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The Determinants of the Shadow Economy: the Case of Greece (2013)

The Determinants of the Shadow Economy: the Case of Greece (2013)

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Published by Makedonas Akritas
Μία πολύ καλή μελέτη για την φοροδιαφυγή ή την μαύρη οικονομία(Shadow Economy) στην Ελλάδα.
Μία πολύ καλή μελέτη για την φοροδιαφυγή ή την μαύρη οικονομία(Shadow Economy) στην Ελλάδα.

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Published by: Makedonas Akritas on Dec 07, 2013
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04/11/2014

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International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory, Vol. 6, No. 1, January 2013, 103610!"
 
The Determinants of the Shadow Economy: The Case of Greece  _____________________________________________________
George Manolas
*
 Kostas Rontos
**
George Sfakianakis
***
oannis !a"o#ras
****
 $%stract
Thi# $a$er aim# at a##e##ing the relati%e im$ortance of %ariou# factor# a# &ey determinant# of the #i'e of the #hado( economy in a #am$le of )*C+ countrie#. #ing $anel data for a grou$ of 1- countrie# for the 2003  200/ $eriod, (e find that the uality of go%ernance, the regulatory frame(or& in the $roduct, laor and credit mar&et# and the ta urden oth in the #en#e of the direct co#t on entre$reneurial acti%ity and the co#t of com$liance to the ta admini#tration frame(or&, are the mo#t im$ortant factor# affecting the $art of the economic acti%ity that ta&e# $lace out#ide the official #ector, that i# the #hado( or underground economy. The#e re#ult# are u#ed to e%aluate the $otential gain# reece could otain, in the ca#e it could con%erge to the  e#t $ractice or e%en to the a%erage le%el# of the determining factor# of the re#t of the )*C+ countrie#.
&'
 
ntrod#ction
The #hado( or hidden or underground economy ha# ecome a #u4ect of con#iderale academic intere#t only #ince the eginning of the 1-"0#. 5o(e%er, the literature on the mea#urement of the $henomenon for eam$le, 7lade# 839, :rey and ;ommerehne 8109, 8119, ile# 8139, Thoma# 8319, Schneider 8239 and Schneider, 7uehn and <ontenegro 82/9= a# (ell a# on it# determinant# for in#tance +e Soto 8"9, +reher and Schneider 8-9 and Singh, JainChandra and <ohommad 82-9= i# already %ery eten#i%e. >lthough the ree& authoritie# #tarted to gra#$ the $rolem of the ei#tence of a large #hado( economy in reece after 1--2, (hen the need of fi#cal con#olidation #tarted to e im$erati%e Va%oura# and ?ara%iti# 8339=, thi# i##ue returned in the e$icenter of the academic and $olitical intere#t during the current
@
 
5ellenic <ini#try of :inance. The %ie(# e$re##ed in thi# $a$er are #trictly $er#onal and do not nece##arily reflect tho#e of the 5ellenic <ini#try of :inance, emailAgeomanBmnec.gr.
@@
 +e$artment of Sociology, ni%er#ity of the >egean, emailA?.onto#B#oc.aegean.gr
@@@
 5ellenic <ini#try of :inance and Technological *ducational In#titute of Chal&i#. The %ie(# e$re##ed in thi# $a$er are #trictly $er#onal and do not nece##arily reflect tho#e of the 5ellenic <ini#try of :inance, emailA g#fa&Bmnec.gr
@@@@
+e$artment of ;ulic >dmini#tration, ;anteion ni%er#ity and o%ernance and Su#tainale +e%elo$ment Centre )S+*C=, emailA %a%oura#B$anteion.gr
1036
 
