Professional Documents
Culture Documents
04 December 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued ....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Over
Valued ......................................................................6
Automobiles & Parts
Over Valued .........................................................................................6
Banks
Under Valued ...................................................................................6
Beverages
Under Valued ..................................................................................7
Chemicals
Under Valued ......................................7
Construction - Building Materials & Fittings
Construction - Heavy Construction
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Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
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04 December 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVON RUBBER
574.50
351.00
586.50
Neutral
Sell
474
0.62
BAE SYSTEMS
416.30
327.40
468.00
Neutral
Buy
571
0.59
CHEMRING GROUP
205.90
187.00
321.10
Neutral
Buy
300
0.48
COBHAM
259.90
209.60
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
268
0.81
MEGGITT
476.90
382.30
572.50
Neutral
Neutral
466
1.09
QINETIQ GROUP
211.80
179.00
217.50
Neutral
Sell
129
0.53
1200.00
844.17
1247.00
Neutral
Buy
1424
0.98
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
SENIOR
Target
Beta
283.00
194.20
300.00
Neutral
Sell
251
1.47
SMITHS GROUP
1348.00
1107.00
1455.00
Neutral
Neutral
1372
0.62
1754.00
1571.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1576
0.41
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
367.00
222.10
383.60
Neutral
Sell
Target
-1160
Beta
1.79
INCHCAPE
580.50
428.80
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2263
1.34
LOOKERS
120.75
73.00
131.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
501
1.09
PENDRAGON
36.00
14.50
39.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
195
0.77
TOROTRAK
20.00
20.00
35.50
Neutral
Sell
0.70
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
266.20
225.21
308.39
Neutral
Sell
-658
1.86
668.40
636.20
769.90
Neutral
Buy
813
1.32
78.00
45.96
80.37
Sell
Sell
1.86
331.00
266.10
384.90
Neutral
Sell
-120
1.31
STANDARD CHARTERED
1431.00
1395.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3262
1.69
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARR (AG)
544.00
475.10
588.50
Neutral
Sell
435
0.63
BRITVIC
673.00
386.00
679.00
Sell
Buy
881
0.82
DIAGEO
1908.50
1787.00
2136.50
Neutral
Buy
2313
0.58
SABMILLER
3070.50
2780.00
3657.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5175
0.91
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Target
Beta
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Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
340.80
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3351
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
263.50
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.04
CARCLO
280.00
269.25
501.00
Neutral
Sell
103
0.62
2301.00
2251.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3136
1.00
252.90
210.20
275.00
Neutral
Neutral
274
0.98
1.28
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
3114.00
2201.00
3268.00
Neutral
Buy
3511
VICTREX
1559.00
1459.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1269
1.12
SYNTHOMER
229.30
177.40
257.80
Neutral
Buy
330
0.81
ZOTEFOAMS
182.50
180.50
224.00
Neutral
Buy
256
0.94
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
126.50
82.00
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
442
Beta
0.43
1471.00
1143.00
1617.00
Neutral
Sell
1053
1.15
71.25
50.00
80.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
544
0.82
MARSHALLS
171.00
97.50
184.00
Neutral
Neutral
176
1.25
NORCROS
22.13
13.00
22.13
Sell
Strong Buy
217
0.81
206.40
113.20
216.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
964
1.48
49.50
22.00
50.00
Sell
Sell
40
0.92
1723.00
1060.00
1858.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
15012
1.79
SIG
TITON HOLDINGS
TRAVIS PERKINS
TYMAN
WOLSELEY
236.00
143.13
241.00
Neutral
Neutral
225
0.98
3186.00
2794.01
3480.52
Neutral
Strong Buy
10185
1.33
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BALFOUR BEATTY
257.80
207.60
291.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1112
0.62
BOOT (HENRY)
207.00
133.00
213.00
Neutral
Sell
115
0.50
CARILLION
294.30
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Buy
370
0.87
CLARKE (T)
65.00
45.75
72.25
Neutral
Buy
85
0.62
COSTAIN GROUP
Target
Beta
285.00
240.75
306.00
Neutral
Buy
413
0.40
GALLIFORD TRY
1098.00
707.50
1157.00
Neutral
Sell
832
0.82
KELLER
1021.00
635.00
1161.00
Neutral
Sell
534
1.21
KIER GROUP
1730.00
1144.00
1830.00
Neutral
Sell
1590
0.82
763.50
510.00
839.50
Neutral
Buy
994
0.70
133.00
95.00
149.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
0.04
41.00
23.00
41.00
Sell
Sell
-9
0.47
POCHIN'S
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
322.50
195.00
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1017
1.55
BELLWAY
1404.00
999.50
1534.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8611
1.05
2284.00
1634.00
2450.00
Neutral
Sell
-1993
0.54
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
758.00
550.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
24031
1.08
346.00
220.00
387.00
Neutral
Sell
-313
#NA
0.26
340.00
167.50
354.75
Neutral
Sell
150
1140.00
731.96
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3863
1.03
REDROW
271.20
158.40
288.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
420
1.08
TAYLOR WIMPEY
104.00
61.50
114.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
803
1.45
PERSIMMON
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
DIALIGHT
905.00
897.00
1399.00
Neutral
Buy
1123
0.48
685.00
560.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
941
0.93
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
153.25
107.00
163.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
307
