Urbanisation: A threat to Civil Order and Economies

Urbanisation:

The process of theformationandgrowthof cities,

The change in acountryorregionwhen itspopulation migratesfromruraltourbanareas,

Theproportionof a region's population that live intownsand cities; therateat which this proportion is growing.There are various predictions about the percentage of the world’s population that will permanentlyreside in urban and sub-urban areas by 2030 and these predictions range from 60% (United Nations)to 50% by French economist Philippe Bocquier. Without doubt there is a growing movement of ruralbased populations moving to urban areas and this gives growing concern to governments anddevelopment organisations alike. Examination of partially completed CIA documentation shows that in2008 the average percentage of urbanisation was near to 58% (range 17% Ethiopia to 92% Argentina)and in line with the United Nations predictions, although their prediction was for 2030 and the CIA wasfor 2008. It is clear that the global recession of the 1

and 2

decades of the new millennia willdramatically increase the likelihood of greater urbanisation of mainly economic migrants. Increasedurbanisation will also put very serious stress on social services, sanitation, clean water provision andemployment in host communities and the affect of these must not be underestimated.Local economics and the lack of resources is the usual reason why many migrate from the rural areas,either to seek employment and/or to seek better education and health support systems. The presentlevels of urbanisation are of great concern to civil authorities in that the ability to respond to thismigration is very limited and that the level of urban migrants far exceeds the service provision in water,sanitation, education, health, infrastructure and land resources.The map above shows the extent of global urbanisation and where in most continents the urbanisationis centred and although this neither emphasises the density ratios and land resources, it can be foundthat even those countries with vast land resources find that the majority of their population isurbanised. The increasing trend of urbanisation as depicted in CIA documentation highlights areaswhere there is an increase in the annual percentage migrating to the urban areas with Europereasonably stable and many parts of Africa and Southeast Asia showing marked increases.

Consequences

:The consequences of uncontrolled urban migration must be of concern to central and localgovernments as the existing quality of life can only be degraded by these increases and in many urbanareas, the quality of life is already very low. The threat to services is of paramount concern with thefollowing services put under increasing strain.-Potable water-Sanitation-Health services-Education services-Safety regulations-Civil order-Infrastructure-Urban planningAs the above list indicates, the services provided are crucial to maintaining and improving lifestyles inthe urban areas and the present rate of urban migration would indicate that few, if any local or centralgovernments would be able to respond to the increased demand, given that in many countries, theseservices are already at critical level and apt to fail completely.The increase in urban residents also puts considerable strain on the number of unemployed and thusthe ability to create income for family sustainability and this, in turn, creates situations where familiesand in some case, whole communities, are impoverished, hungry and volatile. Hungry and volatilecommunities are a threat to civil order and as has been seen in some countries, violence has brokenout, although not always due to internal migrants, but have been directly associated with externalmigrants from areas of stress or conflict.A recent (2006) United Nations document showed that 68% of all countries (developed anddeveloping) had access to clean water and that 37% had improved sanitation and there have beenincreasing concerns about the decline in available clean water sources and this can only add stress toan already dire situation. It has been estimated that up to 3 billion people have very limited or noaccess to potable water resources and map ‘A’ gives a good indication of where the main resources areand perhaps, why fewer people every year have reduced access. With rice being one of the majorstaple foods, restricted agricultural access to water is critical.

The two world maps shown above, depict ‘A’ the areas of the world with water retention capabilitiesand ‘B’ the distribution of wetlands throughout the world and these show that the ability of the soil toretain sufficient water is in crisis and that alternative means of water provision will need to beconsidered. Care should be given to excavating deeper to find water as, as has been found inBangladesh, heavy metal pollution of water caused severe problems in the communities where thesewere excavated. It is also likely that the existing urban areas will have few or finite water resources,other than coastal areas where the desalination of seawater can be considered.Where it is possible to determine the human occupation there is more likelihood that comparisons canbe made to ascertain areas where urban communities could be better tolerated.Urbanisation does not only affect the urban communities as the ability to provide potable water andfood is critical to the survival and probable expansion of the urban areas, as shortages of theseimportant items inevitably leads to social stress and civil disorders.There are varying opinions of food production’s ability to maintain an increasing annual globalpopulation rate of 1.18% (range -0.85% to +3.69%) estimated for 2009 (CIA documentation) and ingeneral, the opinions tend to be pessimistic and as has already been seen; in some developingcountries food riots have caused fatalities and in some developed countries restrictions made on bulkpurchases of dry foods.With the global recession expected to last for a number of years, with a longer lasting effect ondeveloping countries and a general downturn in manufacturing, the effect on the urban communitieswill ensure that these remain filled with the low income and impoverished families, only to declinefurther, as the ripple effect or the recession increases.With less employment, higher priced food, less access to clean water, higher cost health services,inability to afford school costs and a reduction on expenditure in social services and infrastructuremaintenance, there can be little doubt that these communities are a severe threat to civil disorder andthat governments may have to take severe responses in order to control threat situations.