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Reliability for Begineers

Reliability for Begineers

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Published by: blitzrags on Aug 25, 2009
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Contents
1.
 
RELIABILITY MATHEMATICS 1
 
1.1.
 
A Brief Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistics 1
 
1.1.1.
 
Basic Definitions 1
 
1.1.2.
 
Probability Properties, Theorems and Axioms 2
 
1.1.2.1.
 
Mutually Exclusive Events 2
 
1.1.2.2.
 
Conditional Probability 2
 
1.1.2.3.
 
Independent Events 2
 
1.1.3.
 
Random Variable 3
 
1.2.
 
The Probability and Cumulative Density (Distribution) Functions 3
 
1.2.1.
 
Designations 3
 
1.2.2.
 
Definition 4
 
1.2.3.
 
Mathematical Relationship Between the pdf and cdf 5
 
1.2.4.
 
Mean Life (MTTF) 5
 
1.2.5.
 
Median Life 5
 
1.2.6.
 
Modal Life 6
 
1.3.
 
Statistical Distributions used in Reliability Analysis 6
 
1.3.1.
 
Exponential Distribution 8
 
1.3.2.
 
The Normal Distribution 10
 
1.3.3.
 
The Log-Normal Distribution 13
 
1.3.4.
 
The Weibull Distribution 15
 
2.
 
BURN IN 21
 
2.1.
 
Introduction 21
 
2.1.1.
 
Burn-In Definitions 21
 
2.1.2.
 
The Differences between Burn-In and Environmental Stress Screening (ESS) 22
 
2.2.
 
Burn-In Methods and Their Effectiveness 22
 
2.2.1.
 
Static Burn-In 22
 
2.2.2.
 
Dynamic Burn-in 23
 
2.2.3.
 
Test During Burn-In 23
 
2.2.4.
 
High-Voltage Stress Tests 24
 
2.3.
 
Burn-In Documents 26
 
2.4.
 
Burn-In Test Conditions Specified By MIL-STD-883C 26
 
2.5.
 
Test Temperature 29
 
2.6.
 
Reliability after Burn-In 30
 
2.6.1.
 
Residual MTTF 32
 
2.7.
 
A Physics of Failure Approach to IC Burn-In 32
 
2.7.1.
 
Burn-In Philosophy 33
 
2.7.2.
 
Problem with Present Approach to Burn-In 33
 
2.7.3.
 
A Physics- Of Failure Approach to Burn –In 38
 
2.7.3.1.
 
Understanding Steady –State Temperature Effects 38
 
2.7.3.2.
 
Setting up the Burn-in Profile 39
 
 
 ii
3.
 
RELIABILITY EVALUATION USING DATABOOKS 43
 
3.1.
 
MIL-HDBK-217 vs. HALT/HASS 43
 
3.1.1.
 
The Purpose of MIL-HDBK-217 43
 
3.1.2.
 
The Merit of HALT/HASS 44
 
3.1.3.
 
Why MIL-HDBK-217 Turns Out Inaccurate Predictions 46
 
3.1.4.
 
Conclusion 47
 
3.1.5.
 
References 48
 
3.2.
 
A New System-Reliability Assessment Methodology 49
 
3.2.1.
 
Abstract 49
 
3.2.2.
 
Background 50
 
3.2.2.1.
 
 Need for the Model 50
 
3.2.2.2.
 
Uses for Reliability Predictions 51
 
3.2.2.3.
 
Methodologies Used In Performing Predictions 51
 
3.2.3.
 
The Basis for a New Model 53
 
3.2.3.1.
 
Uncertainty in Traditional Approach Estimates 53
 
3.2.3.2.
 
System Failure Causes 54
 
3.2.3.3.
 
Model Description 55
 
3.2.3.4.
 
Initial Assessment 58
 
3.2.3.5.
 
Process Grading 58
 
3.2.3.6.
 
Adding Software Failure Rate 59
 
3.2.3.7.
 
Adding Failure Rate Due to Wearout Modes 62
 
3.2.3.8.
 
Logistic Failure Rate Contributions 62
 
3.2.3.9.
 
Adding Empirical Data 63
 
3.2.4.
 
Future Plans 64
 
3.2.5.
 
