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LombardOdier 2014 Outlook : a Slow and Fragile Healing Process to Safeguard

LombardOdier 2014 Outlook : a Slow and Fragile Healing Process to Safeguard

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Published by Claude
Global growth still well below trend suggesting economies to reach escape velocity is premature.

Balanced positioning in terms of risk exposure with a medium term preference for equity risk over interest rate risk.
Looking to benefit from the important long term implied real return differential between equities, government bonds and cash.
Global growth still well below trend suggesting economies to reach escape velocity is premature.

Balanced positioning in terms of risk exposure with a medium term preference for equity risk over interest rate risk.
Looking to benefit from the important long term implied real return differential between equities, government bonds and cash.

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Categories:Business/Law
Published by: Claude on Dec 06, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/18/2014

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Investment Strategy Group
 A slow and fragile healing process to safeguard
Samy Chaar, PhD & Stephanie de TorquatInvestment Strategy GroupNovember 2013
 
Please see important information at the end of the document 
Investment Strategy
 
!
 
October 2013
 
!
 
Global leading economic indicator firming
Mid year economic soft patch is abating
GLOBAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR (PROXY FOR GLOBAL GROWTH)
OECD COUNTRIES PLUS 6 LARGEST NON MEMBERS, YOY%Global economic conditions are improving, a sign that the risk of global recession is currently low.
Source: Datastream, Lombard Odier calculation
Economy improvingEconomy slowing
 
Please see important information at the end of the document 
Investment Strategy
 
!
 
October 2013
 
!
 
Global manufacturing PMI improve
Developed markets firming, emerging markets less of a drag
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS - PMI
LEVEL (X-AXIS, CONTRACTING LINE IS 50) VS RATE OF CHANGE (Y-AXIS)PMIs are picking up implying little risk of contraction ahead, despite some regional divergences.
Contraction
Bottoming
ExpansionMaturing
Note: DM in blue / GEMs in brown; Source: Bloomberg, Lombard Odier calculation

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