THE FIELD POLL

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release #2452 CHRIS CHRISTIE MUCH BETTER LIKED IN CALIFORNIA THAN OTHER POTENTIAL GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. TEA PARTY SEEN AS A DRAG ON GOP CANDIDATES' ELECTION CHANCES. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

Release Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2013 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

California voters have a much more favorable impression of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie than four other prominent Republicans considered to be possible 2016 presidential contenders. They include former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and U.S. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida. Nearly half of all Golden State voters (47%) hold a favorable view of Christie, while just 19% view him unfavorably. Another 34% have no opinion. By comparison, pluralities of Californians view each of the four other potential GOP candidates more unfavorably than favorably. Christie benefits from being the only GOP presidential contender who not only has a favorable image among fellow Republicans but also among the state's Democrats and independent voters. In addition, when voters are asked whether they believe the Tea Party's influence on the Republican Party strengthens or weakens the GOP's election chances, by a nearly four to one margin voters see it having a negative impact. These are the highlights from the latest statewide Field Poll just concluded. Image ratings of GOP 2016 presidential possibilities In this survey all registered voters were asked to describe their overall impressions of five prominent Republicans, Christie, Jeb Bush, Cruz, Paul and Rubio, who have been getting early attention as possible candidates for their party's presidential nomination in 2016. Among the overall California electorate, only one, Christie, is viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with 47% holding a positive impression and 19% a negative impression. About one in three (34%) have no opinion.

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Impressions of Jeb Bush are 29% favorable, 33% unfavorable, with 38% having no opinion. Voter opinions of Cruz are 24% positive, 37% negative, and 39% with no opinion. Somewhat larger proportions of California voters, about half, do not have an impression of either Rubio or Paul. In Rubio's case 22% of voters view him favorably, 26% unfavorably and 52% have no opinion. Paul's image is quite similar, with 21% of voters offering a positive assessment, 29% negative and 50% no opinion. Table 1 Image ratings of Republicans viewed as possible presidential candidates in 2016 (among California registered voters) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Chris Christie, New Jersey Governor 47% 19 34 Jeb Bush, former Florida Governor Ted Cruz, Texas Senator Marco Rubio, Florida Senator Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator 29% 24% 22% 21% 33 37 26 29 38 39 52 50

Note: Field Poll measures for Christie, Bush and Cruz are based on findings from the current survey, while measures for Rubio and Paul are based on an earlier Field Poll survey completed in July 2013 among 846 California registered voters.

Image ratings by party Table 2 summarizes the image profiles of each potential GOP presidential candidate among voters of each party. All five of the possibilities are viewed quite favorably among rank-and-file Republican voters. Christie has the highest favorable rating 59% favorable vs. 13% unfavorable. Bush and Cruz are not far behind. For Bush it's 51% positive and 14% negative, while Cruz receives a 50% to 11% favorable to unfavorable assessment. Rubio and Paul also possess positive image profiles among Republican voters, but somewhat smaller proportions hold favorable impressions of each and larger proportions have no opinion. Christie is the only Republican who also possesses a favorable image among Democrats and independent voters. About four in ten Democrats (40%) and independents (44%) view Christie favorably, while about half as many offer an unfavorable assessment. Each of the other four GOP possibilities are viewed more unfavorably than favorably by this state's Democrats and independents. This is particular true with regard to Cruz. Almost five times as many Democrats view him negatively (52%) as positively (11%), while among independents he receives a greater than two-to-one negative assessment (42% vs. 19%).

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Table 2 Image ratings of Republican presidential possibilities in 2016 by party registration (among California registered voters) Party registration Total registered No party voters Democrats Republicans pref./other Chris Christie Favorable 47% 40% 59% 44% Unfavorable 19 19 13 25 No opinion 34 41 28 31 Jeb Bush Favorable 29% 18% 51% 22% Unfavorable 33 38 14 44 No opinion 38 44 35 34 Ted Cruz Favorable 24% 11% 50% 19% Unfavorable 37 52 11 42 No opinion 39 37 39 39 Marco Rubio Favorable 22% 15% 39% 13% Unfavorable 26 33 12 29 No opinion 52 52 49 58 Rand Paul Favorable 21% 12% 36% 22% Unfavorable 29 40 14 28 No opinion 50 48 50 50
Note: Field Poll measures for Christie, Bush and Cruz are based on findings from the current survey, while measures for Rubio and Paul are based on an earlier Field Poll survey completed in July 2013 among 846 California registered voters.

