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Table Of Contents

Lighthouse Recession Probability Index
Introduction
Fed Funds Rate
Crude Oil
Construction: Building Permits
Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls
Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey
Employment: Jobs Gained / Lost
Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost (zoomed-in)
Employment: Hire and Fire
Employment: Initial and Revised Non-Farm Payrolls
Employment: Full Time
Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees
Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate
Employment: Unemployment
Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey
Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey
Credit: Total Outstanding
Credit: Bank Loans and Leases
Retail Sales: Nominal
Retail Sales: Real
Retail Sales: Real per-capita
Retail Sales: Excluding Autos
Manufacturing: Hours Worked
Manufacturing: Orders
Orders: Capital Goods
Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Energy: Consumption
Energy: Production
Transportation: Miles Traveled
Transportation: Gasoline Consumption
Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita
Inflation: Consumer & Producer Prices
Inflation Expectations
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Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - November

Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - November

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Published by Alexander Gloy
In this issue we added easy-to-read tables with data of past three months, detailed data on population growth, working-age population, Labor Force and employment. We also look at drop-outs from the Labor Force, and how the unemployment rate would look like without drop-outs.
In summary, our weighted indicators see a 7% likelihood of the US economy currently being in a recession.
However, growth will be modest at best, due to stagnating real disposable income per capita. Slowing growth in bank loans and leases are another cause for concern.
In this issue we added easy-to-read tables with data of past three months, detailed data on population growth, working-age population, Labor Force and employment. We also look at drop-outs from the Labor Force, and how the unemployment rate would look like without drop-outs.
In summary, our weighted indicators see a 7% likelihood of the US economy currently being in a recession.
However, growth will be modest at best, due to stagnating real disposable income per capita. Slowing growth in bank loans and leases are another cause for concern.

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Alexander Gloy on Nov 25, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial
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