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2014 NY Governor Race Analysis

2014 NY Governor Race Analysis

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Published by Casey Seiler
From Assemblyman Bill Nojay
From Assemblyman Bill Nojay

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Published by: Casey Seiler on Dec 04, 2013
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Bill Nojay / Dec 3, 2013 / Docs:Civic:2014
2014 NY Governor Race Analysis I. How a GOP Candidate Can Beat Cuomo
With the benefit of the 2010 & 2013 turnout and contested race results in NYC and Upstate, a generic GOP Gov candidate can win in 2014 with the following % of the vote and estimated turnouts: Upstate: Turnout 52.3% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote : 62% (+2.8 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race) Suburbs: Turnout 47.4% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote: 55% (+2.35 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race)  NYC: Turnout: 34.5% (+5.0 points Relative to 2010) GOP % of Vote: 30% (+3.01 points Relative to 2010 Comptroller's Race )  Note: Generic GOP candidate does not have to win in NYC to win statewide. If he loses the city 70-30 (about 3 points swing off from the Lhota - DeBlasio results) he can still win if he runs  big Upstate and gets the projected turnout in the suburbs. If he slightly over performs a generic Republican in the City, wins the suburbs with high turnout and brings out the vote Upstate there is a real path to victory. Subject to polling shifts, the GOP candidate’s core issues will be: Long Island NYC Upstate Job creation Job creation Job creation Utility rates (neg on Cuomo) Education Property Taxes Property Taxes Home Rule Mandates/Home Rule Corruption in Albany Common Core Common Core Fracking A background theme in all regions will be seniors/middle class not able to afford to live in NY due to high taxes; working class & young people unable to find jobs.  Note: Home Rule could become the GOP candidate’s game-changer issue, both in Upstate (tie to mandates, education, farming, gun control) and NYC (with potential for bipartisan support; Peter Vallone Jr. has touched on the issue and it would fit into DeBlasio game plan). In the months  prior to launch, groundwork should be laid for broad, bipartisan support for major expansion of Home Rule/local government control.  Note: The Upstate-heavy anti-SAFE Act voters should be worth 300,000 - 500,000 new single-issue votes for anyone running against Cuomo if an aggressive voter registration/GOTV effort is launched by 2Q 2014. A candidate who is strong on 2A will attract those voters; it does not run the other way; there is little downside but 300,000 – 500,000 votes on the upside.
 
Bill Nojay / Dec 3, 2013 / Docs:Civic:2014
II. Who Can Run on the GOP Line and Beat Cuomo
-- There is only one prospective GOP candidate who could begin a race for Governor in the 1
st
 Quarter, 2014 and deliver the money and name i.d. necessary off the block: Donald Trump. -- Due to Dem statewide registration advantage, a GOP candidate must be nondenominational. In many respects Trump is not considered a Republican -- he is his own brand, an almost iconic figure of Rockefellerian proportions. This will benefit him because many people who could never bring themselves to vote for a Republican would vote for Trump as Trump. -- Trump is in a unique political place in NY politics: he has a NYC base and extraordinarily high NYC name i.d., but will pull strong Upstate assuming the campaign’s messaging focuses on the core issues. A key positive for Trump is the public perception that he does not pander to special interests, and will deliver on promises. This is Cuomo’s biggest weakness Upstate, where his 2010 promises re: mandates, jobs, taxes have not been fulfilled. -- Although Cuomo should have upwards of $50M in his campaign accounts by mid-2014, and that amount is beyond reach of any other GOP candidate, most of the $50+M which would  be required by other candidates would be devoted to name i.d. and issue identification. Trump already has more name i.d. than you can buy with $50M; his challenge would not be market penetration but issue identification. Campaign could be run with $30M. -- Trump is the only prospective GOP candidate with the will & resources to match the Cuomo, SEIU, Acorn field operations in NYC. -- Trump is right on the issues for NY in 2014: Upstate’s economy is a shambles; Cuomo is holding endless feel-good press conferences announcing new government econ development programs (e.g., tax free zones) which are gaining him little traction. Upstate, the SAFE Act (Cuomo’s anti-gun law) is the most hated  piece of legislation in NY’s modern political history, producing a new category of single- issue voters with the potential for 500,000 anti-Cuomo votes (Paladino lost in 2010 by 1.4 million).  NYC is about to see its first truly radical Mayor, a man who still reveres the Sandinistas, honeymooned in Havana, and self-describes as a believer in liberation theology (i.e., Marxism). He is joined by a considerably more Leftist City Council elected in 2013. While 2014 NYC politics will likely focus on social issues, taxes and relations with NYPD, no one will be focusing on jobs. Trump’s business experience and focus on creating jobs will carry with working class, young and new immigrant voters. LI’s economy is relatively strong however residents are faced with highest-in-the-nation taxes, highest-in-the-nation utility rates, etc. and there is an uneasy feeling things could unravel fast without a pro-business leader capable of aggressive moves in the event of a downturn. A campaign that focuses on “making the Empire State the nation’s leader in producing jobs” will resonate with skittish LI voters.

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