 
det cri#i# $eriod, (hen the ue#t for higher fi#cal re%enue# made the need for comating the ei#ting large #hado( economy and the a##ociated ta e%a#ion im$erati%e. The relati%e em$irical re#earch focu#ing on the ree& #hado( economy, e#$ecially on the mea#urement of the $henomenon i# al#o eten#i%e. Indicati%ely, (e could refer to the (or&# of ;a%lo$oulo# 8219, Negre$onti+eli%ani 8209, Va%oura#, ?ara%iti# and T#ouchlou 83!9, ?anelo$oulo#, ?ou##oula&o# and a$ano# 81"9, >ga$ito# and <a%ragani# 819, Schneider and *n#te 8269, <anola# and Va%oura# 81-9, Tat#o# et. al. 8309 and Schneider 82D9. The #hado( economy com$ri#e# all out$ut that goe# unre$orted and therefore i# EhiddenF from income ta. > $art of it $ertain# to legal acti%itie#, #uch a# tran#action#  et(een firm# and retailer# that are $aid Eoff the counterF, an agreement that enale# oth  $artie# to a%oid $aying tae#. The re#t i# the $roduct of illegal acti%itie#, #uch a# $ro#titution, drug traffic&ing and #o on. >ccording to Schneider, 7uehn, and <ontenegro 82/9, the Eunderground economy include# all mar&eta#ed legal $roduction of good# and #er%ice that are delierately concealed from $ulic authoritie# to a%oid the $ayment of income, %alue added or other tae#, to a%oid $ayment of #ocial #ecurity contriution#, ha%ing to meet certain legal laor mar&et #tandard#, #uch a# minimum (age#, maimum (or&ing hour#, and #afety #tandard#, and com$lying (ith certain admini#trati%e $rocedure#F. The $re#ent $a$er aim# at analy'ing em$irically the determinant# of the underground economy u#ing $anel data for 1- )*C+ countrie# for the 2003200/ $eriod. The em$irical re#ult# are u#ed for the e#timation of the $otential reduction of the #i'e of the ree& #hado( economy re#ulting from an im$ro%ement of it# determining factor#. The #tructure of the $a$er i# a# follo(#A in #ection 2 data for the #i'e of the underground economy in reece are  $re#ented, (hile in #ection 3 the factor# that theoretically determine the #i'e of the underground economy are analy'ed. In #ection ! em$irical e#timate# of the relation#hi$  et(een the hidden economy and it# determinant# are $re#ented, u#ing $anel data techniue#, (herea# #ection D #um# u$ the re#ult# of the #tudy and conclude#.
(' The Si)e of the Shadow Economy in Greece
The #i'e of the #hado( economy i# large in many countrie# all o%er the (orld. In Tale 1 e#timate# for the #i'e of the #hado( economy in #elected )*C+ countrie# are $re#ented. Thi# Tale i# a#ed on e#timate# of Schneider 82!9. In the area of )*C+, the #outhern countrie# reece, Italy, S$ain and ;ortugal=, $lu# 7elgium are e#timated to ha%e the highe#t rate of EhiddenF economic acti%itie#, ranging et(een the 2!30G of their recorded or official +;. The grou$ of countrie# characteri'ed y a #mall #i'e of #hado( economy include# countrie# (ith a relati%ely #mall $ulic #ector Ja$an, S> and S(it'erland= and countrie# (ith high ta EmoralityF S> and S(it'erland=.
103"
 
 
Ta%le &' The si)e of the #ndergro#nd economy in selected ECD co#ntries +, of GD-.
Co#ntry &/0/1/2 &///1(222 (2&2
>u#tria 6.- -./ /." 7elgium 1-.3 22.2 1".- +enmar& 10./ 1/.0 1!.! :rance -.0 1D.2 11." ermany 11./ 16.0 1!." reece 22.6 2/." 2D.2 Ireland 11.0 1D.- 13.2 Italy 22./ 2".1 22.2  Netherland# 11.- 13.1 10.3 ;ortugal 1D.- 22." 1-." S$ain 16.1 22." 1-./ S(eden 1D./ 1-.2 1D.6 .?. -.6 12." 11.1 S(it'erland 6." /.6 /.3 Canada 12./ 16.0 12." Ja$an /./ 11.2 -." S> 6." /." "./ SourceA Schneider 82!9.
># far a# reece i# concerned, all the ei#ting e#timate# for the #i'e of it# hidden economy, inde$endently of the method of e#timation and the $eriod of reference, #ho( that the unrecorded economic acti%itie# con#titute a high $ercentage of the official +;. Thi#  $ercentage, due to the current economic cri#i#, increa#ed initially u$ from 2!.3G of the recorded +; in 200/ to 2D.2G in 2010=, and then it i# e#timated to e decrea#ing do(n to 2!.3G in 2011 and 2!G in 2012=, a#ed on Schneider 82D9.
3' The Determinants of the Shadow Economy
The factor# that theoretically influence the #i'e of the #hado( economy in a gi%en country are numerou#. They could e di#tingui#hed to t(o a#ic categorie#A $urely economic factor#, and other factor#, #uch a# #ocial, $#ychological, admini#trati%e, and #o on. The relati%e im$ortance of each factor i# different at the le%el of each indi%idual country. In the re#t of thi# cha$ter, the mo#t im$ortant determinant# of the #hado( economy are analy'edA
 1
 
i. The tax burden.
It i# related to the urden cau#ed y the im$o#ition of tae# and #ocial #ecurity contriution#. It i# generally acce$ted that the increa#e of tae# and #ocial #ecurity contriution# i# one of the main factor#, and $erha$# the mo#t im$ortant one affecting the ri#e of the #hado( economy for eam$le, Schneider and *n#te 82"9=. It i# #traightfor(ard
1
 See al#o Va%oura# and <anola# 83D9, ch. 10. 103/

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