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Electricity Shortage in Pakistan becomes more severe during the year 2005-2006 due
to extensive use luxurious appliances of electricity by domestic users.According to the
report, in the fiscal year 2005-06, some 2,250MW power was required to operate some
7.7 million electric home appliances i.e. number of refrigerators in the country were
1,100,000 and power required for them was estimated at 110MW, the number of deep
freezers were estimated at 200,000 and required power for them stood at 60MW, some
1,000MW power was required to run 2 million air conditioners. These figures are so
alarming for Pakistan because in the decade starting from 1991 these appliances are
less than a half million. the study was made on the topic shortage of electricity in
Pakistan in comparison with air conditioners imported and produced during 2005-
2006.in this study the hypothesis were set as, is
Electricity shortage in Pakistan is caused by Industrial growth or massive use of Air
conditioners by domestic users. However after finding out and analyzing the data that
the increased domestic use of air conditioners is the cause of electricity shortage in
Pakistan.
This study was made to demonstrate the effects of massive installation and usage of air
conditioners in Pakistan during 2005-2006.Before going to details here is the some text
which gives you the overview of the Pakistan’s economy, and Pakistan’s over all energy
usage.
In recent years, the combination of rising oil consumption and flat oil production in
Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. In addition, the lack of
refining capacity leaves Pakistan heavily dependent on petroleum product imports. Natural
gas accounts for the largest share of Pakistan’s energy use, amounting to about 50 percent
of total energy consumption. Pakistan currently consumes all of its domestic natural gas
production, but without higher production Pakistan will need to become a natural gas
importer. As a result, Pakistan is exploring several pipeline and LNG import options to
meet the expected growth in natural gas demand. Pakistan’s electricity demand is rising
rapidly. According to Pakistani government estimates, generating capacity needs to grow
by 50 percent by 2010 in order to meet expected demand.
Natural Gas,
50.30%
Pakistan is facing a huge electric power crisis today. This crisis appears insurmountable in
the near or even long-term future, unless proper understanding and correct implementation
is undertaken on priority basis. At present total power production capacity in the country is
about 19,500 MW, out of which Hydel Power is only 6,500 MW, balance of 13,000 MW is
thermal either using Natural Gas or Furnace Oil. Small capacity of 450 MW is Nuclear and
only 150 MW is through coal.
The problem of massive load shedding in Pakistan was properly introduced in 2004-
2005.Because in these days the overall GDP growth was very high near about 9% per year.
In these years the business progress was very well and banks industry grows at a vigorous
speed. Banks introduces new schemes in which peoples were provided home appliances on
lease. Thus resulting an increase in production and exports of home appliances. These
home appliances not only include the necessity objects like refrigerator but also the Luxury
objects like Air conditioners. Although most of the air conditioners were made in Pakistan
but 60% of the raw material used in air conditioners was imported from different countries
of the world.
Due to these reasons Pakistan was hit badly by two basic problems such as budget deficit
and shortage of electricity.
Now a days the consumption of Air conditioners in Pakistan is slow comparing to 2005-
2006.But the Load shedding Problem becomes more severe.
From different resources it is also confirmed that during 2002-2006 Pakistan’s industry
sector was also at boom so without testing the hypothesis we cannot say that the Load
shedding problem is due to usage of Air conditioners. Here we also have to note down that
the ratio of growth in consumption of electriicty to production of electriicty.
To find out the past trends of electriicty consumption and present and future situations is
also an objective of my research.
2.Literature Review:
After analyzing the Pakistan’s energy shortages and their different reasons for these
shortages the following variables were identified.
Electricity
Air conditioners
New electricity capacities installed
Industrial growth
Air
Conditioner
Electricity NEC
Shortage Installed
Industrial
Growth
Massive domestic usage of air conditioners due to high income level negatively
affects electriicty supply.
No installation of new electriicty capacities negatively influences the electriicty
supply.
The industrial growth during 2005-2006 positively influences the electriicty supply.
5. Hypothesis:
1. Null Hypothesis:
H0: Massive usage of air conditioners in the country is responsible for the electriicty
shortage in the country.
