But it shows the story of one of the choice influencers and that is the story of
.Inertia can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on what side of the curve you are on. It iseasy to read
ster you are climbing the “Y” Axis the greater your Inertia. In this case if you are riding high on a current business case with an evolved solution and billions of users…
you might almost feel invincible… and you are probably a Mobile Service Provider
and if you
are really good, you are probably a GSM Mobile Service Provider…
Mobile subs will number over
3 Billion Users
now or very soon (depending on whom you listento) and this will increase to over
5 Billion users or devices by 2013
. Currently about 70% of
these devices use GSM as the base technology and this is growing…
The force is with them andthe MARKET INERTIA is Great!
The next best climber on the “Y” axis is the number of Internet Subs… also moving
to over 2 Billion users at the e
nd of this year…
Obviously the Inertia l effectshows us that the most popular choices people are making today involve Cell Phones andInternet!
Broadband Users represent the next best climber
--- moving exponentially using Wireline
s, Fixed Wireless
Proprietary and WiMAX, Mobile GSM and CDMA, and Mobile WiMAX…
Everybody wants BROADBAND, and to the ones providing it, it has to be delivered under $500US per subscriber --- the more under $500 the better the case. In fact $500 seems is the WorstCase condition.
But on the chart
look at the WiMAX Inertia
… We will have
fewer than 150 Million WiMAX
subscribers delivered from about 500 providers worldwide by 2011…I have drawn this chart to scale so the Inertial effects are obvious… showing where the market
In my humble opinion WiMAX will have a greater challenge overcoming the Mobile (LTE) Inertiaand we have not even talked about the hand held multimedia device Inertia in both technologyecosystems.This is not to say that WiMAX is not an important technology
It will be deployed and in myopinion as a NICHE MARKET Solution --- there is nothing wrong with a GOOD NICHE MARKET!