Source : OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report

1.33

1.47

NR

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