1. Alternative Hypothesis:
H1: Massive usage of air conditioners in the country is not responsible for electriicty
shortage in the country.
2. Alternative Hypothesis:
H1: Growth in industrial sector is not responsible for the shortage of electriicty in
Pakistan.
3. Null Hypothesis:
H0: No installation of new electricity capacities is responsible for electriicty shortage
in Pakistan.
3. Alternative Hypothesis:
H1: No installation of new electricity capacities is not responsible for electricity
shortage in Pakistan.
6. Research Design:
To collect data these companies are contacted through PEPCO for better cooperation.Thus
the data collected from these sources is divded into two froms one is domestic consumption
of electricity and the other one is commercial consumption of electriicty during 2005-
2006. The staff of PEPCO also forwards me a report made by Engineer Tahir basharat
cheema the chairman of PEPCO. which was presented to the Prime minister.
The Primary and secondary data collected from different sources thus managed. Primary
data was collected in the form of filled questionnaire and the secondary data was collected
in the form of reports of different journalists and other government officials. The data
collected in the form of filled questionnaire is of primary nature thus it is directly analyzed
by using different statistical tools such as coefficient of variation and other measures of
location and measures of dispersion. Then the data was arranged and presented in a
graphical form so that any one can analyze the situation of electriicty shortage in Pakistan.
Now looking at the data which was collected from different electriicty supply companies of
Pakistan.
B e f o re g o i n g t o d e t a i l e d s t u d i e s h e re a re s o m e C o n c e p t s a n d
Definitions
WATT: Watt is a unit of power. A watt is defined as the rate of doing one joule (J) of
work in one second. Common units of power are multiple of the watt. These
are as under:
Domestic Supply
Commercial Supply
It includes power supply to offices and establishments such as shops, hotels, restaurants,
petrol pumps, private hospitals, cinemas, offices of associations and consultants etc.
Industrial Supply
It means power supply for bona fide industrial purposes in factories including the supply
required for the offices and for normal working of the industry and also for water pumps
and tube wells other than those meant for irrigation or reclamation of agriculture land.
Agricultural Supply
“Agricultural Supply” means a supply for lift Irrigation Pumps and/or Tube wells intended
solely for irrigation or reclamation of agricultural land or forests, and includes supply for
lighting of tube well chamber.
Maximum Demand
“Maximum Demand” means the highest demand obtained in any month measured over
successive periods each of 30 minutes duration.
Public Lighting
Bulk Supply
Beside that Electricity consumed in auxiliaries and system losses are referred as other
Consumption.
Domestic 10,005 81.7 10,783 81.7 13,086 82.6 13,888 83.1 14,838 83.4
Commercial 1,840 15.0 2,001 15.2 2,313 14.6 2,379 14.2 2,476 13.9
Industrial 220 1.8 224 1.7 230 1.5 234 1.4 245 1.4
Agriculture 174 1.4 175 1.3 201 1.3 204 1.2 223 1.2
FIG.7.1
Industrial
Agriculture Others
1%
1% 0%
Domestic
Commercial Commercial
14% Industrial
Agriculture
Others
Domestic
84%
Domestic 19,268 42.1 21,485 46.4 25,394 42.8 27,601 43.6 30,720 43.7
Commercial 2,381 5.2 2,544 5.5 3,586 6.0 4,080 6.4 4,730 6.7
Industrial 12,924 28.3 13,972 30.1 19,738 33.3 20,561 32.5 22,441 32.0
Agriculture 5,620 12.3 4,542 9.8 6,669 11.2 6,988 11.1 7,949 11.3
Public 225 0.5 239 0.5 271 0.5 306 0.5 353 0.5
Lighting
Bulk Supply 5,338 11.6 3,576 7.7 3,658 6.2 3,762 5.9 4,048 5.8
& others
FIG.7.2
Electricity consumption in MKH by branch
Bulk Supply & others
Lighting 6% 0%
0%
Domestic
Public
Commercial
1%
Industrial
Agriculture Domestic Agriculture
11% 43%
Public
Lighting
Industrial Bulk Supply
32% & others
Commercial
7%
MKH
2004-05
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2004-05
0
Domestic
Commercial
2004-05
Industrial
Agriculture
Public
Bulk Supply
2005-06
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 Total 2005-06
2005-06
Domestic
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Public Lit.