Tea Party impact on U.S. politics The Tea Party is a populist conservative movement primarily known for advocating a reduction in U.S. government spending and taxes. Since 2009 it has sponsored protests and supported political candidates, and is considered part of the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Currently about forty-eight of the 435 members of the House of Representatives and five of the 100 U.S. Senators all Republicans are Tea Partiers. Many political observers feel that the increased polarization of the U.S. Congress is at least partly a result of the influence of the Tea Party. In this survey voters were asked whether they felt the Tea Party has had a positive or negative impact on politics and whether its influence on the Republican Party strengthens or weakens the GOP's election chances.

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The results show that more than twice as many Californians (47%) see the Tea Party as having a negative impact on politics as have a positive impact (20%). Of the rest, 24% do not see it having much impact, while 9% have no opinion. Democrats and independents are overwhelmingly of the view that the Tea Party is having a more negative than positive impact on American politics, with just 10% seeing a positive effect and majorities saying it is having a negative impact. By contrast, by a two-to-one margin (43% to 21%) Republicans view the Tea Party as having a more positive than negative impact. Table 3 Perceived impact that the Tea Party is having on American politics (among California registered voters) Positive impact Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other 20% 10% 43% 10% Negative Not much impact impact 47 60 21 52 24 18 32 26 No opinion 9 12 4 12

Tea Party's influence on GOP candidates' election chances A large majority of California voters (65%) believe the Tea Party's influence on the GOP weakens the Republican party's chances in next year's congressional elections. Democrats and independents are very one-sided in this belief, with over seven in ten seeing it weakening the GOP. Even Republican voters, by a 48% to 33% margin, believe the Tea Party is undermining the GOP's chances of winning Congressional seats in next year's elections. Table 4 Does the Tea Party's influence on the Republican party strengthen or weaken its chances in next year's Congressional election (among California registered voters) Strengthens Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other 18% 11% 33% 12% Weakens 65 72 48 73 No opinion 17 17 19 15

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Voter identification with the Tea Party Voters were also asked to what degree they personally identified with the Tea Party movement. Just 7% of California voters say they identify with it a lot, while 30% have some identification with it. This compares to 63% of California voters who report no identification with the Tea Party. In the case of Democrats just 2% identify with the Tea Party a lot, 18% have some identification and 80% no identification. The division is similar among independents, with 4% identifying with it a lot, 24% expressing some identification and 72% having no identification. However, among GOP voters the pattern is quite different. While a relatively small proportion of California Republicans (17%) identifies a lot with the Tea Party, a majority (54%) reports having some identification with it. Table 5 Trend of voter identification with the Tea Party (among California registered voters) Identify A lot 7% 5% 10% 10% 13% 2% 17% 4% Some 30 25 29 24 17 18 54 24 Not at all/ No opinion 63 70 61 66 70 80 29 72

December 2013 February 2013 February 2012 2011 (average) 2010 (average) Party registration (December 2013) Democrats Republicans No party preference/others

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Information About The Survey Methodological Details The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed November 14-December 2, 2013 among 826 registered voters in California. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible voter fatigue, some of the questions in this report were asked of a random subsample of 464 registered voters statewide. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation's central location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter from the state's registered voter rolls on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voter's landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings from the random subsample have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked How much do you personally identify with the Tea Party movement a lot, some or not at all? Do you think that the Tea Party's influence on the Republican Party strengthens or weakens the party's chances in next year's Congressional elections?* Do you feel the Tea Party movement has had a positive impact on American politics, a negative impact or not much impact?* I am going to read the names of some people who are in public affairs and politics. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of (NAME AND TITLE) favorable or unfavorable? (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER)*

* Question asked of a random subsample of 464 registered voters statewide. All other questions asked of the overall sample of 826 registered voters.