References 64
 
4.
 
RELIABILITY DESIGN IMPROVEMENT METHODS 67
 
4.1.
 
Introduction 67
 
4.2.
 
Derating 67
 
4.2.1.
 
Importance of Derating 67
 
4.2.2.
 
Effect of Derating On Part Stress Reliability Prediction 68
 
4.2.3.
 
Method of Derating 68
 
4.3.
 
Redundancy 69
 
4.3.1.
 
Active Parallel Redundancy 69
 
4.3.2.
 
Standby Redundancy 70
 
4.3.3.
 
K-out-of-M Redundancy 70
 
4.4.
 
Stress Reduction 71
 
4.4.1.1.
 
Reliability Growth Testing 72
 
4.4.2.
 
Duane Model 72
 
4.5.
 
Cumulative MTBF 74
 
4.5.1.
 
Alternate Duane Plot 74
 
4.5.2.
 
Limitations 74
 
5.
 
COST ANALYSIS 77
 
5.1.
 
Life Cycle Cost Analysis 77
 
5.1.1.
 
The Economics of Reliability and Maintainability and System Design 79
 
5.1.2.
 
Life-Cycle Cost Model 81
 
5.2.
 
Warranty Cost Analysis 84
 
 
 iii
6.
 
ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING DATA ANALYSIS 87
 
6.1.
 
Introduction 87
 
6.2.
 
Data and Data Types 89
 
6.2.1.
 
Complete Data 89
 
6.2.2.
 
Censored Data 89
 
6.2.2.1.
 
Censored Type I Data 90
 
6.2.2.2.
 
Censored Type II Data 90
 
6.2.2.3.
 
Multi-censored Data 91
 
6.3.
 
Stress Types and Stress Levels 91
 
6.4.
 
Life-Stress relationships 92
 
6.5.
 
Analyzing Data from Accelerated Life Tests 93
 
6.6.
 
How do you fit an acceleration model? 94
 
6.6.1.
 
Graphical Method 95
 
6.6.1.1.
 
Life Distribution Parameters at Each Stress Level 95
 
6.6.1.2.
 
Life Distribution Probability Plotting 95
 
6.6.1.3.
 
Determining the X and Y Position of the Plot Points 98
 
6.6.1.4.
 
Median Ranks 98
 
6.6.1.5.
 
Some Shortfalls of Manual Probability Plotting 99
 
6.6.1.6.
 
Life-Stress Relationship Plotting 99
 
6.6.1.7.
 
How to fit an Arrhenius Model with Graphical Estimation 103
 
6.6.1.8.
 
Comments on the Graphical Method 105
 
6.6.2.
 
MLE (Maximum Likelihood) Parameter Estimation 105
 
6.6.2.1.
 
Background Theory 106
 
6.6.2.2.
 
Illustrating the MLE Method Using the Exponential Distribution 107
 
6.6.2.3.
 
Illustrating the MLE Method Using the Normal Distribution 108
 
6.6.2.4.
 
Estimator 109
 
6.6.2.5.
 
Unbiased Estimator 109
 
6.6.3.
 
Conclusions 109
 
6.7.
 
Calculated Results and Plots 110
 
6.7.1.
 
Examples of Reporting for Parametric Data Analysis 112
 
6.7.1.1.
 
Probability Plot 112
 
6.7.1.2.
 
Reliability Function 112
 
6.7.1.3.
 
Probability Density Function 113
 
6.7.1.4.
 
Failure Rate Function 114
 
6.7.1.5.
 
Life vs. Stress Plot 114
 
6.7.1.6.
 
Reliability Growth 115
 
6.8.
 
Confidence Bounds 115
 
6.8.1.
 
One-Sided and Two-Sided Confidence Bounds 116
 
6.8.1.1.
 
Two-Sided Bounds 116
 
6.8.1.2.
 
One-Sided Bounds 116
 
6.8.1.3.
 
Electronic Devices Example 117
 
7.
 
HIGHLY ACCELERATED TESTING 127
 
7.1.
 
Introduction 127
 
7.2.
 
Why Things Fail? 127
 
7.2.1.
 
The Bathtub Curve 128
 
7.3.
 
The Purposes of HALT and HASS 129
 

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