FIG.7.5
1999-00
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1999-00
0
Total
Domestic
Commercial
1999-00
Industrial
Agriculture
Public
The above tables and graphs show some facts of Pakistan’s power energy data. Now we
will look at the electricity generation graph of Pakistan.
1 2 3 4
1996-97 59,894 14,172 24.6
1997-98 62,915 15,453 25.5
1998-99 65,402 17,179 27.3
1999-00 66,562 17,664 27.6
2003-04 83,607 21,117 25.3
2004-05 88,379 21,603 25.4
2005-06 96,478 22,521 24.3
FIG.7.6
2005-06
System
Losses
19%
Units Generated
System Losses
Units
Generated
81%
We can clearly see the difference between consumption of electricity during 2004-2005 and
2005-2006 and 1999-2000. FIG.7.1 to 7.6 illustrates the story. That how electricity
consumption increases from 46,358 MKW to almost 60,000 MKW. Here is a point to note
that during year 2005-2006 system losses or line losses are about 20% which is alarming.
Analysis:
It was found that half a million ACs mainly of the split version was sold and added to the
power system during fiscal 2005-06. Thereafter, another 750,000 pieces of such equipment
was installed in Pakistan during the next financial year. 2005-06.
Importers and manufacturers of air conditioners had planned to sell upwards of a million
ACs during 2006-06, but due to the on-going power crises they could only purvey 750,000
such appliances. A market survey revealed that people wanting to add three ACs during
2008 would now buy two and spend the rest of the money on procurement of a generator.
The sale figures for the three years viz. 2005-08 add to a phenomenal two million pieces or
an addition of 4000 MW of load or at least a usage effect equaling 800 MW at 20 per cent
diversely factor. It was estimated that four million ACs of both the window and the split
versions (in addition to package and centrally air conditioned buildings) were added
between 2000-08 or a load of 1600 MW (with due diversity) to the system. One can safely
assume that a large number of such contraptions would be hooked up to the system in
addition to the equipment bought during 2000-2008. And if we quantify such use, we safely
come up with the figure of about 4000 MW as specifically AC load on the system. This
4000 MW of AC load simply vanished from the system demand after the mercury dropped
by 7-8°C on late September 5. The system remained so till September 08 where-after it has
slowly built up at a rate of 800-900 MW a day.
Energy labelling is unheard of and Pakistan remains a dumping ground for gas guzzling
and inefficient electrical equipment. The present requirement of cooling is being managed
by double the required load viz. only 2000 MW. As such, besides being unduly loaded by a
non-productive AC load of 4000 MW, the power system has also to arrange for expensive
peaking generation without many returns. Pakistan cannot afford such extravagant usage of
ACs and that all such usages have to necessarily result in great increase in utility revenues.
We must use ACs most frugally, and these have to be energy labeled with only efficient
models allowed to be imported and manufactured locally.
The other variables of our research such as industrial growth and consumption of electricity
in industry has almost no impact on shortage. Because industrial growth is only 7% during
2005-2006 raised from 3.5% from previous year. But Domestic consumption is increased
from 5% per year to 30% which is alarming.
So we accept the first null hypothesis that Massive usage of air conditioners in the
country is responsible for the electriicty shortage in the country. And we reject all
other hypothesis.
Installation of low cost new energy generation plants is very necessary. (Low cost
plant includes solar energy and wind energy systems theses systems are expensive
at purchasing but after installation these are the free sources of energy).
Line loses in shape of theft of electricity should also be decreased by making new
and harder laws.
10.References:
World Energy Data: www.eia.doe.gov
Daily Times
Daily News
www.worldbank.org
_______________________________________________________________________
3.Tele PhoneNos:_________________________________________________________
4.E-Mail:_______________________________________________________________
--The End—
In Table Format
records)
Electricity Shortage by branch wise(All In Table Format
available records)
records)