1.28
INVENSYS
495.00
316.94
509.50
Neutral
Sell
310
1.24
LAIRD
247.00
171.10
261.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
477
1.87
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1500.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1227
1.13
RENISHAW
1821.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2213
1.15
SPECTRIS
2410.00
1834.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
3019
1.38
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
171.00
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-462
0.66
TT ELECTRONICS
194.50
140.00
202.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
464
1.44
1025.00
264.00
1025.00
Neutral
Sell
446
0.81
XAAR
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
148.00
66.63
150.25
Neutral
Buy
166
0.82
BODYCOTE
601.50
411.30
685.00
Neutral
Neutral
623
1.44
CASTINGS
437.00
312.00
455.50
Neutral
Buy
555
0.83
VESUVIUS
472.00
303.13
496.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1741
2.30
FENNER
451.20
305.90
457.10
Neutral
Buy
560
1.25
HALMA
580.00
436.80
594.50
Neutral
Sell
387
0.76
530.00
393.00
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
545
1.14
1438.00
1050.00
1563.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3710
1.23
287.80
240.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
489
1.66
2688.00
2477.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2069
0.90
62.75
35.40
65.50
Sell
Sell
-33
0.71
2863.00
2200.02
3090.00
Neutral
Sell
1721
0.65
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
Target
Beta
VITEC GROUP
632.00
559.00
726.00
Neutral
Sell
497
1.00
WEIR GROUP
2083.00
1787.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2247
1.03
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
430.70
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Neutral
Target
470
0.46
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
259.80
248.60
302.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
0.38
SAINSBURY (J)
395.90
321.90
414.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
719
0.47
TESCO
341.60
326.00
387.75
Buy
Sell
290
0.66
THORNTONS
133.50
34.00
137.00
Neutral
Sell
108
0.79
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
2286.00
1465.00
2351.00
Neutral
Sell
1695
0.63
CRANSWICK
1137.00
782.00
1189.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1802
0.34
DAIRY CREST
511.00
369.60
539.00
Neutral
Sell
433
0.76
DEVRO
290.00
285.50
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
489
0.32
PREMIER FOODS
122.75
59.75
185.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.17
786.50
736.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1319
0.61
2418.00
2319.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2070
0.58
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
27.00
24.00
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
49
0.59
535.00
357.50
577.00
Neutral
Neutral
562
0.56
1480.00
1217.00
1667.00
Neutral
Sell
1349
1.13
540.00
540.00
700.00
Neutral
Sell
257
0.70
1.45
Target
Beta
50.75
26.31
51.45
Sell
Sell
44
257.25
108.00
261.50
Neutral
Sell
164
0.77
38.00
24.50
42.50
Sell
Sell
1.01
0.63
469.60
299.00
493.30
Neutral
Buy
639
1339.00
670.00
1380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2232
0.51
87.75
39.00
89.50
Neutral
Buy
131
1.00
KINGFISHER
365.20
268.90
420.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
588
0.97
472.30
359.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
807
0.56
73.25
53.50
75.00
Neutral
Buy
90
0.59
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
381.75
271.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
127
0.20
NEXT
5515.00
3640.00
5540.00
Sell
Neutral
5772
0.71
TED BAKER
2128.00
1017.00
2128.00
Strong Sell
Sell
1132
0.58
TOPPS TILES
123.25
48.88
125.75
Neutral
Sell
90
1.35
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
135.50
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
106
0.30
CONSORT MEDICAL
878.50
660.50
914.00
Neutral
Sell
668
0.11
OPTOS
176.00
106.75
215.25
Neutral
Neutral
177
0.97
828.50
666.00
828.50
Neutral
Sell
712
0.34
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
730.00
601.00
823.50
Neutral
Neutral
717
HEADLAM GROUP
402.25
302.50
415.00
Neutral
Buy
446
0.80
85.00
64.00
87.50
Sell
Sell
53
0.63
HORNBY
Target
ARM HOLDINGS
CSR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
0.34
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1003.00
743.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
425
Beta
0.68
497.20
332.00
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1416
0.97
58.75
33.38
83.25
Neutral
Buy
67
0.90
242.20
235.10
552.00
Neutral
Sell
205
0.95
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
104.50
100.80
169.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
0.71
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
146.50
136.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-33
0.83
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1195.00
1115.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-645
0.59
AMLIN
429.90
373.40
453.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1670
0.51
BEAZLEY
243.70
174.20
247.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1032
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
532.00
457.50
552.50
Neutral
Sell
499
0.31
0.52
ADMIRAL GROUP
HISCOX
655.00
463.32
689.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2064
1016.00
757.50
1028.00
Sell
Buy
1280
0.34
102.90
102.20
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
801
0.33
NOVAE GROUP
580.00
366.50
601.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3764
0.35
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2199.00
2030.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3130
0.90
ENTERPRISE INNS
140.00
90.50
157.80
Neutral
Sell
113
1.30
TUI TRAVEL
371.50
274.90
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
649
1.00
967.00
753.25
1010.00
Neutral
Sell
768
0.07
GREENE KING
851.00
615.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
621
