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(Source data: CIA World Fact Book)
‘Comment’ 
 The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due ToEnvironmental Changes
 
2008 migration status
 
 The ‘tidal drift’ effect of migration due to environmental changes
 Throughout history migration has been a fact of life for many people, be it for purposes of work, conflict
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or environmental reasons. There are also reasons for migration whenenvironmental stress combines with economic stress; say at a time when general poverty isexacerbated by drought and poor crop yields. There is also the traditional seasonal migration,mostly in agriculture, whereby many travel within or over borders to take advantage of cropharvesting periods, lasting 4 to 6 months, although harvest cycles can be followed for 8months or more.Why tidal drift? As much as climate changes will affect the environment, not all of thesechanges will be detrimental and there will be some environmental benefits. Where climateschange dramatically and food production becomes difficult, community members will ‘drift’(voluntarily or encouraged) and relocate to areas where agricultural production is still viable.Where climate change is beneficial, these areas will also cause ‘drifts’ of migrants to takeadvantage of benefits. However, how ‘long-term’ these benefits will be is not known, althoughmany migrants that are pushed will be pushed towards areas where benefits in agriculturalproduction are seen and governments may encourage this, in order to avoid furtheroverburdening the urban areas. Where ‘push’ becomes the operative word is where centralgovernments have recognised that certain areas are no longer viable for agriculturalproposes, or where water levels are insufficient to meet industrial needs and communities arepushed out by government decree to force resettlement. There is no doubt that parts of the globe are altering due to changes in the climate andespecially so where food production has declined sufficiently to cause alarm amongst localcommunities. Local communities are well used to tolerating climate changes (drought,flooding etc) that last a season or two or in some examples, a year or two; but when thesechanges start to exceed a time period beyond which it is very difficult to maintain areasonable lifestyle; then relocation becomes a viable option within these communities. 
(Some of the effects of climate change in Zambia, Africa)
 There are many examples where family members have left a home area to gain employmentto [a] relieve a family budget by removing members of that family or [b], by providing extraincome for that family from afar, where part of the earned income is repatriated to the home.
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A ‘conflict migrant’ differs from one categorised as a ‘conflict refugee’ in that a conflict migrant willmove prior to a conflict outbreak when conflict seems to be likely; whereas a conflict refugee will fleean area after an outbreak of conflict.
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wofer’s comments
 
During the expected climate changes, migration will primarily be affected by the ability of many rural areas to produce food beyond a point where self-sufficiency is no longer feasible,although some family members may have already be providing money from employmentopportunities outside of the home area. One reason why agricultural production has fallen indeveloping countries is that the old method of ‘slash and burn’ agriculture has had to beabandoned in favour of ‘modern’ agricultural techniques. Slash and burn agriculture allowedfarmers to cut down bush and burn it and for two or three years plant crops on the clearedarea. After two or three years, the farmers moved to another area and the system wasrepeated. Generally the farmers did not return to any previously used land for 15 to 20 years,allowing recovery of the soil structure and fertility. When ‘modern’ agricultural techniqueswere introduced the farmers were encouraged to use hybrid varieties and inorganic fertilisersrepeatedly on the same piece of soil. When modern agriculture was encouraged the farmerswere not told that soil management is crucial to the success of the modern system. Thus,most soils have no structure and are unable to retain moisture for very long and wind and rainhave now eroded the topsoil to an extent where many topsoils used are of little value to foodproducers.As can be seen from many reports and papers presented, urbanisation is becoming a majorproblem in some countries with the majority of new urban dwellers coming from the ruralareas. These may at first be single family members that have migrated for economic reasons,but are often followed by whole families and thus we have economic environmental migrants,who, on the whole do not have suitable skills to be able to compete with those that haveresided in the urban areas for some time.From the rural-urban migration we are seeing conflict issues arise, mostly due to competitionfor employment opportunities, racial (or tribal) issues, stress on social services and, as is seenmore and more, conflict over basic food
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supplies. We therefore have potential food producersmigrating to the urban areas, reducing a local capacity to provide basic foods. It is in theseareas where major conflicts will erupt with greater violence as basic resources decline. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) (and others) have pointed out in researchdocumentation that by 2050 there is likely to be 200 million environmental migrantsthroughout the world and it can only be assumed that by 2100 this number may increasemany fold; or many would be environmental migrants may perish in famines. IOM’s use of theterm ‘push – pull’ gives a good indication of the effect on communities worldwide, as thechanges become more noticeable.In ‘Confronting a Rising Tide: A Proposal for a Convention on Climate change Refugees’, byBonnie Docherty and Tyler Giannini of the Harvard Law School, face the increasing concernabout those people that will be displaced by the affects of climate change and like manyothers face the challenge of defining the status of those that face being displaced. Those thatface displacement because of global climate changes may chose to relocate to avoid theconsequences of change and those that have to flee a particular change situation may betermed as refugees and thus there may be a need to define the terms ‘migrant or refugee’,including the many variables involved. The present estimates of (up to) 200 million people (around 2% of the estimate totalpopulation of the world by 2050) being displaced by climate change by 2050 may be relevantto known (or projected) consequences, leaving out probabilities due to other consequences.With poor soil management over many generations there are already many millions that are(possibly) on the verge of migrating to the urban areas, due to ever declining crop yields andever increasing pest and disease infestations. As with some other published documents on the
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For this purpose ‘basic foods’ includes potable water.
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wofer’s comments
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