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Field Poll - Chris Christie and California Voters

Field Poll - Chris Christie and California Voters

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Published by KQED News
Dec. 4, 2013, Field Poll finds Calif. voters have a much more favorable impression of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than other potential 2016 Republican presidential nominees.
Dec. 4, 2013, Field Poll finds Calif. voters have a much more favorable impression of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than other potential 2016 Republican presidential nominees.

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Published by: KQED News on Dec 04, 2013
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12/29/2013

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 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL
 BY
MERVIN FIELD
 
Field Research Corporation
601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline
Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer  
THE FIELD POLL
Release #
2452
Release Date:
Wednesday, December 4, 2013CHRIS CHRISTIE MUCH BETTER LIKED IN CALIFORNIA THAN OTHER POTENTIAL GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. TEA PARTY SEEN AS A DRAG ON GOP CANDIDATES' ELECTION CHANCES.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff  prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field California voters have a much more favorable impression of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie than four other prominent Republicans considered to be possible 2016 presidential contenders. They include former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and U.S. Senators Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida.  Nearly half of all Golden State voters (47%) hold a favorable view of Christie, while just 19% view him unfavorably. Another 34% have no opinion. By comparison, pluralities of Californians view each of the four other potential GOP candidates more unfavorably than favorably. Christie benefits from being the only GOP presidential contender who not only has a favorable image among fellow Republicans but also among the state's Democrats and independent voters. In addition, when voters are asked whether they believe the Tea Party's influence on the Republican Party strengthens or weakens the GOP's election chances, by a nearly four to one margin voters see it having a negative impact. These are the highlights from the latest statewide
Field Poll
 just concluded.
Image ratings of GOP 2016 presidential possibilities
In this survey all registered voters were asked to describe their overall impressions of five  prominent Republicans, Christie, Jeb Bush, Cruz, Paul and Rubio, who have been getting early attention as possible candidates for their party's presidential nomination in 2016. Among the overall California electorate, only one, Christie, is viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with 47% holding a positive impression and 19% a negative impression. About one in three (34%) have no opinion.
 
The Field Poll #2452 Wednesday, December 4, 2013 Page 2
Impressions of Jeb Bush are 29% favorable, 33% unfavorable, with 38% having no opinion. Voter opinions of Cruz are 24% positive, 37% negative, and 39% with no opinion. Somewhat larger proportions of California voters, about half, do not have an impression of either Rubio or Paul. In Rubio's case 22% of voters view him favorably, 26% unfavorably and 52% have no opinion. Paul's image is quite similar, with 21% of voters offering a positive assessment, 29% negative and 50% no opinion.
Table 1 Image ratings of Republicans viewed as possible presidential candidates in 2016 (among California registered voters) Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
 
Chris Christie, New Jersey Governor 47% 19 34 Jeb Bush, former Florida Governor 29% 33 38 Ted Cruz, Texas Senator 24% 37 39 Marco Rubio, Florida Senator 22% 26 52 Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator 21% 29 50
 Note: Field Poll measures for Christie, Bush and Cruz are based on findings from the current survey, while measures for Rubio and Paul are based on an earlier Field Poll survey completed in July 2013 among 846 California registered voters.
Image ratings by party
Table 2 summarizes the image profiles of each potential GOP presidential candidate among voters of each party. All five of the possibilities are viewed quite favorably among rank-and-file Republican voters. Christie has the highest favorable rating – 59% favorable vs. 13% unfavorable. Bush and Cruz are not far behind. For Bush it's 51% positive and 14% negative, while Cruz receives a 50% to 11% favorable to unfavorable assessment. Rubio and Paul also possess positive image  profiles among Republican voters, but somewhat smaller proportions hold favorable impressions of each and larger proportions have no opinion. Christie is the only Republican who also possesses a favorable image among Democrats and independent voters. About four in ten Democrats (40%) and independents (44%) view Christie favorably, while about half as many offer an unfavorable assessment. Each of the other four GOP possibilities are viewed more unfavorably than favorably by this state's Democrats and independents. This is particular true with regard to Cruz. Almost five times as many Democrats view him negatively (52%) as positively (11%), while among independents he receives a greater than two-to-one negative assessment (42% vs. 19%).
 
The Field Poll #2452 Wednesday, December 4, 2013 Page 3
Table 2 Image ratings of Republican presidential possibilities in 2016 by party registration(among California registered voters) Party registration Total registered voters Democrats Republicans No party pref./other
 
Chris Christie
Favorable 47% 40% 59% 44% Unfavorable 19 19 13 25  No opinion 34 41 28 31
Jeb Bush
Favorable 29% 18% 51% 22% Unfavorable 33 38 14 44  No opinion 38 44 35 34
Ted Cruz
Favorable 24% 11% 50% 19% Unfavorable 37 52 11 42  No opinion 39 37 39 39
Marco Rubio
Favorable 22% 15% 39% 13% Unfavorable 26 33 12 29  No opinion 52 52 49 58
Rand Paul
Favorable 21% 12% 36% 22% Unfavorable 29 40 14 28  No opinion 50 48 50 50
 Note: Field Poll measures for Christie, Bush and Cruz are based on findings from the current survey, while measures for Rubio and Paul are based on an earlier Field Poll survey completed in July 2013 among 846 California registered voters.
Tea Party impact on U.S. politics
The Tea Party is a populist conservative movement primarily known for advocating a reduction in U.S. government spending and taxes. Since 2009 it has sponsored protests and supported political candidates, and is considered part of the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Currently about forty-eight of the 435 members of the House of Representatives and five of the 100 U.S. Senators – all Republicans – are Tea Partiers. Many political observers feel that the increased polarization of the U.S. Congress is at least partly a result of the influence of the Tea Party. In this survey voters were asked whether they felt the Tea Party has had a positive or negative impact on politics and whether its influence on the Republican Party strengthens or weakens the GOP's election chances.

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