0.69
LADBROKES
168.10
167.40
243.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
315
0.85
1893.00
1644.00
2039.00
Neutral
Buy
2111
1.01
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
584.50
485.00
615.50
Neutral
Sell
542
1.29
402.50
296.00
460.00
Neutral
Sell
248
0.77
123.40
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
41
1.13
10.50
6.70
15.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
44
1.01
139.00
137.30
177.50
Neutral
Neutral
147
0.92
0.64
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
570.00
364.00
581.00
Neutral
Sell
457
WETHERSPOON (JD)
690.00
493.80
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
729
0.58
WHITBREAD
3523.00
2380.00
3576.00
Neutral
Sell
2423
1.03
WILLIAM HILL
387.10
309.42
494.50
Neutral
Neutral
423
0.68
MARSTON'S
150.10
118.80
165.50
Neutral
Sell
-16
0.83
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
419.50
294.10
449.10
Neutral
Sell
391
1.16
CHESNARA
298.00
188.00
304.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
557
0.55
207.30
144.20
217.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
528
1.77
OLD MUTUAL
189.20
170.80
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
421
1.43
PRUDENTIAL
1256.00
865.00
1307.00
Neutral
Neutral
1254
1.67
627.00
397.90
679.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7270
0.80
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
Target
Beta
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 10 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
172.00
102.00
180.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.47
793.50
761.00
950.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.41
55.25
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.00
900.00
534.00
915.50
Sell
Strong Buy
3556
1.11
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
1245.00
797.00
1265.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.75
INFORMA
544.50
431.70
568.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.44
ITE GROUP
299.80
210.20
322.30
Neutral
Buy
201
1.23
ITV
185.00
101.20
195.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.42
14.50
11.75
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1.03
0.66
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
1332.00
1119.00
1365.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
PHOTO-ME INTL.
143.50
54.50
147.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.83
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
322.50
269.00
322.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
#NA
THOMSON REUTERS
39.88
27.52
40.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.47
STV GROUP
306.50
100.00
330.00
Neutral
Sell
240
0.80
ST.IVES
182.25
100.00
188.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.26
TRINITY MIRROR
184.00
85.50
185.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.52
UBM
672.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.28
226.75
141.88
227.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1390
0.72
1317.00
858.00
1371.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.23
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
GLENCORE XSTRATA
LONMIN
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1301.00
1207.00
2072.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
1440
Beta
1.72
194.00
161.00
289.00
Neutral
Neutral
202
0.94
1.38
754.00
754.00
1381.00
Neutral
Buy
830
1801.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2148
1.44
304.30
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
928
#NA
303.50
253.50
380.10
Neutral
Buy
371
1.67
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4017.00
3972.00
6480.00
Neutral
Sell
2787
0.46
RIO TINTO
3200.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2174
1.42
847.50
847.50
1335.00
Buy
Strong Buy
2685
2.22
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1225.00
1007.50
1283.00
Neutral
Sell
876
0.80
BP
473.60
424.30
493.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
988
1.21
CAIRN ENERGY
271.40
251.80
296.10
Neutral
Sell
-39
1.18
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
Target
Beta
9.48
5.44
10.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.69
775.00
726.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
572
1.13
71.75
48.50
79.75
Neutral
Sell
-59
1.01
300.10
300.10
400.20
Buy
Buy
395
1.43
2106.50
2077.50
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8128
0.91
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
392.50
314.63
417.00
Neutral
Neutral
382
0.54
TULLOW OIL
854.00
854.00
1292.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.97
754.00
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
709
1.22
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 11 of
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
107.75
98.05
140.38
Neutral
Buy
148
1.00
PZ CUSSONS
384.80
338.50
432.50
Neutral
Sell
324
0.57
4865.00
3879.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
5027
0.35
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.34
0.30
3.43
Buy
Sell
-1
0.76
3506.50
2909.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
10544
0.55
BTG
551.00
317.50
559.50
Neutral
Sell
285
0.37
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
678.00
575.00
780.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1426
0.10
1598.50
1335.00
1782.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2506
0.55
2.26
1.33
2.83
Buy
Sell
-2
0.40
IXICO
55.00
42.50
568.75
Neutral
Sell
-185
0.67
SHIRE
2680.00
1855.00
2858.00
Neutral
Sell
2131
0.70
110.00
43.50
119.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
182
0.61
33.50
19.38
34.25
Neutral
Sell
13
0.69
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
470.00
337.50
489.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
796
1.19
BRITISH LAND
600.00
540.00
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
915
1.10
2396.00
2088.00
2574.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5405
1.20
571.00
472.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1219
