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Greenspan_20040211

Greenspan_20040211

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Published by: fedfraser on Dec 06, 2013
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12/06/2013

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For release on deliveryll:00
 a.m.EST
February 11,2004Statement ofAlan GreenspanChairmanBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systembefore theCommittee on Financial Services
U.S.
 House of RepresentativesFebruary 11,2004
 
Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, I am pleased to be here today to presentthe Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.When I testified before this committee in July, I reported that conditions had become agood deal more supportive of economic expansion over the previous few months. A notablereduction in geopolitical concerns, strengthening confidence in economic prospects, and animprovement in financial conditions boded well for spending and production over the secondhalf of the year. Still, convincing signs of a sustained acceleration in activity were not yet inevidence. Since then, the picture has brightened. The gross domestic product expandedvigorously over the second half of 2003 while productivity surged, prices remained stable, andfinancial conditions improved further. Overall, the economy has made impressive gains inoutput and real incomes; however, progress in creating jobs has been limited.Looking forward, the prospects are good for sustained expansion of the U.S. economy.The household sector's financial condition is stronger, and the business sector has madesubstantial strides in bolstering balance sheets. Narrowing credit risk spreads and a considerablerally in equity prices have reduced financing costs and increased household wealth, which shouldprovide substantial support for spending by businesses and households. With short-term realinterest rates close to zero, monetary policy remains highly accommodative. And it appears thatthe impetus from fiscal policy will stay expansionary, on net, through this year. Thesecircumstances all should spur the expansion of aggregate demand in 2004. At the same time,increases in efficiency and a significant level of underutilized resources should help keep a lid oninflation.In retrospect, last year appears to have marked a transition from an extended period ofsubpar economic performance to one of more vigorous expansion. Once again, household
 
spending was the mainstay, with real personal consumption spending increasing nearly 4 percentand real outlays on residential structures rising about 10 percent. Last year's reductions inpersonal income tax rates and the advance of rebates to those households that were eligible forthe expanded child tax credit boosted the growth of real disposable personal income. The verylow level of interest rates also encouraged household spending through a variety of channels.Automakers took advantage of low interest rates to offer attractive incentive deals, buoying thepurchase of new vehicles. The lowest home mortgage rates in decades were a major contributorto record sales of existing residences, engendering a large extraction of cash from home equity.A significant part of that cash supported personal consumption expenditures and homeimprovement. In addition, many households took out cash in the process of refinancing, oftenusing the proceeds to substitute for higher-cost consumer debt. That refinancing also permittedsome households to lower the monthly carrying costs for their homes and thus freed up funds forother expenditures. Not least, the low mortgage rates spurred sales and starts of new homes tovery high levels.These developments were reflected in household financing patterns. Home mortgagedebt increased about
 13
 percent last year, while consumer credit expanded much more slowly.Even though the ratio of overall household debt to income continued to increase, as it has formore than a half-century, the rise in home and equity prices enabled the ratio of household networth to disposable income to recover to a little above its long-term average. The low level ofinterest rates and large volume of mortgage refinancing activity helped reduce households'debt-service and financial-obligation ratios a bit. And many measures of consumer credit qualityimproved over the year, with delinquency rates on consumer loans and home mortgagesdeclining.

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