1

:
.

+
.

.Residual Method
3

)x (
.

)x+n(

.
.

+,+
)x(

)x (

Survival Ratio Method :

 Forward Method :

()x

( )

279.1
0.94
-10
270.3
0.912
-20
279.7
0.902
-30
150.2
0.81
-40
102.8
0.76
-50
58.9
0.691
-60
24.6
0.472
-70
= 162.6
9

317.2
288.9
283.7
147.9
83.4
42.9
11.9

262.4
246.5
252.3
121.7
78.1
40.7
11.6

54.8
42.4
31.4
26.2
5.3
2.2
0.3

10

()x

( )

-10

0.94

279.1

-20

0.912

270.3

288.9

-30

0.902

279.7

283.7

314.5

-40

0.81

150.2

147.9

182.6

32.39

-50

0.76

102.8

83.4

109.7

6.937

-60

0.691

58.9

42.9

62.1

3.184

-70

0.472

24.6

11.9

25.2

0.612

= 182.77

11

317.2

337.4

58.35

316.8

46.48

34.82

12

-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70

0.94
0.912
0.902
0.81
0.76
0.691
0.472

54.8
42.4
31.4
26.2
5.3
2.2
0.3

1.032
1.048
1.054
1.117
1.158
1.224
1.559

56.5
44.4
33.1
29.3
6.1
2.7
0.5

13

14

-0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70

15

6217450
4938216
3591152
2466490
1879581
1054311
524657
-

5844403
4503653
3239219
1997857
1498791
497635
247634

0.94
0.912
0.902
0.81
0.76
0.691
0.472

16