1.05
HAMMERSON
500.00
470.50
554.00
Neutral
Buy
621
1.31
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
312.80
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
635
1.12
941.50
799.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1964
1.22
32.38
24.25
32.38
Neutral
Sell
-190
0.57
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
130.80
103.20
132.90
Neutral
Sell
-9
0.26
MCKAY SECURITIES
192.00
131.50
200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
0.46
499.75
350.25
515.00
Neutral
Sell
262
0.33
336.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
132
0.27
49.50
33.75
50.50
Neutral
Sell
-442
0.42
SEGRO
331.70
239.40
336.70
Neutral
Sell
-356
1.84
SHAFTESBURY
605.00
552.50
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
944
1.03
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
241.50
179.00
241.50
Sell
Sell
0.84
WORKSPACE GROUP
493.10
296.00
508.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1501
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 12 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
323.00
239.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
716
43.38
27.50
45.25
Neutral
Sell
-61
0.50
CLS HOLDINGS
1215.00
704.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3154
0.66
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4389.00
2930.00
4389.00
Sell
Strong Buy
15855
0.56
231.25
143.00
244.00
Neutral
Sell
215
1.03
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.69
GRAINGER
200.40
113.00
206.10
Neutral
Sell
120
1.67
HELICAL BAR
326.75
226.50
332.50
Neutral
Sell
228
0.89
40.50
21.50
43.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
0.56
7075.00
4662.50
7075.00
Sell
Strong Buy
19983
0.57
96.00
53.00
100.00
Sell
Sell
-234
1.07
RAVEN RUSSIA
80.00
61.50
80.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
222
1.39
641.00
445.00
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1161
0.65
89.50
72.50
91.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
0.26
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
352.10
221.50
361.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
688
1.59
UNITE GROUP
391.00
267.70
408.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1754
1.81
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
89.50
76.75
162.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
144
0.50
2181.00
2032.97
2650.00
Neutral
Sell
1516
1.34
COMPUTACENTER
640.00
387.01
670.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1468
0.85
KOFAX
390.00
260.75
395.75
Neutral
Sell
315
0.97
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
34.50
22.75
35.00
Sell
Sell
27
0.80
816.50
544.73
848.50
Neutral
Buy
1086
0.79
PHOENIX IT GROUP
132.50
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Sell
-308
0.49
RM
111.50
64.00
124.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
268
0.55
2136.00
1400.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2176
0.48
347.40
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
444
0.68
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
483.70
334.30
492.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1198
1.01
BREWIN DOLPHIN
280.60
185.00
287.20
Sell
Strong Buy
623
0.82
8600.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
78183
0.76
486.50
298.50
488.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1354
0.98
0.56
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
Target
Beta
235.00
155.00
235.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1573
1322.00
860.50
1348.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4580
0.87
90.00
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
80
0.53
CHARLES TAYLOR
5.20
1.42
5.70
Neutral
Sell
-115
0.65
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
206.50
120.50
223.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
751
1.15
ICAP
412.60
280.80
422.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
797
0.97
427.10
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2067
1.74
INVESTEC
413.00
384.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2458
1.60
1596.00
971.00
1682.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6345
1.11
85.70
73.65
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4465
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1548.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5191
0.70
SCHRODERS
2391.00
1630.00
2690.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7741
1.37
SCHRODERS NV
1891.00
1303.00
2217.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11074
1.32
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 13 of
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
354.13
170.62
373.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
617
0.76
AGGREKO
1585.00
1442.00
2254.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4252
0.99
AMEC
1097.00
965.50
1207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3179
0.95
673.50
380.90
730.00
Neutral
Buy
947
1.55
1294.00
965.50
1333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2492
0.22
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
Target
Beta
725.00
383.00
737.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2241
0.81
1371.00
1009.00
1414.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2650
0.49
UK MAIL GROUP
607.50
292.00
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1572
0.45
CAPITA
990.00
754.00
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1826
0.55
56.00
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
423
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
914.50
723.00
938.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1909
0.69
BERENDSEN
902.00
576.00
980.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3278
0.95
DE LA RUE
913.00
823.50
1046.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2224
#NA
DIGNITY
1333.00
1006.79
1567.68
Neutral
Buy
1743
0.08
DIPLOMA
687.00
488.30
734.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1296
0.94
ELECTROCOMP.
