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Premier League 0910 Betting Guide

Premier League 0910 Betting Guide

Ratings: (0)|Views: 287 |Likes:
Published by MarcusHowardson
An In-depth guide to the latest premier league season including analysis of every team and the best bets for you to be placing!
An In-depth guide to the latest premier league season including analysis of every team and the best bets for you to be placing!

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Published by: MarcusHowardson on Aug 28, 2009
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09/23/2010

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BETFAIR PREMIER LEAGUE EBOOK
CHAPTER LIST:
2...INTRODUCTION3...DOING YOUR HOMEWORK: STATS AND RESOURCES5...THE PREMIER LEAGUE WINNER MARKET ON BETFAIR7...THE PORTFOLIO APPROACH TO WINNING ON BETFAIR9...THE MATCH ODDS MARKETS11...THE OVER/UNDER 2.5 GOALS MARKET13...ASIAN HANDICAPS15...FIRST GOALSCORER AND TO SCORE MARKETS17...THE RELEGATION AND ROCK BOTTOM MARKETS19...SPREAD BETTING21...IN-RUNNING BETTING23...MULTIPLES BETTING
SEASON PREVIEWS:
25...ARSENAL26...ASTON VILLA27...BIRMINGHAM CITY28...BLACKBURN ROVERS29...BOLTON WANDERERS30...BURNLEY31...CHELSEA32...EVERTON33...FULHAM34...HULL CITY35...LIVERPOOL36...MANCHESTER CITY37...MANCHESTER UNITED38...PORTSMOUTH39...STOKE CITY40...SUNDERLAND41...TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR42...WEST HAM UNITED43...WIGAN ATHLETIC
44...WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Reader Offer: Free £25 Bet from Betfair. Join Today, CLICK BELOWClick Here To Join Today!
 
2
BETFAIR PREMIER LEAGUE EBOOK
INTRODUCTION
by James Pacheco
The best odds, thousands of markets and great liquidity – put simply, Betfair is the best place on theinternet to do your football betting.There are loads of football punters already on Betfair and this large community of punters is goodnews for you for two main reasons.Firstly, competition among layers is so strong that they usually have to offer you a slightly better pricethan anyone else if they are to get their bet matched. Market forces therefore ensure the Betfair priceis almost always bigger than those other bookmakers are offering. By the same token, there areplenty of people looking to back bets, which means you are always likely to find someone willing totake the opposite view to you.The second is that because so many people are on Betfair, there’s a lot of money waiting to bematched, especially on the more popular markets. High-street bookmakers very often limit the amountof money you can have on any given bet to a few hundred pounds, but on Betfair you can generallywager a few thousand on any big match odds or over/under 2.5 goals market, not to mention anywinner market amongst the major leagues.And if you’re happy to take a price that’s a couple of ticks shorter as a backer (or longer as a layer)there is plenty more waiting to be matched. When big Premier League or Champions League matchescome around it’s not unusual for there to be hundreds of thousands of pounds at a particular price oneither side of the bet – if those are the sort of figures you like to deal in!Betfair is also among the market leaders when it comes to offering in-play football markets. These aremarkets that you can bet on whilst a match is in progress and are available for every match played inthe Premier League, Champions League and many more.Though Betfair is not widely known for betting on ‘specials’, these are also available from time to time.Specials markets that always attract a lot of attention are Premier League “Next Manager” markets, somuch so that newspapers and websites often quote Betfair prices as the most reliable source of assessing a candidate’s chances of ultimately landing the job.This book is solely concerned with betting on Premier League markets. If you’ve never placed a beton Betfair before you’d be advised to read “Betfair for Dummies” for a thorough explanation of how itall works, from depositing money into your account, to the difference between backing and laying andhow to ensure you win on a market whatever the outcome, also known as a “green book”.The 2009/10 season promises to be a cracker on the pitch and should, as ever, make for excitingbetting prospects on Betfair. Whether you prefer to stake your money on season-long bets such asthe Premier League winner market or prefer to get involved on a match-by-match basis, this guideshould hopefully point you in the right direction so you’re fully prepared when all the action kicks off onthe 15
th
August.
Reader Offer: Free £25 Bet from Betfair. Join Today, CLICK BELOWClick Here To Join Today!
 
3
BETFAIR PREMIER LEAGUE EBOOK
DOING YOUR HOMEWORK: STATS AND RESOURCES
By Tobias Gourlay 
It does matter more when there is money on it, Sky Bet, but you don’t mention that it is also likely tocost more unless research is done into where to put that money.As the new football season approaches, the most serious – and successful - punters are preparing totake a long-term view on the Premier League. Not for them the last-minute wager on the match theyare about to go to the pub for. Well, occasionally, perhaps, but only once some homework has beendone.Playing a long game means being prepared to assess your P&L line on a seasonal basis. Whether apunter makes 25 bets a season or 2,500 bets a season, the principle of value remains the same.Briefly, Betfair’s odds on a particular outcome reflect someone’s view on how likely that outcome is.For example, odds of 1.25 – Manchester United’s price to win their opening-day home game againstBirmingham – suggest the bet will pay out 80% of the time; if the match was played 100 times, Unitedwould win 80 times.If someone has an idea that United would actually win that match 90 times out of 100, they shouldtake that bet because, if they are right, after the 100
th
game they would have a profit equivalent to thepayouts from the 10 extra matches they won (therein lies the holy grail of value). Assuming – quitereasonably, experience tells us – that no one makes the right bet all of the time, following the valueseems to be the surest way to long-term profit.Now, where would someone get such an idea about the value in United’s price? They might be a fanwho makes a leap of faith every time he places a bet. They might have done some qualitative analysisand decided that the Darren Fletcher-Anderson midfield axis is underrated and will be to the fore inthe coming campaign.Better, perhaps, they might know that Manchester United have won 18 of their last 20 similamatches. In which case, they take the 1.25 price because (assuming all other factors are constant) itis better than the 1.10 they think it should be.Some punters will be prepared to wade through every Premier League game ever played to find ariveting stat like the one above.That’s great, but for those with less time on their hands – perhaps they have a job or a girlfriend –there are internet resources to help them out. Football-data.co.uk, for example, provides freespreadsheets containing information that can help identify value bets across many markets.BettorLogic.com releases statistically based betting recommendations each week, as well as titbits of quantitative information about the importance of individual players to their clubs, in the hope thatreaders will then pay them for more comprehensive data.The free scraps hint at trends that others in the market might have missed and can form the basis of value bets to be made again and again through the season.Betfair’s own www.stats.betradar.com/statistics/betfaircom/?language=en page will provide basicstatistical support (or not) to those with pre-conceived ideas about how a match will go off. Reckonthat Tottenham’s opening-day home fixture with Liverpool is going to be a low-scorer? It is easy to findout here that 13/19 league games at White Hart Lane produced -2.5 Goals last season, just like 11/19of the Reds’ away matches. Those numbers suggest 1.60 would be a fair price. Closer to kick-off, theprice will probably settle around 1.90. That’s some value right there, if the numbers on their ownconvince you.
Reader Offer: Free £25 Bet from Betfair. Join Today, CLICK BELOWClick Here To Join Today!

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