280.60
204.30
301.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
856
1.00
ESSENTRA PLC
802.00
543.00
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1237
1.05
G4S
261.10
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
883
0.40
HAYS
119.80
77.25
125.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
376
0.97
HOMESERVE
264.70
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
904
0.88
INTERSERVE
635.00
357.00
657.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3012
0.90
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
INTERTEK GROUP
3001.00
2922.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4303
0.72
48.75
33.63
53.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
0.93
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.63
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
181
0.45
MENZIES (JOHN)
769.00
597.00
841.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1933
1.17
459.90
356.00
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
779
1.19
MITIE GROUP
305.30
248.00
317.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
995
0.47
40.00
33.75
126.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
634
0.08
1054.00
814.50
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1809
0.74
PREMIER FARNELL
212.90
174.50
238.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
544
1.35
REGUS
193.90
96.40
214.10
Neutral
Sell
67
1.30
RENTOKIL INITIAL
106.70
87.00
112.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
434
1.13
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
REXAM
487.50
437.98
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1737
0.94
RICARDO
588.00
359.00
661.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1809
0.99
ROBERT WALTERS
316.50
193.00
336.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
921
1.04
RPC GROUP
506.00
378.00
517.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1570
0.71
RPS GROUP
311.20
195.50
313.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
880
1.31
SERCO GROUP
445.20
418.60
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2159
0.57
SHANKS GROUP
108.00
73.00
110.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
352
1.43
51.75
34.75
70.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
324
1.01
176.00
97.25
206.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
515
0.45
79.25
47.75
87.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
312
0.78
VP
566.50
313.00
566.50
Sell
Strong Buy
2205
0.42
WYG
108.50
71.00
111.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
192
0.62
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 14 of
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
366.90
231.10
382.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
477
0.76
47.40
35.35
48.35
Neutral
Strong Buy
89
0.55
671.00
584.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
274
0.49
98.50
69.30
105.10
Neutral
Buy
140
0.86
1771.00
861.99
1929.00
Neutral
Sell
971
0.04
225.80
154.45
234.35
Neutral
Sell
148
0.45
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
326.50
213.40
343.60
Neutral
Sell
215
1.14
516.75
350.00
559.00
Neutral
Neutral
544
0.91
CLARKSON
1941.00
1150.00
2370.00
Neutral
Sell
1217
0.30
EASYJET
1386.00
727.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
826
0.78
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
113.00
92.00
182.47
Sell
Strong Buy
261
0.72
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1162.00
783.75
1162.00
Sell
Sell
761
0.49
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1600.00
1232.00
1738.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2850
0.85
NATIONAL EXPRESS
256.40
175.20
274.90
Neutral
Sell
236
1.17
NORTHGATE
430.00
254.25
458.75
Neutral
Sell
343
1.07
STAGECOACH GROUP
358.40
286.50
369.80
Neutral
Buy
459
0.75
WINCANTON
120.25
43.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
286
0.86
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
337.00
331.60
402.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
524
0.51
NATIONAL GRID
764.00
682.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
893
0.52
PENNON GROUP
631.00
601.00
727.50
Neutral
Sell
522
0.63
SSE
1326.00
1320.00
1676.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2398
0.33
SEVERN TRENT
1703.00
1550.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1376
0.42
651.50
649.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
688
0.57
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
Target
Beta
04 December 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 15 of
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
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Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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